By now you're all really tired of reading/hearing how bad Tim Tebow was on Sunday and has been for the past few weeks. So, let's just get to the numbers. They speak for themselves.
Last week, Tim ranked 25th in ANY/T and was tied for 32nd in NY/T with Matt Cassel - out of the top 40 quarterbacks in terms of pass attempts. What did his 30-touch, 66-yard, two turnover performance against the Chiefs do to his rankings?
As always, the math:
We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:
[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]
The values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:
- We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
- We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events.
The Negative Play % column shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.
We've been constraining the list to the top 40 passers in terms of pass attempts. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future (because pushing the ball down the field is a more easily repeatable skill, while touchdowns, fumbles and interceptions are more random):
2011 QB Data through Week 17, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch
| Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 598 | 4,681 | 48 | 7.69% | 7.83 | 8.75 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 702 | 5,404 | 47 | 5.56% | 7.70 | 8.09 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 686 | 5,171 | 42 | 7.29% | 7.54 | 7.67 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Tony Romo | 580 | 4,003 | 32 | 9.14% | 6.90 | 6.81 |
| 6 | Eli Manning | 652 | 4,749 | 30 | 7.98% | 7.28 | 6.67 |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | 721 | 4,859 | 41 | 7.91% | 6.74 | 6.64 |
| 8 | Matt Ryan | 629 | 4,088 | 31 | 6.84% | 6.50 | 6.35 |
| 9 | Cam Newton | 679 | 4,524 | 35 | 8.39% | 6.66 | 6.31 |
| 10 | Michael Vick | 522 | 3,766 | 19 | 9.00% | 7.21 | 6.07 |
| 11 | Philip Rivers | 638 | 4,462 | 28 | 9.25% | 6.99 | 5.97 |
| 12 | Carson Palmer | 361 | 2,654 | 14 | 9.70% | 7.35 | 5.94 |
| 13 | Ben Roethlisberger | 584 | 3,878 | 21 | 10.62% | 6.64 | 5.80 |
| 14 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 15T | Matt Hasselbeck | 557 | 3,470 | 18 | 6.64% | 6.23 | 5.49 |
| 15T | Alex Smith | 542 | 3,066 | 19 | 10.33% | 5.66 | 5.49 |
| 17 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 18 | Andy Dalton | 577 | 3,390 | 21 | 7.11% | 5.88 | 5.35 |
| 19 | Kyle Orton | 273 | 1,717 | 9 | 8.42% | 6.29 | 4.95 |
| 20 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 10.75% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 21 | Joe Flacco | 613 | 3,487 | 21 | 8.81% | 5.69 | 4.86 |
| 22 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 647 | 3,899 | 24 | 8.04% | 6.03 | 4.79 |
| 23 | Mark Sanchez | 619 | 3,334 | 32 | 10.82% | 5.39 | 4.55 |
| 24 | Kevin Kolb | 300 | 1,801 | 9 | 15.33% | 6.00 | 4.47 |
| 25 | Josh Freeman | 635 | 3,666 | 20 | 9.45% | 5.77 | 4.35 |
| 26T | Tarvaris Jackson | 532 | 2,905 | 15 | 12.03% | 5.46 | 4.33 |
| 26T | Matt Moore | 415 | 2,333 | 18 | 14.22% | 5.62 | 4.33 |
| 28T | Tim Tebow | 426 | 2,164 | 18 | 12.21% | 5.08 | 4.22 |
| 28T | Rex Grossman | 503 | 2,961 | 17 | 10.54% | 5.89 | 4.22 |
| 30 | T.J. Yates | 163 | 932 | 3 | 14.11% | 5.72 | 4.18 |
| 31 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 32 | John Skelton | 326 | 1,879 | 11 | 12.58% | 5.76 | 4.08 |
| 33T | Christian Ponder | 349 | 1,908 | 13 | 14.04% | 5.47 | 3.93 |
| 33T | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 35 | Colt McCoy | 557 | 2,767 | 14 | 9.69% | 4.97 | 3.89 |
| 36 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 14.56% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 37 | Dan Orlovsky | 213 | 1,122 | 6 | 11.74% | 5.27 | 3.84 |
| 38 | Sam Bradford | 411 | 1,942 | 6 | 12.65% | 4.73 | 3.51 |
| 39 | Tyler Palko | 150 | 728 | 2 | 12.67% | 4.85 | 2.79 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 501 | 2,019 | 12 | 12.97% | 4.03 | 2.54 |
| Averages | 9.88% | 6.38 | 5.58 |
Tebow's ANY/T took a pretty significant hit, falling from 4.57 to 4.22 and dropping him into a tie for 28th along with Rex Grossman. Few yards, no touchdowns and two turnovers can have that effect.
Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:
2011 QB Data through Week 17, sorted by Net Yards per Touch
| Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 598 | 4,681 | 48 | 7.69% | 7.83 | 8.75 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 702 | 5,404 | 47 | 5.56% | 7.70 | 8.09 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 686 | 5,171 | 42 | 7.29% | 7.54 | 7.67 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Carson Palmer | 361 | 2,654 | 14 | 9.70% | 7.35 | 5.94 |
| 6 | Eli Manning | 652 | 4,749 | 30 | 7.98% | 7.28 | 6.67 |
| 7 | Michael Vick | 522 | 3,766 | 19 | 9.00% | 7.21 | 6.07 |
| 8 | Philip Rivers | 638 | 4,462 | 28 | 9.25% | 6.99 | 5.97 |
| 9 | Tony Romo | 580 | 4,003 | 32 | 9.14% | 6.90 | 6.81 |
| 10 | Matthew Stafford | 721 | 4,859 | 41 | 7.91% | 6.74 | 6.64 |
| 11 | Cam Newton | 679 | 4,524 | 35 | 8.39% | 6.66 | 6.31 |
| 12 | Ben Roethlisberger | 584 | 3,878 | 21 | 10.62% | 6.64 | 5.80 |
| 13 | Matt Ryan | 629 | 4,088 | 31 | 6.84% | 6.50 | 6.35 |
| 14 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 15 | Kyle Orton | 273 | 1,717 | 9 | 8.42% | 6.29 | 4.95 |
| 16 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 17 | Matt Hasselbeck | 557 | 3,470 | 18 | 6.64% | 6.23 | 5.49 |
| 18 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 647 | 3,899 | 24 | 8.04% | 6.03 | 4.79 |
| 19 | Kevin Kolb | 300 | 1,801 | 9 | 15.33% | 6.00 | 4.47 |
| 20 | Rex Grossman | 503 | 2,961 | 17 | 10.54% | 5.89 | 4.22 |
| 21 | Andy Dalton | 577 | 3,390 | 21 | 7.11% | 5.88 | 5.35 |
| 22 | Josh Freeman | 635 | 3,666 | 20 | 9.45% | 5.77 | 4.35 |
| 23 | John Skelton | 326 | 1,879 | 11 | 12.58% | 5.76 | 4.08 |
| 24 | T.J. Yates | 163 | 932 | 3 | 14.11% | 5.72 | 4.18 |
| 25 | Joe Flacco | 613 | 3,487 | 21 | 8.81% | 5.69 | 4.86 |
| 26 | Alex Smith | 542 | 3,066 | 19 | 10.33% | 5.66 | 5.49 |
| 27 | Matt Moore | 415 | 2,333 | 18 | 14.22% | 5.62 | 4.33 |
| 28 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 29 | Christian Ponder | 349 | 1,908 | 13 | 14.04% | 5.47 | 3.93 |
| 30 | Tarvaris Jackson | 532 | 2,905 | 15 | 12.03% | 5.46 | 4.33 |
| 31 | Mark Sanchez | 619 | 3,334 | 32 | 10.82% | 5.39 | 4.55 |
| 32 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 33 | Dan Orlovsky | 213 | 1,122 | 6 | 11.74% | 5.27 | 3.84 |
| 34 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 10.75% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 35 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 14.56% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 36 | Tim Tebow | 426 | 2,164 | 18 | 12.21% | 5.08 | 4.22 |
| 37 | Colt McCoy | 557 | 2,767 | 14 | 9.69% | 4.97 | 3.89 |
| 38 | Tyler Palko | 150 | 728 | 2 | 12.67% | 4.85 | 2.79 |
| 39 | Sam Bradford | 411 | 1,942 | 6 | 12.65% | 4.73 | 3.51 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 501 | 2,019 | 12 | 12.97% | 4.03 | 2.54 |
| Averages | 9.88% | 6.38 | 5.58 |
Tim's NY/T has dropped from 5.32 to 5.08, and he's gone from being ranked 32nd to 36th. As for his rate of negative plays, 12.21% puts Tebow at 10th-worst of out these 40 quarterbacks.
We'll update these numbers next week with the playoff games included, because the more data we have, the truer the picture we'll have.
