The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 5 - What Would LeBeau Do (WWLD)?

The Broncos are stacked.

Unfortunately, they are a little top heavy.

Like the guy at the gym who only works his arms, the Broncos have some gigantic biceps.

If they could only work on those chicken legs before they go puffing out their chest.

This week’s stats are going to show you what you already know.  The Broncos can pass, but they can’t run.  However, even the numbers are misleading (lying, you might say?).  Most of these passing yards are hollow because the Broncos have been playing from behind in all of their games. 

Either way, you’ve come looking for the stats, so you’re going to get them.  Strong.  Long.  And ready to get the friction on.

Broncos’ Offense - Through Week 5

Team Yards / Game Yards / Play Rushing Yards / Game Rushing Yards / Play Passing Yards / Game Passing Yards / Play Interception Rate Sacks / Pass Attempt
DEN 384.8 5.68 51.8 2.27 333 7.82 1.41% 5.63%
NFL 331 5.29 110.8 4.14 220.3 6.54 3.15% 6.55%
Differences 53.8 0.39 -59 -1.87 112.7 1.28 -1.74% -0.92%
 
Team First Downs / Game Punt Return Avg Kickoff Return Avg 3rd Down Pct 4th Down Pct Red Zone Pct Goal to Go% Avg Time of Possession
DEN 21 8.3 27.1 41.10% 37.50% 33.33% 75.00% 31:22:00
NFL 18.7 9 23.7 38.17% 42.96% 48.87% 69.48%  
Differences 2.3 -0.7 3.4 2.93% -5.46% -15.54% 5.52%  

Here are the things that stand out for me when looking at the summary of these numbers:

1) The Broncos are pass heavy and it shows.
2) Orton continues with a lack of interceptions
3) Pass protection is above average
4) The Broncos’ punt return game is again average.
5) The kick return game is still high on the fumes of Demaryius Thomas’ runs from last week.
6) 3rd downs are above the league average, but like passing yards, this is hollow because this stat has been inflated by playing from behind against deep zones.
7) The red zone has been a black hole for the Broncos this year.
8) Time of possession, surprisingly has been in the Broncos favor. 

 

Broncos’ Defense - Through 5 Weeks

Team Yards / Game Yards / Play Rushing Yards / Game Rushing Yards / Play Passing Yards / Game Passing Yards / Play Interception Rate Sacks / Pass Attempt
DEN 341.2 5.65 127.4 4.39 213.8 7.03 1.97% 3.29%
NFL 331 5.29 110.8 4.14 220.3 6.54 3.15% 6.55%
Differences 10.2 0.36 16.6 0.25 -6.5 0.49 -1.18% -3.26%
 
Team First Downs / Game Punt Return Avg Kickoff Return Avg 3rd Down Pct 4th Down Pct Red Zone Pct Goal to Go%  
DEN 18.8 13.8 27.5 43.33% 40.00% 61.54% 66.67%  
NFL 18.7 9 23.7 38.17% 42.96% 48.87% 69.48%  
Differences 0.1 4.8 3.8 5.16% -2.96% 12.67% -2.81%  

On the defensive side of the ball, here is what these numbers are telling me:

1) The Broncos’ defense isn’t getting any interceptions.
2) The Broncos’ defense isn’t getting to the quarterback.
3) The Broncos’ defense isn’t doing much right.
4) Return coverage for the Broncos continues to be a weakness.

Given the mounting injuries on defense, perhaps we’ll finally see what Wink Martindale is truly made of. 

This begs the question, what would LeBeau do (WWLD)?  That’s Dick LeBeau, defensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and greatest defensive mind the NFL has ever seen.

Well, I’ll tell you.  He would blitz.  Then he would blitz.  And when he was done blitzing, he’d slap you in the mouth and blitz again.  What he wouldn’t do is make excuses for injured personnel.

 

Turnovers

TAKEAWAYS         GIVEAWAYS      
Team Int Fum Total   Int Fum Total Net Diff
Denver 3 3 6   3 3 6 0
NFL Avg. 5.03 3.55 8.58   5.03 3.55 8.58 0

For a second straight week, the Broncos are holding their heads above water with respect to turnover differential.  This shouldn’t be good enough.

Dick LeBeau wouldn’t stand for it.  Neither should Wink Martindale.

 

A Non-Traditional Stat That Hits You Like a Groin Punch from Mike Tyson Before He Bit Holyfield’s Ear Off and Ate Your Children

According to Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats, the Broncos are averaging -0.36 Expected Points per play when running the ball. 

Yep, you read that right.  When the Broncos have run this season, it’s the equivalent to losing points. 

That’s a stat that will never lie. 

And If that doesn’t scare you, nothing else will. 

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

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