Week 6 N.F.L. Game Probabilities
It has long been suspected that defenses on teams with excellent offenses are underrated by their statistics. Defenses may be strategically trading away yards and points in exchange for time off the clock, increasing their teams’ chances of winning at the expense of their statistical rankings.
So it’s likely that statistical models, like the one I use to estimate weekly game probabilities, do undervalue the defensive strength of teams with top offenses. But the effect isn’t large and won’t often make the difference between favorite and underdog.
Burke's point speaks to Ted's suggestion that the numbers make Denver's defense appear worse than it is. But, I think once Denver gets Champ Bailey back this week, and Von Miller the next, those numbers are going to start to change, and in a very significant manner.