Barnwell: Tebow unlikely to keep winning close games, keep pick rate low, or improve accuracy

Can Tim Tebow Keep It Up?
www.grantland.com

In all, despite winning all those games with Tebow as the starter this year, the Broncos have actually been outscored by a total of two points in those games…So, in other words, the fact that Tebow’s started his career winning seven of his first ten starts shouldn’t tell us very much about what he’s likely to do going forward, but the fact that he’s done so while being outscored isn’t exactly a great sign…That jibes with our research that a team’s record in those close games from year-to-year is basically random and will revolve around the mean (a .500 record).

The numbers suggest that Tebow is exhibiting a sign of future professional viability, but even if he makes it as a professional quarterback, he’s been lucky to avoid those picks so far. He will have to pay the interception piper eventually…The bad news for Tebow is that a player’s completion percentage—unlike his interception rate—tends to stay pretty consistent as he gets more NFL experience.

Tim Tebow probably can’t win 70 percent of the time or pick up victories in 85 percent of his close games, but maybe he can sustain an incredibly low interception rate or win with an embarrassing completion percentage in a way that other players can’t. At the very least, it’s certainly going to be a lot of fun to see him try to pull it off.

The most encouraging part of Barnwell's piece is that Tebow has good company as far as low early INT rates go - other QBs who have started out with so few picks have eventually had much higher INT rates, but they also have gone on to have lengthy and successful careers. As for the point differential, we were just talking about that this morning and yesterday, and last week we covered the fact that low completion rates tend to be accompanied by high interception rates (comment 24). But of course, there's always the chance Tebow becomes the Black Swan of NFL quarterbacks.

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

2014 Offseason

Offseason coverage