Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 13
The New England Patriots are increasingly resembling the good-offense-bad-defense teams of recent seasons…At this point, they may just be a poor man’s Denver, which is a problem considering they’ll likely have to face the real Denver.
Denver remains at #3 in overall efficiency; another flag-filled game (10 for 75 yards and four first downs vs. KC) has them at #23 (tie) in penalty avoidance.
On offense, they're again #1 overall: #1 in passing, #7 (tie) at avoiding picks, #5 (tie) running, and dead last in fumbling, even with Sunday's clean performance.
Defensively, they're down to #19 (allowing KC 452 yards didn't help): #20 against the pass, #13 (tie) at intercepting the ball, and #3 (tie) versus the run.
Week 13 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: The Value of Aaron Rodgers
0.71 Denver at Kansas City 0.29
This should figure, given that Burke's efficiency figures have Denver at #3 overall (#3 offense, #17 defense) and Kansas City all the way down at #21 (31, 7).
FWIW, I don't think Burke's model treats whatever perceived home-field advantage there is at Arrowhead for the Chiefs any differently than another team's HFA.
Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 12
Denver’s ceiling may be a slightly above average pass defense, and they’re a couple injuries away from being a disaster. But average is good enough when paired with that offense.
Denver is #3 in both overall and offensive efficiency: passing the ball, their once enormous lead is now just a slim edge over the Chargers. They're #2 (tie) in interception avoidance, #6 (tie) in rushing success rate, and remain the most fumble-prone team.
On defense, they're #17 in overall efficiency: #19 against the pass, #12 (tie) at intercepting the ball, and #3 (tie) against the run. Another flag-filled game (nine penalties for 85 yards and three first downs) has them at #23 (tie) in penalty avoidance.
Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 11
The Chargers are the worst run defense and third-worst pass defense, which is unsurprising when you look at their non-Eric Weddle defensive personnel. Five of San Diego’s last six games are against the Chiefs, Broncos, Bengals and resurgent (!) Giants, so the 4-6 Chargers can probably kiss those wild-card ambitions goodbye.
Denver remains #3 overall, with New Orleans and Seattle having flipped the top two spots. On offense, the Broncos are still #1 overall (obviously): #1 in passing, #10 (tie) running, #2 in interceptions, and dead last in fumbles.
The defense has risen from #26 to #21 to #17 during the Broncos' three-game winning streak; they're now #19 (tie) versus the pass, #3 against the run, and #9 (tie) at intercepting passes. The flag-filled KC game dropped Denver from #15 to #20 in penalty avoidance.
N.F.L. Week 11 Game Probabilities: Can Chiefs Finish Undefeated?
Unfortunately for Chiefs fans, they’re far from a 96-percent kind of team. They’re much closer to a 50-percent kind of team that has been lucky so far.
The Chiefs’ formula for success includes solid defense and a low-risk offense, but the biggest factor in their success might be scheduling luck. Their opponents have been even weaker than traditional measures such as aggregate opponent records or stats would indicate, because they have had the good fortune of facing five straight backup quarterbacks.
Burke's data says the Broncos are a 78% favorite against the team most of the punditry has atop their power rankings. Of course, the only people who think the Chiefs are the best team in the league are the ones who won't look deeper than W-L record. (BTW, Burke's probabilities have been borne out in all of Denver's games, as they were underdogs only once - against Indy.)
Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 10
This late into the season, there aren’t really any more flukes. Injuries are really the one major variable that can still change a team’s fortunes, but it’s impossible to know when landscape-changing losses like Aaron Rodgers will happen.
Denver remains #1 in overall offense and passing efficiency, is #2 (tie) in interception avoidance, ranks #6 in rushing success rate, but is the most fumble prone.
The defense is #23 (tie) against the pass, #3 (tie) versus the run, #5 (tie) at intercepting passes, and all the way up to #21 in overall efficiency; we'll call it the Highly Predictable Von Miller and Wesley Woodyard Effect. We'll be surprised if the Broncos are very far outside the top 10 by season's end, if at all.
Since Kevin Vickerson took a week off from drawing personal fouls, Denver is now #15 (tie) in penalty avoidance.
Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 9
But Denver was on a bye, and Seattle’s 21-point comeback win over the winless Bucs was hardly inspiring. So Cincy remains atop the rankings for another week, albeit now in a tie with the Seahawks.
Denver remains #1 in passing efficiency, and is #4 (tie) in interception avoidance; running the ball, they're #6 (tie), but 31st in fumble avoidance (only Seattle is worse). This all adds up to a #1 overall ranking for offensive efficiency.
On defense, they're #24 against the pass, #4 in interception rate, and #2 (tie) against the run, putting them at #26 overall on defense. Thanks to Kevin Vickerson, they're #19 (tie) at avoiding penalties.
As for their upcoming opponent, San Diego ranks #3 on offense, but is dead last on defense, and they haven't added Von Miller to theirs...
Megatron's Mega Performance: Efficiency Leaders Through Week 8
Another Bronco, Knowshon Moreno, still leads all running backs in terms of total efficiency added. He’s doing it both on the ground (+14.71 NEP) and in the receiving game (+24.04 NEP).
Shady McCoy can have the league's rushing crown; Knowshon Moreno has three times as many touchdowns (nine to McCoy's three), and according to Keith Goldner's data, 37% more efficiency added.
Of course, Knowshon's team has more than twice as many wins as does McCoy's (seven to three, plus a 52-20 head-to-head beatdown). A large portion of this surely owes to the chasmic differences between quarterbacks, but still - Knowshon Moreno definitely does not suck.
Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 8
Cincinnati’s reign likely won’t last long, as a 40-point win against a competitive team is such a massive outlier that there is nowhere to go but down. However, the Bengals were the fourth-ranked team last week, so this week merely reaffirmed their status among the elite.
Denver remains in the #1 spot for passing efficiency, although Peyton Manning's three picks dropped them into a tie at #5 at interception avoidance. They're #5 in rushing success rate, but their continuing fumble problems have them at #31 in that department; they of course remain at #1 in overall offensive efficiency.
The defense already climbed from #26 last week to #20 in overall efficiency (welcome back, Wes and Von); #23 (tie) against the pass, #3 at intercepting passes, and #3 (tie) versus the run. Overall, they're #19 in penalty avoidance, but would probably be #10 were it not for the exploits of one Kevin Vickerson.
Week 8 N.F.L. Game Probabilities
0.15 Washington at Denver 0.85
Only Seattle (89% on the road (!) at St. Louis) is a heavier favorite this week, as per Burke's efficiency rankings.
Washington ranks #13 in passing, #18 in interception avoidance, #5 (tie) running the ball, and #23 (tie) in fumble avoidance, for a #17 ranking in offensive efficiency.
On defense, they're tied with Denver at #29 against the pass, #20 in picks, #24 (tie) against the run, and #28 overall. Their #24 ranking in penalty avoidance combines with the rest to put them at #25 in overall efficiency.