Klis: Broncos might draft another quarterback

Douglas Lee Apr 7, 2015 8:58 PM

Broncos Mailbag: Why Demaryius Thomas' contract holdout may not work in his favor
www.denverpost.com

I can see the Broncos taking a quarterback in the second or third round. I think they almost have to with Manning playing this season at 39 years old and Brock Osweiler in the final year of his contact. Brett Hundley, Sean Mannion, Bryce Petty and Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson would be possibilities.

I'm not buying this, unless John Elway & Co. are less enamored with Osweiler than they say (possible, but they would have traded him, right?). As long as they see him as their QB of the future, Osweiler's pending free agency shouldn't be an issue. In that case, a summer or midseason extension would make sense for both sides.

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

I knew a yamule from ysondre
Posted by Genju on 2015-04-09 18:33:35

Well, not we're on the same page. I think that you and I agree that Manning staying a fourth year, ultimately, is more likely to set the team back a bit than give them a legitimate shot at a title - I look forward to being wrong.

At the end of the day, I just think that Osweiler staying is too mutually beneficial not to happen. That, admittedly, may be wishful thinking - but that's what I believe. It seems like Elway really likes this guy.

Posted by Drew on 2015-04-08 21:57:45

Been to a lot of 85 point matches have you?
Posted by Genju on 2015-04-08 19:56:52

Mallet sort of washed out in NE, so I'd call him more of a fixer upper than Oz.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2015-04-08 19:02:33

He made an NFL roster for three years. He had a good run in college. Again, I agree, I'm not saying Oz is the second coming of anything, but I don't think it's a given we can just sign the guy without having competition from other teams. If no one does come after him, then maybe we shouldn't be keeping him around in the first place.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2015-04-08 19:01:52

They give draft pick QBs decent money. I know it's not the same thing. But again, I just think the risk is fairly high that he walks. Is that the end of the world? No. But he'll be a casualty of Manning staying around.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2015-04-08 18:59:26

Based on how Humphrey's career turned out, I think Denver was wise not to give him a pay raise. See http://espn.go.com/colleges/al....

Posted by RSH, Esq. on 2015-04-08 18:12:41

Absolutely. I think many have and should operate under the assumption that Latimer is DT insurance. If Latimer shows promise this offseason, the team may wait on giving that big contract.

Of course, they could still give DT a huge contract, Latimer could develop, they could eventually sign Latimer to a more team-friendly extension, and Denver could cut or trade DT a year or two down the line. Little is binding.

Posted by Drew on 2015-04-08 16:08:13

One possibility would be this: Extend his contract this summer, giving him a $1.5M signing bonus and fully guaranteeing his $660,000 base salary (it's currently not guaranteed, based on OTC's info). Then give him a $2.5M base salary in 2016, injury-only guarantee, becoming a full guarantee if he's on the roster on a certain date. The Broncos could add incentives to the second year (or even the first year) based on games active, starts made, and playoff trips.

Those two years ensure Brock nearly $5M in guaranteed money, while protecting the Broncos in that they pay him backup money should he not prove to be the starter.

The third year would be like you suggested, ensuring Osweiler gets a real chance to negotiate an extension worthy of a starting QB, if he proves he is the guy.

Posted by Bob Morris on 2015-04-08 14:54:11

Exactly. I can see why Denver would want to, and should attempt to sign Oz to a reasonable contract. What I cannot see is any reason from Oz's perspective that he should entertain those thoughts. Manning has never said this is his last season. It may be, or he may be the next Favre. If Oz signs now he is rolling the dice that he will have a chance to start next year. If he does not sign he can wait things out and take the best opportunity that presents itself next off-season. If I am his agent that is what I would advice. If Manning gets hurt this season and Oz comes in and stinks up the joint he will have made a mistake, but if the opposite is true and he plays like a promising qb in the league he will end up signing with Denver or someone else for far more than Elway is going to offer him this summer. I could see Elway drafting a qb this year not because he has no idea if oz will be around next year.

Posted by Banjo on 2015-04-08 14:09:40

Yeah, Mallett is the archetypical example, since he was also drafted to sit behind a HOF QB for four years. If I were Osweiler though I would want to negotiate that player option, to cover the case for outplaying the contract. That's because starting QBs not on their rookie deals are getting paid ridiculous amounts.

Posted by Nick on 2015-04-08 13:23:56

For an example of what Nick is talking about, look at Ryan Mallett's contract with the Texans. Mallett is getting paid more this season than what he got last year, yet it still protects the Texans, given that they aren't committing too much money to a QB who has an extremely small sample size of work in the regular season.

http://overthecap.com/player/r...

