Week 13 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: The Value of Aaron Rodgers
0.71 Denver at Kansas City 0.29
This should figure, given that Burke's efficiency figures have Denver at #3 overall (#3 offense, #17 defense) and Kansas City all the way down at #21 (31, 7).
FWIW, I don't think Burke's model treats whatever perceived home-field advantage there is at Arrowhead for the Chiefs any differently than another team's HFA.