The Curious Case of Tim Tebow
In all honesty, Tebow’s stats aren’t that bad. Sure he doesn’t complete a lot of passes, but when he does he makes them count….Tim Tebow adds about 3.5 points per game to his team over a replacement level quarterback. That’s just slightly below league average, and better than the 1 extra point per game that Kyle Orton was adding earlier in the season….With a rating of 0.66, against an average opponent rating of -0.49, should Denver really be 6-1? Looking at their actual schedule, rather than just the average opponent, the Last 7 rating predicts that Denver would win on average only 3.47 out of the 7 games if they had to play them again. That means they won 2.5 more than they should’ve, a Luck Rating of 2.5. That seems reasonable, given how many fourth quarter comebacks they needed over this stretch…Being lucky is nice, and some might contend that it’s actually skill in the clutch or even something greater. Unfortunately for Broncos fans it shouldn’t be expected to continue. We’ve covered the topic of luck before, and found that what we call luck doesn’t generally carry over from season to season in football.
I would have went with 2.5334239, but, hey, that's just me.
And as far as luck goes, as Frank Sinatra once said: "Luck be a smokin' hot latina whispering, I'll take the Broncos tonight."