I believe Osweiler is worthy of a similar deal. The Broncos could always revisit his contract if Osweiler shows he is a worthy starter over the course of a full season (and I imagine the Texans will do the same if Mallett wins the starting job and excels at it).

Posted by Bob Morris on 2015-04-08 13:03:33

Too many other needs to go QB in a premium draft spot.

For that matter, has there been any organizational hint that this is PM's last stand?

I, like many, want to see what Oz has to offer on the field. If the dice must be rolled on a successor not named Oz, roll 'em next year.

Posted by TD 2 HOF on 2015-04-08 11:59:19

BM - that struck a chord. Bobby Humphrey piled up 577 yards in 4 games in 1990. I thought he was a very good RB for Denver that year. Sad to see him hold out - although he had a point. I wish Denver had torn up his contract and given him at least a small raise.

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2015-04-08 11:48:55

Something no one seems to be talking about:

Is DT a great Bronco? Yes.
Does he deserve to get paid? Absolutely.
Is he a top 5 receiver? Probably. (But in my mind not for sure.)
Is he worth 16 mil a year? No way.

To me, no receiver is worth that much. I'm having a hard time coming to grips with the franchise tag amount of almost $13 million. I don't begrudge DT and his agent trying to max out his money, but I just don't believe you can have a Super Bowl roster with that much money devoted to wide receiver. At least not long term.

If DT and his agent are set on getting close to Megatron money, then the Broncos are just going to have to let him walk and let another team pay him.

Posted by DougEngland on 2015-04-08 11:37:25

lawl! Win ☝

Posted by Genju on 2015-04-08 09:11:51

I think the Broncos are in a position where a QB would be a good move but they can afford to be patient if the value/quality isn't there.

Arguments for drafting a QB:
-If they drafted a QB this year they would not only get a year or two to develop him would still likely get several years of him starting at rookie contract value. With Osweiler they would have to start paying him market value next year.
-If they drafted someone they felt was ready to step into the backup role they could trade Osweiler. If not they could keep Osweiler for another year and let him develop with no pressure as third string.
-Even good prospects are 50/50 shots at best (including Osweiler). Get another one and you increase your odds.

Arguments for not drafting a QB:
-The class next year will likely have as good or better prospects and depth than this year.
-If Manning retires, resigning Osweiler shouldn't be a problem as it would be mutually beneficial. If Manning stays another year they could draft a QB next year and still give him a year of development.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2015-04-08 08:18:31

The closest "comp sale" is Mallet. The Texans had no trouble signing him to a reasonable 2 yr/7M deal.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2015-04-08 08:07:21

People also remember the Scott Mitchell contract.

Posted by BroncoManiaNC on 2015-04-08 07:51:12

This is a gem right here:

(Paraphrase) "I remember asking Todd Helton if Peyton Manning had the arm strength to be a QB in the NFL and now 18 years later in the twilight of his career my question is legit!"

What was I think actually clicking on the article?

Posted by Jon Tollerud on 2015-04-08 05:22:48

there is also a matter of cash for bonus money and cap space. right now we are at 141 mil for top 51. still have to have about 6 + mil for rookie contracts.

Guess that makes for Man ram and Colquit looking from the outside in, come mid TC.

Posted by Lonestar47 on 2015-04-08 00:18:12

IMO once again klis pulling something out of his ass to fill column inches.

Posted by Lonestar47 on 2015-04-08 00:15:44

Hundley has started twice as many games as Osweiller. Sure Os has been the in the NFL for 3 years but he gets little to no reps. At least Hundley started for his college team for a few years.

The biggest thing Osweiller has going for him is that he is a virtual unknown. He hasn't done anything to make teams think he can't be that guy (like Hundley has). At the same time, what has he done? In college or pros.

I'm not here to bad mouth him or anyone but the guy has very little starting or other experience. Hopefully he's the second coming of Aaron Rodgers but he certainly didn't have Rodgers pedigree coming out of school.

Posted by GMik - Broncologist on 2015-04-08 00:00:59

I really hope the Hundley to San Diego @ 17 rumors come true.

Posted by Yahmule on 2015-04-07 23:56:01

Sevens Rugby is pretty fun actually. Much different game but nonstop action.

Posted by GMik - Broncologist on 2015-04-07 23:55:40

There is a factor that has't bee discussed yet. Manning.

We are all working on the assumption that Manning will retire after this season. On that premise, it makes sense that Osweiler will be signable.

If Manning sticks around, I would never expect to see Osweiler sign to be a backup again. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if Manning is a Bronco in 2016.

