So, it turns out that Tim Tebow's 15 pass attempts on Sunday weren't enough for his 2011 stats to qualify for rate stats leaderboards, but that won't stop us from updating the numbers. Last week, Tim ranked 19th in ANY/A and 36th in NY/A out of 39 QBs with 100 or more pass attempts. Incidentally, Tyler Palko became the 40th passer to cross that threshold with his 30 attempts against Denver's upcoming opponent.
As one might expect, Tim's sparkling second-half performance in Minnesota served to move him significantly higher in both categories. This speaks to two factors: one, we're still looking at a relatively small sample size which can be easily influenced by a single game; two, his results Sunday were that much better than his prior ones.
First, the math:
We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:
[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]
If you're wondering, the values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:
- We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
- We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events. As for how this will affect one player over another, it really won't do so very much - perhaps only Matt Moore this season, because he's put it on the ground a whopping 3.4% of the time he's touched it.
I've also added a column of Negative Play % which shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.
In the following charts, I've included everyone who's attempted at least 100 passes so far this year, which is 40 quarterbacks in total. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future:
2011 QB Data through Week 13, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch
| Player | Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 490 | 3,874 | 39 | 7.55% | 7.91 | 8.82 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | 504 | 3,881 | 30 | 6.94% | 7.70 | 7.72 |
| 3 | Drew Brees | 532 | 3,957 | 31 | 6.02% | 7.44 | 7.67 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Eli Manning | 489 | 3,557 | 24 | 8.18% | 7.27 | 6.67 |
| 6 | Tony Romo | 464 | 3,206 | 22 | 8.41% | 6.91 | 6.61 |
| 7 | Cam Newton | 542 | 3,638 | 26 | 8.67% | 6.71 | 6.19 |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford | 528 | 3,407 | 27 | 7.95% | 6.45 | 6.02 |
| 9 | Ben Roethlisberger | 472 | 3,099 | 19 | 10.59% | 6.57 | 5.97 |
| 10 | Chad Henne | 138 | 913 | 5 | 11.59% | 6.62 | 5.78 |
| 11 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 12 | Matt Ryan | 495 | 3,084 | 21 | 7.68% | 6.23 | 5.71 |
| 13 | Alex Smith | 393 | 2,333 | 16 | 11.45% | 5.94 | 5.64 |
| 14 | Michael Vick | 380 | 2,654 | 11 | 8.95% | 6.98 | 5.52 |
| 15 | Tim Tebow | 258 | 1,408 | 13 | 9.69% | 5.46 | 5.48 |
| 16 | Philip Rivers | 498 | 3,370 | 20 | 10.64% | 6.77 | 5.47 |
| 17 | Carson Palmer | 202 | 1,397 | 9 | 11.88% | 6.92 | 5.46 |
| 18 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 19 | Matt Hasselbeck | 424 | 2,586 | 15 | 6.84% | 6.10 | 5.42 |
| 20 | Andy Dalton | 431 | 2,601 | 18 | 7.89% | 6.03 | 5.37 |
| 21 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 471 | 2,857 | 20 | 7.64% | 6.07 | 5.06 |
| 22 | Mark Sanchez | 458 | 2,607 | 22 | 9.39% | 5.69 | 5.04 |
| 23 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 10.75% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 24 | Christian Ponder | 256 | 1,560 | 9 | 12.89% | 6.09 | 4.84 |
| 25 | Joe Flacco | 490 | 2,798 | 14 | 8.37% | 5.71 | 4.76 |
| 26 | Josh Freeman | 467 | 2,769 | 14 | 8.14% | 5.93 | 4.69 |
| 27 | Matt Moore | 293 | 1,693 | 11 | 12.97% | 5.78 | 4.69 |
| 28 | Kevin Kolb | 298 | 1,808 | 9 | 14.77% | 6.07 | 4.64 |
| 29 | Tarvaris Jackson | 384 | 2,126 | 11 | 12.24% | 5.54 | 4.34 |
| 30 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 31 | Vince Young | 137 | 925 | 4 | 10.95% | 6.75 | 4.12 |
| 32 | Colt McCoy | 513 | 2,559 | 14 | 9.36% | 4.99 | 4.06 |
| 33 | Rex Grossman | 352 | 2,038 | 11 | 10.80% | 5.79 | 4.00 |
| 34 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 35 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 13.92% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 36 | Kyle Orton | 170 | 947 | 8 | 11.76% | 5.57 | 3.84 |
| 37 | Sam Bradford | 377 | 1,776 | 6 | 12.73% | 4.71 | 3.50 |
| 38 | John Skelton | 139 | 742 | 4 | 14.39% | 5.34 | 3.14 |
| 39 | Blaine Gabbert | 366 | 1,458 | 8 | 12.57% | 3.98 | 2.70 |
| 40 | Tyler Palko | 112 | 560 | 1 | 11.61% | 5.00 | 2.46 |
| Averages | 9.81% | 6.38 | 5.56 |
Tebow has jumped from 19th out of 39 passers to 15th out of 40 of them - quite a signicant upward move.
Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:
2011 QB Data through Week 13, sorted by Net Yards per Touch
| Player | Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 490 | 3,874 | 39 | 7.55% | 7.91 | 8.82 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | 504 | 3,881 | 30 | 6.94% | 7.70 | 7.72 |
| 3 | Drew Brees | 532 | 3,957 | 31 | 6.02% | 7.44 | 7.67 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Eli Manning | 489 | 3,557 | 24 | 8.18% | 7.27 | 6.67 |
| 6 | Michael Vick | 380 | 2,654 | 11 | 8.95% | 6.98 | 5.52 |
| 7 | Carson Palmer | 202 | 1,397 | 9 | 11.88% | 6.92 | 5.46 |
| 8 | Tony Romo | 464 | 3,206 | 22 | 8.41% | 6.91 | 6.61 |
| 9 | Philip Rivers | 498 | 3,370 | 20 | 10.64% | 6.77 | 5.47 |
| 10 | Vince Young | 137 | 925 | 4 | 10.95% | 6.75 | 4.12 |
| 11 | Cam Newton | 542 | 3,638 | 26 | 8.67% | 6.71 | 6.19 |
| 12 | Chad Henne | 138 | 913 | 5 | 11.59% | 6.62 | 5.78 |
| 13 | Ben Roethlisberger | 472 | 3,099 | 19 | 10.59% | 6.57 | 5.97 |
| 14 | Matthew Stafford | 528 | 3,407 | 27 | 7.95% | 6.45 | 6.02 |
| 15 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 16 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 17 | Matt Ryan | 495 | 3,084 | 21 | 7.68% | 6.23 | 5.71 |
| 18 | Matt Hasselbeck | 424 | 2,586 | 15 | 6.84% | 6.10 | 5.42 |
| 19 | Christian Ponder | 256 | 1,560 | 9 | 12.89% | 6.09 | 4.84 |
| 20 | Kevin Kolb | 298 | 1,808 | 9 | 14.77% | 6.07 | 4.64 |
| 21 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 471 | 2,857 | 20 | 7.64% | 6.07 | 5.06 |
| 22 | Andy Dalton | 431 | 2,601 | 18 | 7.89% | 6.03 | 5.37 |
| 23 | Alex Smith | 393 | 2,333 | 16 | 11.45% | 5.94 | 5.64 |
| 24 | Josh Freeman | 467 | 2,769 | 14 | 8.14% | 5.93 | 4.69 |
| 25 | Rex Grossman | 352 | 2,038 | 11 | 10.80% | 5.79 | 4.00 |
| 26 | Matt Moore | 293 | 1,693 | 11 | 12.97% | 5.78 | 4.69 |
| 27 | Joe Flacco | 490 | 2,798 | 14 | 8.37% | 5.71 | 4.76 |
| 28 | Mark Sanchez | 458 | 2,607 | 22 | 9.39% | 5.69 | 5.04 |
| 29 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 30 | Kyle Orton | 170 | 947 | 8 | 11.76% | 5.57 | 3.84 |
| 31 | Tarvaris Jackson | 384 | 2,126 | 11 | 12.24% | 5.54 | 4.34 |
| 32 | Tim Tebow | 258 | 1,408 | 13 | 9.69% | 5.46 | 5.48 |
| 33 | John Skelton | 139 | 742 | 4 | 14.39% | 5.34 | 3.14 |
| 34 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 35 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 10.75% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 36 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 13.92% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 37 | Tyler Palko | 112 | 560 | 1 | 11.61% | 5.00 | 2.46 |
| 38 | Colt McCoy | 513 | 2,559 | 14 | 9.36% | 4.99 | 4.06 |
| 39 | Sam Bradford | 377 | 1,776 | 6 | 12.73% | 4.71 | 3.50 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 366 | 1,458 | 8 | 12.57% | 3.98 | 2.70 |
| Averages | 9.81% | 6.38 | 5.56 |
Similarly, Tim's Week 13 performance also moved him up in terms of NY/T (the more retrodictive predictive metric) - from 36th out of 39 up to 32nd out of 40.
We'll be back later in the week with the traditional STDL examining how the Broncos and Bears match up.
