The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 2

In God we trust. All others must bring data.

                                 —Robert W. Hayden 

After the crazy Indy and Miami game, I'm out a little faster with the stats for Week 2.  Thanks to everyone for reading these. For those that want to review the rational for why I keep track of these four stats, check out the Introduction (not perfect, but useful).   In short, there is a very high correlation between winning the battle of turnovers, time of possession, third down efficiency, and field possession.  By far, the most important battle is turnovers, followed by field position.

Before we get to the number, a few quick notes on the games.  First, regarding the Denver game, they won all four categories, and you saw the result.  If they continue down this path, they will win a lot of games this year.  The strangest game was actually the last one played, Indianapolis vs. Miami, in which Miami dominated time of possession by a 3 to 1 margin but still lost.  It's important to note that games like this are extremely rare, so don't let it fool you.  Lastly, it wouldn't be one of my posts without a shot at the Raiders.  Their game was proof that even the Hutt can win when you give him better field position and no turnovers.

Quick Summary:

  • The team that won the turnover battle won 15 of the 16 games played (94%)
  • The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 16 games played (56%)
  • The team that won the 3rd down battle won 6 of the 16 games played (38%)..don't expect this to remain each week.
  • The team that won the field position battle won 13 of the 16 games played (81%).
  • There were 2 games this week in which a team won all 4 categories.  Both teams also won the game (Denver was one of the two).
  • The winning teams this week averaged .81 turnovers, 29:36 in time of possession, 39% on 3rd down efficiency, and their average field position was the 31.97 yard line.
  • Top Five in Turnovers: 7 teams tied with zero turnovers
  • Top five in Time of Possession: 1.Miami  2.KC  3.Was  4. NYG  5. SF
  • Top five in 3rd Down Efficiency: 1.Mia  2.Car  3.Cin  4.Dal  5. DEN!
  • Top five in Field Position: 1.Min  2.Bal  3.Cin  4.NO  5.TB/Atl 
  • Of the 32 games that have been played in the NFL this season, 85% of the games were won by the team with less turnovers, 66% with a better time of possession, 59% with a better 3rd down percentage, and finally, 78% with better field position.

I've included a very brief comment on each game, since I did not have to write a long introduction for this week, although I wouldn't exactly call them insightful (I mean I'm not John Clayton or Woody Paige, for god's sake)  Look forward to your comments.

Score           TOs      TOP      Third Down      Field Pos        Comment  

CAR 20        2           28:31    58.33%             21.70            Atl takes advantage of better field position.         

ATL 28         2           31:04    50.00%             33.22

 

MIN 27         1          27:05     27.27%             44.00            Min wins field position and turnovers.  Done. 

DET 13        3          30:20     38.46%             25.73

 

CIN 31         2          33:53     14%                  37.18            Cin had a short field all day and kept the ball away from GB.

GB 24          1          25:22     41.67%             27.25

 

ARZ 31        2          29:08     22.22%             32.27             Turnovers and Field Position correlate highest to winning.        

JAX 17        3          28:27     37.50%             28.42

 

OAK 13       0          20:35     23.08%             30.45              Even the Hutt can win with a TO and Field Pos. Advantage.

KC 10         2          38:53     33.33%             23.91

 

NE 9          1           31:03     33.33%             28.64              Close game in most categories except field position.

NYJ 16      1           27:55     27.27%             32.50

 

NO 48       1           30:26      46.15%             37.17              Give Brees Field Position and you are dead.       

PHI 22      4           29:34      43.75%             23.62

 

HOU 34    0           34:03       31.25%            32.46               Surprised it was so close actually looking at these numbers.

TEN 31     2           25:57      45.45%             23.85

 

STL 7      1            25:07      50.00%             24.13               Was bested the Rams in 3 of the 4.

WAS 9    0            34:53      46.67%             28.88

 

SEA 10   1            25:29       28.57%            26.08                Singletary controls clock and takes care of the football.

SF 23     0            34:31       33.33%            21.83

 

TB 20     2            30:27       25.00%             33.23               Pretty even game except on 3rd downs.                

BUF 33   2            29:33       33.33%             31.50

 

PIT 14    2            30:26       50.00%             23.56               Cutler wins when he doesn't turn it over (when!)

CHI 17   0            29:34       50.00%             27.00

 

CLE 6    3            27:17       21.43%             27.42                Win all 4, win the game.

DEN 27  1            32:43       53.33%             28.91

 

BAL 31  1            28:41       36.36%             38.25                Turnovers & Field Position.

SD 26    2            31:19       43.75%             27.73

 

NYG33  0            34:49       40.00%             32.58                 Giants up to their old clock management tricks.

DAL31  4            25:11       54.55%              24.17

 

IND27  0            14:53        42.86%             23.38                 Can someone explain this to me???????

MIA23  1            45:07        71.43%             23.75

 

If Orton takes care of the ball again in Week 3, and the Broncos can force the Hutt to drive long fields, they should be in good shape.

Thanks again.   As always if someone wants the week to week spread of these number,just let me know.  

Go Broncos!!!

Originally posted at MHR

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

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