Megatron's Mega Performance: Efficiency Leaders Through Week 8
Another Bronco, Knowshon Moreno, still leads all running backs in terms of total efficiency added. He’s doing it both on the ground (+14.71 NEP) and in the receiving game (+24.04 NEP).
Shady McCoy can have the league's rushing crown; Knowshon Moreno has three times as many touchdowns (nine to McCoy's three), and according to Keith Goldner's data, 37% more efficiency added.
Of course, Knowshon's team has more than twice as many wins as does McCoy's (seven to three, plus a 52-20 head-to-head beatdown). A large portion of this surely owes to the chasmic differences between quarterbacks, but still - Knowshon Moreno definitely does not suck.
Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 8
Cincinnati’s reign likely won’t last long, as a 40-point win against a competitive team is such a massive outlier that there is nowhere to go but down. However, the Bengals were the fourth-ranked team last week, so this week merely reaffirmed their status among the elite.
Denver remains in the #1 spot for passing efficiency, although Peyton Manning's three picks dropped them into a tie at #5 at interception avoidance. They're #5 in rushing success rate, but their continuing fumble problems have them at #31 in that department; they of course remain at #1 in overall offensive efficiency.
The defense already climbed from #26 last week to #20 in overall efficiency (welcome back, Wes and Von); #23 (tie) against the pass, #3 at intercepting passes, and #3 (tie) versus the run. Overall, they're #19 in penalty avoidance, but would probably be #10 were it not for the exploits of one Kevin Vickerson.
Monday Morning Quarterback
• Manning 6,000. I wrote last year about the possibility of a quarterback, in the not-too-distant future, throwing for 6,000 yards in a season. Aaron Rodgers, I theorized, would have the best shot. I’m not saying Peyton Manning’s going to do it this year, but let’s acknowledge the greatness of the first-half MVP here. In Denver’s 7-1 start, Manning has averaged 365 passing yards per game. Other-worldly, obviously. But let’s say he adds one medium-range skinny post per game in the final eight games. Say, an extra gain of 20 per game. If Manning averages 385 yards per game in his final eight, he’ll hit 6,000. As it is, he’s on pace for 5,838 passing yards with 58 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Yards will get tougher in December, of course. Manning’s got two home games in five days in the last month, including a Thursday nighter against San Diego Dec. 12. But who’d have ever thought throwing for 6,000 would be remotely possible so soon after 5,000 started getting hit?
Averaging 385 yards per game is not happening.
Week 8 N.F.L. Game Probabilities
0.15 Washington at Denver 0.85
Only Seattle (89% on the road (!) at St. Louis) is a heavier favorite this week, as per Burke's efficiency rankings.
Washington ranks #13 in passing, #18 in interception avoidance, #5 (tie) running the ball, and #23 (tie) in fumble avoidance, for a #17 ranking in offensive efficiency.
On defense, they're tied with Denver at #29 against the pass, #20 in picks, #24 (tie) against the run, and #28 overall. Their #24 ranking in penalty avoidance combines with the rest to put them at #25 in overall efficiency.
Brandon Meriweather appeals ban
Washington Redskins safety Brandon Meriweather has appealed his two-game suspension for illegal hits against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, a league source told ESPN NFL Insider Ed Werder.
The appeal is scheduled to be heard Wednesday with a decision to follow on whether Meriweather will be permitted to play in Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos.
Bucs safety Dashon Goldson had his suspension overturned earlier this year, but that was only a one-game ban. We're guessing Meriweather does no better than a reduction to one game, which would keep him out against Denver.
With Washington's other starting safety, Reed Doughty, recovering from a concussion, the team re-signed safety Justin Pugh on Tuesday. Safety has been a difficult position for Shanny & Co. to fill, apparently.
Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 7
The Kansas City Chiefs may be the NFL’s lone undefeated team, but their eighth place ranking is an embodiment of how the fundamental factors that determine who wins football games have changed. Overall, the Chiefs possess the top-ranked defense and 26th-ranked offense. The Broncos, angling to become the first 14-2 fifth-seed ever, are the exact opposite, with the top-ranked offense and 26th-ranked defense. That Denver is second and has a GWP 11 percentage points higher illustrates how a prolific passing game is the ultimate trump card.
Denver remains #1 in passing efficiency and avoiding interceptions, is #9 in rushing success and #31 in fumbling (only Seattle is worse). On defense, they're #29 (tie) against the pass and #11 (tie) at intercepting passes, and #3 (tie) at stopping the run. Of course, stopping the run does you no good if you can't contain the pass. Overall, they're #21 (tie) in penalty avoidance, and it's kind of hard to believe they're not worse.
Report: Agent who bungled Dumvervil deal fined, suspended
Now, seven months later, FOXSports.com reports that the NFL Players Association has fined Magid $25,000 and suspended him six months for negligence in the fax mishap that at the time cost Dumervil $4 million (it’s what his restructured deal would have been worth with the Broncos this season).
John Elway & Co. had every opportunity to re-sign Elvis, so if you're upset that Doom's in Baltimore (doing very well, albeit playing only 2/3 of the snaps he used to), feel free to blame them. But as for how Dumervil was cut loose? That's all on
Bob Loblaw Marty Magid.
ReFo: Broncos @ Colts, Week 7
Manning wasn’t the only player returning in this game – the Broncos got Von Miller back after his suspension and though he took a little while to warm up, by the second quarter he was timing the snap well and terrorizing the Colts’ line. He didn’t earn a sack from his performance but notched two knockdowns and six further pressures from 35 pass rushes, double that of the next best Broncos defender.
Peyton Manning's homecoming highlights Week 7 in the NFL
How you react to your ex’s happiness depends on two factors. The first is your current romantic situation. If you are eating microwave beef stew over the kitchen sink for dinner, or dating someone who crushes cigarettes out in Sambuca shot glasses, you may find yourself bitter and stalkery. If your love life is providing even a little fulfillment, it’s easier to move on.
Typically hilarious stuff from Tanier. However, given the content of Jim Irsay's tweeting history, it may actually be more truth than metaphor.
Week 7 N.F.L. Probabilities: Jets Over Patriots
0.48 Denver at Indianapolis 0.52
Anyone who saw the efficiency numbers from earlier in the week shouldn't be surprised by these probabilities.
A couple of things to keep in mind: one, Burke isn't "picking" these games - his model is. Two, the data also isn't suggesting Sunday's game will be close - rather, that if these two teams were to play 100 times in Indy, the Colts should win 52 times.
So, when PMFM drops 50 points on Irsay's boys and tells Jim to GFH, he won't have proven Burke's math wrong, per se.