Burke: Chiefs’ luck is likely to run out on Sunday

N.F.L. Week 11 Game Probabilities: Can Chiefs Finish Undefeated?

Unfortunately for Chiefs fans, they’re far from a 96-percent kind of team. They’re much closer to a 50-percent kind of team that has been lucky so far.

The Chiefs’ formula for success includes solid defense and a low-risk offense, but the biggest factor in their success might be scheduling luck. Their opponents have been even weaker than traditional measures such as aggregate opponent records or stats would indicate, because they have had the good fortune of facing five straight backup quarterbacks.

Burke's data says the Broncos are a 78% favorite against the team most of the punditry has atop their power rankings. Of course, the only people who think the Chiefs are the best team in the league are the ones who won't look deeper than W-L record. (BTW, Burke's probabilities have been borne out in all of Denver's games, as they were underdogs only once - against Indy.)

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM