Week 5 Probabilities: Why Offense Is More Important Than Defense
One lesson from this exercise is that if a team could choose to be ranked No. 1 in the league on one side of the ball and average on the other, it should choose to be the best on offense. It also explains why we see great offensive teams tend to beat great defensive teams.
To illustrate Burke's point, the Broncos are #1 on offense and #24 on defense according to his model, while the Texans are #24 in offense and #1 on defense. Denver is #1 overall, while Houston is #7 (penalties are the other factor, but both teams rank poorly there).
This should only be a surprise to those stuck in the outdated "run the ball/stop the run to win SBs" mindset.
Anyway, even though they're going on the road to play a decent opponent, the Broncos are tied with the Dolphins (home versus the Ravens) for the heaviest favorites of Week 5, at 67%.