Tim Tebow has now started 10 games this season, and although he was responsible for two Denver TDs on Saturday, two of his four turnovers were brought back for six points by the Bills. Along with the 45-10 loss to Detroit in his second start of the season, Tebow now has two games where he was charged with both a pick-six and a fumble return for a score.
Although the narrative had been that Tebow takes exceptional care of the football, he now has 12 fumbles to go along with five interceptions. Among the NFL's top 40 QBs in terms of pass attempts, Tebow now has the second-highest sack rate (10.7%), third-highest fumble rate (3.0%) and the tenth-highest negative play rate (sacks, fumbles, interceptions - 11.9%).
Let's see how he stacks up in terms of Adjusted Net Yards and Net Yards:
As always, the math:
We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:
[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]
The values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:
- We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
- We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events.
The Negative Play % column shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.
Like last week, I'm going to constrain the list to the top 40 passers in terms of pass attempts. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future:
2011 QB Data through Week 16, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch
| Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 598 | 4,681 | 48 | 7.69% | 7.83 | 8.75 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 666 | 5,010 | 42 | 5.71% | 7.52 | 7.85 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 647 | 4,851 | 39 | 6.80% | 7.50 | 7.67 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Tony Romo | 535 | 3,749 | 30 | 8.41% | 7.01 | 6.98 |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford | 660 | 4,357 | 36 | 8.03% | 6.60 | 6.47 |
| 7 | Eli Manning | 611 | 4,404 | 27 | 8.18% | 7.21 | 6.45 |
| 8 | Cam Newton | 646 | 4,355 | 34 | 8.36% | 6.74 | 6.41 |
| 9 | Matt Ryan | 620 | 3,982 | 29 | 6.94% | 6.42 | 6.20 |
| 10 | Michael Vick | 480 | 3,448 | 16 | 8.96% | 7.18 | 5.98 |
| 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | 542 | 3,679 | 21 | 11.07% | 6.79 | 5.88 |
| 12 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 13 | Philip Rivers | 609 | 4,155 | 25 | 9.52% | 6.82 | 5.72 |
| 14 | Carson Palmer | 316 | 2,231 | 12 | 10.76% | 7.06 | 5.46 |
| 15 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 16 | Alex Smith | 503 | 2,865 | 17 | 10.54% | 5.70 | 5.44 |
| 17 | Andy Dalton | 528 | 3,142 | 21 | 7.58% | 5.95 | 5.37 |
| 18 | Matt Hasselbeck | 518 | 3,196 | 16 | 6.56% | 6.17 | 5.30 |
| 19 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 10.75% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 20 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 594 | 3,567 | 22 | 7.74% | 6.01 | 4.89 |
| 21 | Kyle Orton | 242 | 1,543 | 9 | 9.09% | 6.38 | 4.87 |
| 22 | Joe Flacco | 592 | 3,360 | 20 | 8.95% | 5.68 | 4.79 |
| 23T | Matt Moore | 380 | 2,226 | 17 | 14.74% | 5.86 | 4.63 |
| 23T | Mark Sanchez | 584 | 3,128 | 30 | 10.62% | 5.36 | 4.63 |
| 25 | Tim Tebow | 396 | 2,106 | 18 | 11.87% | 5.32 | 4.57 |
| 26 | Josh Freeman | 585 | 3,393 | 18 | 9.23% | 5.80 | 4.48 |
| 27 | Kevin Kolb | 300 | 1,801 | 9 | 15.33% | 6.00 | 4.47 |
| 28 | Tarvaris Jackson | 492 | 2,714 | 14 | 11.59% | 5.52 | 4.42 |
| 29 | Dan Orlovsky | 169 | 873 | 5 | 10.65% | 5.17 | 4.19 |
| 30 | Rex Grossman | 457 | 2,714 | 16 | 11.16% | 5.94 | 4.16 |
| 31 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 32 | Christian Ponder | 338 | 1,883 | 13 | 13.91% | 5.57 | 4.12 |
| 33 | T.J. Yates | 158 | 890 | 3 | 13.92% | 5.63 | 4.05 |
| 34 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 35 | Colt McCoy | 557 | 2,767 | 14 | 9.69% | 4.97 | 3.89 |
| 36 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 14.56% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 37 | John Skelton | 279 | 1,603 | 10 | 13.62% | 5.75 | 3.86 |
| 38 | Sam Bradford | 411 | 1,942 | 6 | 12.65% | 4.73 | 3.51 |
| 39 | Tyler Palko | 150 | 728 | 2 | 12.67% | 4.85 | 2.79 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 476 | 1,951 | 11 | 12.82% | 4.10 | 2.57 |
| Averages | 9.92% | 6.37 | 5.57 |
Tim had ranked 19th in the league after Week 15 with a 5.08 ANY/T, but Saturday dragged him all the way down to 25th with a 4.57 ANY/T. This speaks not only to the significant impact of his four turnovers (and one recovered fumble), but also is yet another reminder that we're dealing with a modest sample size.
Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:
2011 QB Data through Week 16, sorted by Net Yards per Touch
| Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 598 | 4,681 | 48 | 7.69% | 7.83 | 8.75 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 666 | 5,010 | 42 | 5.71% | 7.52 | 7.85 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 647 | 4,851 | 39 | 6.80% | 7.50 | 7.67 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Eli Manning | 611 | 4,404 | 27 | 8.18% | 7.21 | 6.45 |
| 6 | Michael Vick | 480 | 3,448 | 16 | 8.96% | 7.18 | 5.98 |
| 7 | Carson Palmer | 316 | 2,231 | 12 | 10.76% | 7.06 | 5.46 |
| 8 | Tony Romo | 535 | 3,749 | 30 | 8.41% | 7.01 | 6.98 |
| 9 | Philip Rivers | 609 | 4,155 | 25 | 9.52% | 6.82 | 5.72 |
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 542 | 3,679 | 21 | 11.07% | 6.79 | 5.88 |
| 11 | Cam Newton | 646 | 4,355 | 34 | 8.36% | 6.74 | 6.41 |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | 660 | 4,357 | 36 | 8.03% | 6.60 | 6.47 |
| 13 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 14 | Matt Ryan | 620 | 3,982 | 29 | 6.94% | 6.42 | 6.20 |
| 15 | Kyle Orton | 242 | 1,543 | 9 | 9.09% | 6.38 | 4.87 |
| 16 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 17 | Matt Hasselbeck | 518 | 3,196 | 16 | 6.56% | 6.17 | 5.30 |
| 18 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 594 | 3,567 | 22 | 7.74% | 6.01 | 4.89 |
| 19 | Kevin Kolb | 300 | 1,801 | 9 | 15.33% | 6.00 | 4.47 |
| 20 | Andy Dalton | 528 | 3,142 | 21 | 7.58% | 5.95 | 5.37 |
| 21 | Rex Grossman | 457 | 2,714 | 16 | 11.16% | 5.94 | 4.16 |
| 22 | Matt Moore | 380 | 2,226 | 17 | 14.74% | 5.86 | 4.63 |
| 23 | Josh Freeman | 585 | 3,393 | 18 | 9.23% | 5.80 | 4.48 |
| 24 | John Skelton | 279 | 1,603 | 10 | 13.62% | 5.75 | 3.86 |
| 25 | Alex Smith | 503 | 2,865 | 17 | 10.54% | 5.70 | 5.44 |
| 26 | Joe Flacco | 592 | 3,360 | 20 | 8.95% | 5.68 | 4.79 |
| 27 | T.J. Yates | 158 | 890 | 3 | 13.92% | 5.63 | 4.05 |
| 28 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 29 | Christian Ponder | 338 | 1,883 | 13 | 13.91% | 5.57 | 4.12 |
| 30 | Tarvaris Jackson | 492 | 2,714 | 14 | 11.59% | 5.52 | 4.42 |
| 31 | Mark Sanchez | 584 | 3,128 | 30 | 10.62% | 5.36 | 4.63 |
| 32T | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 32T | Tim Tebow | 396 | 2,106 | 18 | 11.87% | 5.32 | 4.57 |
| 34 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 10.75% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 35T | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 14.56% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 35T | Dan Orlovsky | 169 | 873 | 5 | 10.65% | 5.17 | 4.19 |
| 37 | Colt McCoy | 557 | 2,767 | 14 | 9.69% | 4.97 | 3.89 |
| 38 | Tyler Palko | 150 | 728 | 2 | 12.67% | 4.85 | 2.79 |
| 39 | Sam Bradford | 411 | 1,942 | 6 | 12.65% | 4.73 | 3.51 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 476 | 1,951 | 11 | 12.82% | 4.10 | 2.57 |
| Averages | 9.92% | 6.37 | 5.57 |
Not quite as drastic a change here, as Tim's average slipped from 5.42 to 5.32 and his ranking dropped one notch to 33rd. is now a tie for 32nd with Matt Cassel.
Has Tim been figured out? Was his early lack of turnovers a matter of luck which has more recently caught up to him? Or is this just a bad stretch that will prove to be an anomaly or speed bump along the way? Of course, we'll only know by seeing him play more. The question is, after Sunday will we want to see more, or will we be yearning for a more polished pocket passer?