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Posted by SSSAAAWWWDSA on 2015-04-07 23:54:37

That game is called "Australian Rules" football. A whole team full of kickers, kicking to each other. It's exhausting even to watch.

Posted by VonSwenson on 2015-04-07 23:10:19

I've seen you make similar posts in the past, and I completely understand your position.

However, I just don't see an analogous situation. When was the last time a backup with zero starting experience had a flood of bidders? Chicago and maybe even San Diego may poke around, but with Manning likely gone next year - I just don't see Denver, if they want him, having to put too much money down to keep him around.

Posted by Drew on 2015-04-07 22:49:13

how do you type these
Posted by Jim_Jebow on 2015-04-07 22:40:51

It's just good planning. We all know how important it is to have a good QB, and we all know the odds of finding an effective one in the draft are well under 50%. Yet it seems that despite understanding those two points, we expect our team to spend exactly one draft pick to find its "franchise" QB, and that's just not logical.

Extending Osweiler would certainly be easier to do this summer than next, but if I'm Elway I roll the dice and wait. If he's good, it will cost a lot more to do it later. But if he's not, they can let him walk without any cap implications. Considering we won't know if he can get the job done until we see him play on Sundays, it's a gamble that I'd be willing to take.

Posted by SterlingMalloryArcher on 2015-04-07 22:39:22

There's unknowns for both sides. If Osweiler doesn't cut it then he'd be kicking himself for not getting a moderate raise when he had the chance.

FWIW (and this may show how bad of a negotiator I am), the type of extension for Osweiler I'd craft is adding on 2-3 years that pays him moderately well but not into the range of a solid starter (there's a huge gap between the two types right now), and for the later years to have both a team option (if he sucks) and a player option (if he rocks it) to void the later year(s) if Osweiler's play isn't commensurate with his contract in either direction.

Posted by Nick on 2015-04-07 22:34:20

Again, why is it assumed that it will be easy to re-sign Osweiler? If I'm a team in need of a QB, would you rather draft a guy along the lines of a Huntley, or get a guy like Osweiler who is young, and experienced? I think there will be other bidders for Osweiler and his price will climb.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2015-04-07 22:27:12

Kickers are always the highest scoring guy on the team. What you really need is a team full of kickers! You could put up 75, 85 points a game, minimum.
Posted by Genju on 2015-04-07 22:27:00

This is the first I recall an IAOFM writer suggesting an Osweiler extension and I couldn't agree more. I know there were some whispers of this in the Denver Post and it makes all the sense in the world. If the Broncos play as well as we hope in 2015, they won't be in position to grab a Day 1 starter at QB without giving up a ton of picks.

That said, I do think that there is logic in drafting a QB on Day 3 that could potentially be developed to backup and perhaps even compete with Brock down the line. Mannion has been my favorite QB for the Broncos this offseason and I think if he's there in the 5th round, he's worth a look. I've watched some film on him and - more than his size and arm - what jumped out to me was how bad Oregon State's supporting cast was. There were a lot of O-linemen just getting manhandled and drops. Look at him against USC. He made some bad throws, but he was also being harassed. I'd be curious to see him operate in Denver's more run-heavy scheme where he'd have cleaner pockets and quality targets to throw to.

Posted by Drew on 2015-04-07 22:07:31

I was in the middle of typing out a similar response, so I'll just say that I agree with SMA.

But I do agree with Doug on something I've said several times before: if they do want to keep Osweiler, they need to hammer out an extension for him this summer.

Posted by Nick on 2015-04-07 21:56:27

More options are better than less, regardless of what they think about Osweiler. What if he doesn't want to sign a long-term deal? What if he gets hurt? What if he's not up to the challenge on game day?

This is why I've been saying all along that a QB is in play on day 2. If the QB class was stronger at the the top, it would be a day 1 possibility.

Posted by SterlingMalloryArcher on 2015-04-07 21:52:48

I'm also not certain Klis really understands the difference between the various types of holdouts. There are those like Clady, who skipped offseason workouts, and those like Lelie, which extended into training camp when the team is evaluating its roster. And there is no evidence that Clady's holdout is the reason for his Lisfranic injury, but there is evidence that a holdout into training camp can cost a player a chance to prove himself (in the case of some rookies) or ensure himself a roster spot (as you never know which players who stand out in training camp might become worthy starters).

Clady was simply an example of a player biding his time until he absolutely he had to make a move. Demaryius Thomas is no different. That was not the case with Lelie, or the biggest example of a contract holdout costing a Broncos player big time, Bobby Humphery.

Posted by Bob Morris on 2015-04-07 21:35:14

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