Week 12 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: Strange Math for Jets
0.63 Denver at New England 0.37
Just like Vegas, Brian Burke's data says that against the Broncos, the Patriots are home dogs - a role they're completely unaccustomed to.
That said, New England is a far more balanced team than is Kansas City, and in terms of efficiency, a much better one.
Of course, Burke's efficiency-based probabilities don't account for the possibility that Wes Welker misses the game, nor that Alfonzo Dennard may be out for the Patriots.