Two-Point Conversion in the KC-DEN game
The difference in terms of absolute WP between the XP and the conversion attempt was only 1.2 percentage points. You might think that’s tiny, and in the grand scheme you’d be right. But coaches stay up watching film until their eyes bleed, looking for every last 0.1% edge. It’s not a good idea to toss away a percentage point here and a percentage point there.
Of course, the real problem here was that John Fox chose to kick from the two-yard line rather than go for the jugular.
TJ disagrees, but I'd rather give Peyton Manning a chance to seal the game right there. Even if he fails, the Chiefs are then looking at 98 yards to win (they still would have needed a touchdown, unless they'd gone for two earlier, as Burke suggests).