STDL: QB stats through 17 weeks

By now you're all really tired of reading/hearing how bad Tim Tebow was on Sunday and has been for the past few weeks. So, let's just get to the numbers. They speak for themselves.

Last week, Tim ranked 25th in ANY/T and was tied for 32nd in NY/T with Matt Cassel - out of the top 40 quarterbacks in terms of pass attempts. What did his 30-touch, 66-yard, two turnover performance against the Chiefs do to his rankings?

As always, the math:

We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:

[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]

The values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)] 

The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:

  1. We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
  2. We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events.

The Negative Play % column shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.

We've been constraining the list to the top 40 passers in terms of pass attempts. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future (because pushing the ball down the field is a more easily repeatable skill, while touchdowns, fumbles and interceptions are more random):

2011 QB Data through Week 17, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch

    Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 598 4,681 48 7.69% 7.83 8.75
2 Drew Brees 702 5,404 47 5.56% 7.70 8.09
3 Tom Brady 686 5,171 42 7.29% 7.54 7.67
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Tony Romo 580 4,003 32 9.14% 6.90 6.81
6 Eli Manning 652 4,749 30 7.98% 7.28 6.67
7 Matthew Stafford 721 4,859 41 7.91% 6.74 6.64
8 Matt Ryan 629 4,088 31 6.84% 6.50 6.35
9 Cam Newton 679 4,524 35 8.39% 6.66 6.31
10 Michael Vick 522 3,766 19 9.00% 7.21 6.07
11 Philip Rivers 638 4,462 28 9.25% 6.99 5.97
12 Carson Palmer 361 2,654 14 9.70% 7.35 5.94
13 Ben Roethlisberger 584 3,878 21 10.62% 6.64 5.80
14 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
15T Matt Hasselbeck 557 3,470 18 6.64% 6.23 5.49
15T Alex Smith 542 3,066 19 10.33% 5.66 5.49
17 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
18 Andy Dalton 577 3,390 21 7.11% 5.88 5.35
19 Kyle Orton 273 1,717 9 8.42% 6.29 4.95
20 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 10.75% 5.23 4.90
21 Joe Flacco 613 3,487 21 8.81% 5.69 4.86
22 Ryan Fitzpatrick 647 3,899 24 8.04% 6.03 4.79
23 Mark Sanchez 619 3,334 32 10.82% 5.39 4.55
24 Kevin Kolb 300 1,801 9 15.33% 6.00 4.47
25 Josh Freeman 635 3,666 20 9.45% 5.77 4.35
26T Tarvaris Jackson 532 2,905 15 12.03% 5.46 4.33
26T Matt Moore 415 2,333 18 14.22% 5.62 4.33
28T Tim Tebow 426 2,164 18 12.21% 5.08 4.22
28T Rex Grossman 503 2,961 17 10.54% 5.89 4.22
30 T.J. Yates 163 932 3 14.11% 5.72 4.18
31 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
32 John Skelton 326 1,879 11 12.58% 5.76 4.08
33T Christian Ponder 349 1,908 13 14.04% 5.47 3.93
33T Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
35 Colt McCoy 557 2,767 14 9.69% 4.97 3.89
36 John Beck 158 817 4 14.56% 5.17 3.87
37 Dan Orlovsky 213 1,122 6 11.74% 5.27 3.84
38 Sam Bradford 411 1,942 6 12.65% 4.73 3.51
39 Tyler Palko 150 728 2 12.67% 4.85 2.79
40 Blaine Gabbert 501 2,019 12 12.97% 4.03 2.54
  Averages       9.88% 6.38 5.58

Tebow's ANY/T took a pretty significant hit, falling from 4.57 to 4.22 and dropping him into a tie for 28th along with Rex Grossman. Few yards, no touchdowns and two turnovers can have that effect.

Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]

This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:

2011 QB Data through Week 17, sorted by Net Yards per Touch

    Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 598 4,681 48 7.69% 7.83 8.75
2 Drew Brees 702 5,404 47 5.56% 7.70 8.09
3 Tom Brady 686 5,171 42 7.29% 7.54 7.67
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Carson Palmer 361 2,654 14 9.70% 7.35 5.94
6 Eli Manning 652 4,749 30 7.98% 7.28 6.67
7 Michael Vick 522 3,766 19 9.00% 7.21 6.07
8 Philip Rivers 638 4,462 28 9.25% 6.99 5.97
9 Tony Romo 580 4,003 32 9.14% 6.90 6.81
10 Matthew Stafford 721 4,859 41 7.91% 6.74 6.64
11 Cam Newton 679 4,524 35 8.39% 6.66 6.31
12 Ben Roethlisberger 584 3,878 21 10.62% 6.64 5.80
13 Matt Ryan 629 4,088 31 6.84% 6.50 6.35
14 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
15 Kyle Orton 273 1,717 9 8.42% 6.29 4.95
16 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
17 Matt Hasselbeck 557 3,470 18 6.64% 6.23 5.49
18 Ryan Fitzpatrick 647 3,899 24 8.04% 6.03 4.79
19 Kevin Kolb 300 1,801 9 15.33% 6.00 4.47
20 Rex Grossman 503 2,961 17 10.54% 5.89 4.22
21 Andy Dalton 577 3,390 21 7.11% 5.88 5.35
22 Josh Freeman 635 3,666 20 9.45% 5.77 4.35
23 John Skelton 326 1,879 11 12.58% 5.76 4.08
24 T.J. Yates 163 932 3 14.11% 5.72 4.18
25 Joe Flacco 613 3,487 21 8.81% 5.69 4.86
26 Alex Smith 542 3,066 19 10.33% 5.66 5.49
27 Matt Moore 415 2,333 18 14.22% 5.62 4.33
28 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
29 Christian Ponder 349 1,908 13 14.04% 5.47 3.93
30 Tarvaris Jackson 532 2,905 15 12.03% 5.46 4.33
31 Mark Sanchez 619 3,334 32 10.82% 5.39 4.55
32 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
33 Dan Orlovsky 213 1,122 6 11.74% 5.27 3.84
34 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 10.75% 5.23 4.90
35 John Beck 158 817 4 14.56% 5.17 3.87
36 Tim Tebow 426 2,164 18 12.21% 5.08 4.22
37 Colt McCoy 557 2,767 14 9.69% 4.97 3.89
38 Tyler Palko 150 728 2 12.67% 4.85 2.79
39 Sam Bradford 411 1,942 6 12.65% 4.73 3.51
40 Blaine Gabbert 501 2,019 12 12.97% 4.03 2.54
  Averages       9.88% 6.38 5.58

Tim's NY/T has dropped from 5.32 to 5.08, and he's gone from being ranked 32nd to 36th. As for his rate of negative plays, 12.21% puts Tebow at 10th-worst of out these 40 quarterbacks.

We'll update these numbers next week with the playoff games included, because the more data we have, the truer the picture we'll have.

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

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