One trick almost all stats guys have in their bag is sample size.
If you cherry pick your sample size to your desires, you can make the numbers say almost anything.
For example, if a team loses 59-14, you can always focus on that one game and make a wickedly-good argument that the loser of that game was perhaps the worst team in history.
Now that the Broncos have finished 8 weeks of play, these tricks become less useful. 8 games turns into 81 drives, 316 passes, and 185 rushes.
In short, it’s getting harder to hide.
With this in mind, I present to you this week’s Stats That Don’t Lie, which aren’t really bad. They’re just drawn that way.
Broncos Offense - Through 8 Weeks
| Team | Yards / Game | Yards / Play | Rushing Yards / Game | Rushing Yards / Play | Passing Yards / Game | Passing Yards / Play | Interception Rate | Sacks / Pass Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 363.5 | 5.57 | 67.3 | 2.91 | 296.3 | 7.5 | 1.58% | 6.65% |
| NFL | 335.4 | 5.3 | 112.4 | 4.16 | 223 | 6.55 | 3.04% | 6.42% |
| Differences | 28.1 | 0.27 | -45.1 | -1.25 | 73.3 | 0.95 | -1.46% | 0.23% |
| Rank | 10 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| Team | First Downs / Game | Punt Return Avg | Kickoff Return Avg | 3rd Down Pct | Red Zone Pct | Goal to Go% | Avg Time of Possession | Points / Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 19.9 | 9.6 | 24.2 | 36.61% | 41.38% | 75.00% | 29:23:00 | 19.3 |
| NFL | 18.9 | 9.6 | 23.2 | 38.09% | 50.57% | 70.03% | 30:00:00 | 21.5 |
| Differences | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1.48% | -9.19% | 4.97% | -2.06% | -2.2 |
| Rank | 12 | 17 | 13 | 22 | 26 | 9 | 21 | 22 |
Those running stats are like a kick to the testicles—it hurts real bad, and probably will for some time, but with some rest and ice, it might get better.
On the positive side of the ledger, the interception rate is fantastic and the sack rate is average, which means it’s better than you are led to believe (remember, it’s not total sacks that matter, but how many sacks you give up as a percentage of total snaps). I can’t complain about the punt and kickoff returns, which could be better. But they could be a whole lot worse.
The Broncos are ranked 22nd and 26th in 3rd-down and red-zone efficiency, respectively - which I don’t have to tell you, isn’t what the doctor ordered.
Broncos Defense - Through 8 Weeks
| Team | Yards / Game | Yards / Play | Rushing Yards / Game | Rushing Yards / Play | Passing Yards / Game | Passing Yards / Play | Interception Rate | Sacks / Pass Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 359 | 5.76 | 154.6 | 4.6 | 204.4 | 7.4 | 2.26% | 4.07% |
| NFL | 335.4 | 5.3 | 112.4 | 4.16 | 223 | 6.55 | 3.04% | 6.42% |
| Differences | 23.6 | 0.46 | 42.2 | 0.44 | -18.6 | 0.85 | -0.78% | -2.35% |
| Rank | 24 | 28 | 31 | 26 | 7 | 29 | 24 | 29 |
| Team | First Downs / Game | Punt Return Avg | Kickoff Return Avg | 3rd Down Pct | 4th Down Pct | Red Zone Pct | Goal to Go% | Points / Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 19.5 | 10.8 | 26.4 | 42.42% | 50.00% | 69.57% | 80.00% | 27.9 |
| NFL | 18.9 | 9.6 | 23.2 | 38.09% | 48.87% | 50.57% | 70.03% | 21.5 |
| Differences | 0.6 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 4.33% | 1.13% | 19% | 9.97% | 6.4 |
| Rank | 23 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 14 | 30 | 25 | 29 |
If the running game is a kick to the testicles, let’s call the Broncos’ inability to stop the run and their lack of sacks a boot right up the ass. The Broncos are ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per play; they are 29th in sack rate. This means there are 3 teams who pressure the quarterback less—Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay. Two of these teams aren’t sniffing the playoffs. The third mistakenly believes itself the best team in the NFC.
As bad as the Broncos are offensively on 3rd downs and in the red zone, notice that the defense is doing everything they can to match this futility. Two teams are actually worse than the Broncos’ defense in the red zone. I think they play in the lingerie league, however.
Stupid Is As Stupid Does
There are those who would make the following argument (hell, let’s say I’m one of them):
1) Poorly-coached teams are those that are undisciplined.
2) Undisciplined Teams commit a lot of penalties, fumble the ball a ton, and demonstrate poor special-teams play.
3) If your team does all of these things, they are poorly coached.
Well, Josh McDaniels haters, here is some red meat for you:
| Team | Penalties Yards/Game | Fumbles/Game | Starting Field Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 66.8 | 2.1 | 26.58 |
| NFL | 54.1 | 1.48 | 30.07 (NFL Median) |
| Differences | -12.70 | -0.62 | -3.49 |
| Rank | 26 | 29 | 32 |
Notice that I didn’t include turnovers in general. That’s because turnovers, it can be argued, involve luck—a tipped interception, a bouncing fumble recovery. What doesn’t involve luck (generally) is dumping the ball on the ground in the first place.
The Broncos—at least through 8 weeks—demonstrate a propensity for penalties, fumbles, and are the most lenient when it comes to giving their opposition a short field.
I’ll let you decide if it’s a reflection on Josh McDaniels.
A Non-Traditional Stat That Hits You Like Steve Atwater
Normally, I end with some non-traditional stats, but who wants to pile on this week? Me, that’s who.
According to our friend Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats, Laurence Maroney ranks 3rd worst, Correll Buckhalter ranks 4th worst, and Knowshon Moreno ranks 6th worst in the NFL in running back Success Rate. This is the percentage of plays in which a team experiences a positive expected points value while that player is in the game. For the record, here is where the three stand:
Maroney: 25.5%
Buckhalter: 25.8%
Moreno: 30.5%
Peyton Hillis? He’s at 44%.
At least you can comfort yourself in the fact that these running stats have a smaller sample size.
(Note: I’ve written extensively about why Hillis wasn’t a fit in Denver, so get the joke)
If you like to see The Dude slack off 24/7, you can always find him on Facebook and Twitter. Or you can email him at: tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com. He assumes you are following It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter, but if you are not, that’s nihilistic.
