STDL: QB stats Week 14

So, it turns out that Tim Tebow's 15 pass attempts on Sunday weren't enough for his 2011 stats to qualify for rate stats leaderboards, but that won't stop us from updating the numbers. Last week, Tim ranked 19th in ANY/A and 36th in NY/A out of 39 QBs with 100 or more pass attempts. Incidentally, Tyler Palko became the 40th passer to cross that threshold with his 30 attempts against Denver's upcoming opponent.

As one might expect, Tim's sparkling second-half performance in Minnesota served to move him significantly higher in both categories. This speaks to two factors: one, we're still looking at a relatively small sample size which can be easily influenced by a single game; two, his results Sunday were that much better than his prior ones.

First, the math:

We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:

[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]

If you're wondering, the values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)] 

The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:

  1. We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
  2. We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events. As for how this will affect one player over another, it really won't do so very much - perhaps only Matt Moore this season, because he's put it on the ground a whopping 3.4% of the time he's touched it.

I've also added a column of Negative Play % which shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.

In the following charts, I've included everyone who's attempted at least 100 passes so far this year, which is 40 quarterbacks in total. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future:

2011 QB Data through Week 13, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch

  Player Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 490 3,874 39 7.55% 7.91 8.82
2 Tom Brady 504 3,881 30 6.94% 7.70 7.72
3 Drew Brees 532 3,957 31 6.02% 7.44 7.67
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Eli Manning 489 3,557 24 8.18% 7.27 6.67
6 Tony Romo 464 3,206 22 8.41% 6.91 6.61
7 Cam Newton 542 3,638 26 8.67% 6.71 6.19
8 Matthew Stafford 528 3,407 27 7.95% 6.45 6.02
9 Ben Roethlisberger 472 3,099 19 10.59% 6.57 5.97
10 Chad Henne 138 913 5 11.59% 6.62 5.78
11 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
12 Matt Ryan 495 3,084 21 7.68% 6.23 5.71
13 Alex Smith 393 2,333 16 11.45% 5.94 5.64
14 Michael Vick 380 2,654 11 8.95% 6.98 5.52
15 Tim Tebow 258 1,408 13 9.69% 5.46 5.48
16 Philip Rivers 498 3,370 20 10.64% 6.77 5.47
17 Carson Palmer 202 1,397 9 11.88% 6.92 5.46
18 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
19 Matt Hasselbeck 424 2,586 15 6.84% 6.10 5.42
20 Andy Dalton 431 2,601 18 7.89% 6.03 5.37
21 Ryan Fitzpatrick 471 2,857 20 7.64% 6.07 5.06
22 Mark Sanchez 458 2,607 22 9.39% 5.69 5.04
23 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 10.75% 5.23 4.90
24 Christian Ponder 256 1,560 9 12.89% 6.09 4.84
25 Joe Flacco 490 2,798 14 8.37% 5.71 4.76
26 Josh Freeman 467 2,769 14 8.14% 5.93 4.69
27 Matt Moore 293 1,693 11 12.97% 5.78 4.69
28 Kevin Kolb 298 1,808 9 14.77% 6.07 4.64
29 Tarvaris Jackson 384 2,126 11 12.24% 5.54 4.34
30 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
31 Vince Young 137 925 4 10.95% 6.75 4.12
32 Colt McCoy 513 2,559 14 9.36% 4.99 4.06
33 Rex Grossman 352 2,038 11 10.80% 5.79 4.00
34 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
35 John Beck 158 817 4 13.92% 5.17 3.87
36 Kyle Orton 170 947 8 11.76% 5.57 3.84
37 Sam Bradford 377 1,776 6 12.73% 4.71 3.50
38 John Skelton 139 742 4 14.39% 5.34 3.14
39 Blaine Gabbert 366 1,458 8 12.57% 3.98 2.70
40 Tyler Palko 112 560 1 11.61% 5.00 2.46
  Averages       9.81% 6.38 5.56

Tebow has jumped from 19th out of 39 passers to 15th out of 40 of them - quite a signicant upward move.

Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)] 

This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:

2011 QB Data through Week 13, sorted by Net Yards per Touch

  Player Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 490 3,874 39 7.55% 7.91 8.82
2 Tom Brady 504 3,881 30 6.94% 7.70 7.72
3 Drew Brees 532 3,957 31 6.02% 7.44 7.67
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Eli Manning 489 3,557 24 8.18% 7.27 6.67
6 Michael Vick 380 2,654 11 8.95% 6.98 5.52
7 Carson Palmer 202 1,397 9 11.88% 6.92 5.46
8 Tony Romo 464 3,206 22 8.41% 6.91 6.61
9 Philip Rivers 498 3,370 20 10.64% 6.77 5.47
10 Vince Young 137 925 4 10.95% 6.75 4.12
11 Cam Newton 542 3,638 26 8.67% 6.71 6.19
12 Chad Henne 138 913 5 11.59% 6.62 5.78
13 Ben Roethlisberger 472 3,099 19 10.59% 6.57 5.97
14 Matthew Stafford 528 3,407 27 7.95% 6.45 6.02
15 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
16 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
17 Matt Ryan 495 3,084 21 7.68% 6.23 5.71
18 Matt Hasselbeck 424 2,586 15 6.84% 6.10 5.42
19 Christian Ponder 256 1,560 9 12.89% 6.09 4.84
20 Kevin Kolb 298 1,808 9 14.77% 6.07 4.64
21 Ryan Fitzpatrick 471 2,857 20 7.64% 6.07 5.06
22 Andy Dalton 431 2,601 18 7.89% 6.03 5.37
23 Alex Smith 393 2,333 16 11.45% 5.94 5.64
24 Josh Freeman 467 2,769 14 8.14% 5.93 4.69
25 Rex Grossman 352 2,038 11 10.80% 5.79 4.00
26 Matt Moore 293 1,693 11 12.97% 5.78 4.69
27 Joe Flacco 490 2,798 14 8.37% 5.71 4.76
28 Mark Sanchez 458 2,607 22 9.39% 5.69 5.04
29 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
30 Kyle Orton 170 947 8 11.76% 5.57 3.84
31 Tarvaris Jackson 384 2,126 11 12.24% 5.54 4.34
32 Tim Tebow 258 1,408 13 9.69% 5.46 5.48
33 John Skelton 139 742 4 14.39% 5.34 3.14
34 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
35 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 10.75% 5.23 4.90
36 John Beck 158 817 4 13.92% 5.17 3.87
37 Tyler Palko 112 560 1 11.61% 5.00 2.46
38 Colt McCoy 513 2,559 14 9.36% 4.99 4.06
39 Sam Bradford 377 1,776 6 12.73% 4.71 3.50
40 Blaine Gabbert 366 1,458 8 12.57% 3.98 2.70
  Averages       9.81% 6.38 5.56

Similarly, Tim's Week 13 performance also moved him up in terms of NY/T (the more retrodictive predictive metric) - from 36th out of 39 up to 32nd out of 40.

We'll be back later in the week with the traditional STDL examining how the Broncos and Bears match up.

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

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