OTC: Broncos still in line to get four compensatory picks

Douglas Lee Mar 18, 2015 7:00 PM

Last Call On The 2015 Compensatory Pick Projections
overthecap.com

Some I feel quite confident in, such as the very first compensatory pick that will almost certainly be a 3rd round pick to New England for Aqib Talib (those will be highlighted in green). There are others I feel will be awarded but may be off by a round due to missing the cutoffs too far or from improper cancellations (those will be highlighted in yellow).

Our friend Nick Korte is projecting Denver to receive a fourth-rounder in return for Zane Beadles, a sixth-rounder for Shaun Phillips, another possible sixth-rounder for Knowshon Moreno, and a seventh-rounder for Robert Ayers.

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

Yes, it puts them in play for a fourth pick, but I have no idea who that pick is for or what round it will be. I still need to find out the contract values of Tamme, Unrein, and Darian Stewart to know that. My guess is that it's a 7th, but that's very much a guess. If Tamme's APY is higher than about $2.4M APY it could be a 6th.

Posted by Nick on 2015-03-19 11:24:32

Does the Tamme signing improve the Broncos comp situation at all?

Posted by Yahmule on 2015-03-19 11:16:57

Okay. That's what I was missing. Much appreciated Nick.

Posted by orangeandblueaussie on 2015-03-19 00:42:05

The base point for comp pick values is the total contract's average per year (APY) instead of the first year cap charge. Ward signed a 4 year, $22.5M deal for $5.625 million per year. For 2015, I estimated the 4th/5th cutoff at $5.644M APY. That's very barely a 5th round value, but the problem is that Pro Bowl bid Ward got, and the formula also boosts value based on that. I don't know what exactly the Pro Bowl bonus is, but I think it'll be enough to make up the $19,000 APY difference, meaning Ward has to cancel out DRC instead. The best thing we can hope for is that I'm really off on that cutoff point.

Posted by Nick on 2015-03-19 00:06:08

Hey Nick,

Thanks for all the hard work on this.

Mate, given that TJ's salary cap number was only $3.25m last year, wouldn't he be a long way from being a 4th round consideration? Are you factoring in significant playing time/quality points to get him up to that level? You posted a table back in January which showed that the salary cut off for even a fifth round cut off was around $4.5m.

I do understand that there are significant intangibles in play here but where am i going wrong if I'm quietly optimistic that we may get that extra 4th rounder instead of 6th rounder?

Posted by orangeandblueaussie on 2015-03-18 21:45:23

This has to do with 2016, but Adam Schefter just tweeted that Unrein signed with the Chargers. As a fan I'm bummed because I like Unrein and hate seeing good Broncos go to division rivals. But the silver lining is that this just gave Denver one of their 6th round comp picks back, and took a 6th away from San Diego at the same time. This did surprise me as I didn't think anyone else was going to sign him after June 1. Now if Irving will finally sign elsewhere that would put the Broncos with the four pick max.

Posted by Nick on 2015-03-18 19:49:57

Most people know this by now, but just to recap, the reason Moreno is in yellow is because if TJ Ward is valued one round lower, the 6th for Moreno will turn into a 4th for DRC. I don't think it will happen because Ward was named to the Pro Bowl, but it's close enough that it's worth mentioning.

Posted by Nick on 2015-03-18 19:13:15

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