Our weekly picks have finally come to an end.
But has Peter King reached the end of his rope?
This little jaunt into weekly oblivion started as a statistical experiment (and a way for us to fill space on our blog). Could a random number generator (RNG) beat a group of so-called experts at picking football games? We threw in some picks from Doug and I just for fun. Then we added my cat Jesus Quintana (cat meaning cat, not bowling partner) into the mix for an added dose of humor.
Next week, I'll summarize some of the statistical lessons we've (probably) learned, but until then you'll suffer through another week of Quintana's upset picks and Peter King's smugness.
Next year, we plan on making this more user friendly and letting Fat Man's users participate. That means there will be a weekly and ongoing tally of how smart this community of Broncos fans really are. Consider it a sort of wisdom of the Fat Man crowd if you'd like. I have no doubt it will tie the room together.
Let's see how things went down last week.
"Experts" Through Week 16
| EXPERT | Wins | Total | Percentage | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Jaworski | 146 | 223 | 65.47% | 1 |
| Accuscore | 157 | 240 | 65.42% | 2 |
| Jason Cole | 152 | 240 | 63.33% | 3 |
| Mike Golic | 150 | 240 | 62.50% | 4 |
| ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em | 150 | 240 | 62.50% | 4 |
| Yahoo Users | 149 | 240 | 62.08% | 6 |
| Merril Hoge | 149 | 240 | 62.08% | 6 |
| TJ "The Dude" Johnson | 148 | 240 | 61.67% | 8 |
| Chris Mortensen | 148 | 240 | 61.67% | 8 |
| Peter King | 147 | 240 | 61.25% | 10 |
| Mark Schlereth | 147 | 240 | 61.25% | 10 |
| Les Carpenter | 145 | 240 | 60.42% | 12 |
| Doug Lee | 144 | 240 | 60.00% | 13 |
| Michael Silver | 143 | 240 | 59.58% | 14 |
| Pete Prisco | 142 | 240 | 59.17% | 15 |
| RNG | 139 | 240 | 57.92% | 16 |
| Eric Allen | 137 | 240 | 57.08% | 17 |
| Adam Schefter | 130 | 240 | 54.17% | 18 |
| Jesus Quintana | 124 | 240 | 51.67% | 19 |
| Raiders Fans | 7 | 240 | 2.92% | 20 |
My personal goals through this entire season were twofold. First, I wanted to beat the RNG. Second, I wanted to beat Peter King. So far, so good. The RNG has no real chance of catching me. Peter King, however, is sitting just one game back. So it's going to come down to the wire. Losing to Peter King is simply not acceptable. I don't mind getting crushed by a Monte Carlo Simulation (AccuScore) or even that complete geek Jason Cole, but losing to Peter King would really put my ego on ice.
Why? Well, if you must know, I'm jealous of his press credentials and of his ability to write a column each Monday that is as large as the New Testament.
Doug Lee is three games behind King but well ahead of the RNG. To be completely honest, I coaxed Doug into doing these weekly picks. He spends about 1 minute on them a week.
What can I say about Quintana that hasn't been said? Not much. As I write this, he's curled up in a ball with his Tim Tebow jersey on, but dreaming of the 2nd-overall draft pick in 2011.
Weekly Picks
| WEEK 17 | Random Number Generator | Jesus Quintana | TJ "The Dude" Johnson | Doug Lee | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VISTOR | HOME | Pick | Pick | Team | Team |
| CAR | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL |
| PIT | CLE | PIT | CLE | PIT | PIT |
| MIN | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET |
| OAK | KC | OAK | OAK | KC | KC |
| MIA | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE |
| TB | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO |
| BUF | NYJ | NYJ | BUF | BUF | NYJ |
| CIN | BAL | BAL | CIN | BAL | BAL |
| SD | DEN | DEN | DEN | DEN | SD |
| CHI | GB | CHI | GB | GB | GB |
| TEN | IND | TEN | IND | IND | IND |
| DAL | PHI | PHI | PHI | DAL | PHI |
| ARI | SF | SF | ARI | SF | ARI |
| NYG | WAS | NYG | WAS | NYG | NYG |
| JAX | HOU | HOU | JAX | HOU | HOU |
| STL | SEA | SEA | SEA | STL | STL |
Quintana's Upset Specials
(Note: Quintana really is a feline, it's no lie. Really. Do not follow his picks if you value yours.)
1) Cleveland over Pittsburgh. Quintana loves Peyton Hillis. Did you think he was going to stop in the last week of the season?
2) Buffalo over the New York Jets. Quintana stays with his weekly Bills pick. He tells me Bruce Smith is going to go off this week.
3) Cincinnati over Baltimore. The Bengals always give the Ravens trouble. Okay, Quintana doesn't actually know that to be a fact. But it sounds like something that might be factual.
4) Washington over the New York Giants. Rex Grossman throws for 789 yards and 7 touchdowns to ensure Mike Shanahan was correct in benching McNabb.
Peter King Actually Wrote This:
"...sometimes a team just responds to a QB's leadership and approach, even if he's not the best player on the team at his position. Tim Tebow might not be. But if he wins this game, it's going to be very hard for some new coach to take the Denver job in 2011 and not give Tebow the starting QB job."
Okay, this wasn't dumb at all. I completely agree with PK. I'd make the same statement even if the Broncos lose and Tebow plays well.
