STDL: QB stats through 16 weeks

Tim Tebow has now started 10 games this season, and although he was responsible for two Denver TDs on Saturday, two of his four turnovers were brought back for six points by the Bills. Along with the 45-10 loss to Detroit in his second start of the season, Tebow now has two games where he was charged with both a pick-six and a fumble return for a score.

Although the narrative had been that Tebow takes exceptional care of the football, he now has 12 fumbles to go along with five interceptions. Among the NFL's top 40 QBs in terms of pass attempts, Tebow now has the second-highest sack rate (10.7%), third-highest fumble rate (3.0%) and the tenth-highest negative play rate (sacks, fumbles, interceptions - 11.9%).

Let's see how he stacks up in terms of Adjusted Net Yards and Net Yards:

As always, the math:

We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:

[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]

The values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)] 

The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:

  1. We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
  2. We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events.

The Negative Play % column shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.

Like last week, I'm going to constrain the list to the top 40 passers in terms of pass attempts. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future:

2011 QB Data through Week 16, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch

    Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 598 4,681 48 7.69% 7.83 8.75
2 Drew Brees 666 5,010 42 5.71% 7.52 7.85
3 Tom Brady 647 4,851 39 6.80% 7.50 7.67
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Tony Romo 535 3,749 30 8.41% 7.01 6.98
6 Matthew Stafford 660 4,357 36 8.03% 6.60 6.47
7 Eli Manning 611 4,404 27 8.18% 7.21 6.45
8 Cam Newton 646 4,355 34 8.36% 6.74 6.41
9 Matt Ryan 620 3,982 29 6.94% 6.42 6.20
10 Michael Vick 480 3,448 16 8.96% 7.18 5.98
11 Ben Roethlisberger 542 3,679 21 11.07% 6.79 5.88
12 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
13 Philip Rivers 609 4,155 25 9.52% 6.82 5.72
14 Carson Palmer 316 2,231 12 10.76% 7.06 5.46
15 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
16 Alex Smith 503 2,865 17 10.54% 5.70 5.44
17 Andy Dalton 528 3,142 21 7.58% 5.95 5.37
18 Matt Hasselbeck 518 3,196 16 6.56% 6.17 5.30
19 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 10.75% 5.23 4.90
20 Ryan Fitzpatrick 594 3,567 22 7.74% 6.01 4.89
21 Kyle Orton 242 1,543 9 9.09% 6.38 4.87
22 Joe Flacco 592 3,360 20 8.95% 5.68 4.79
23T Matt Moore 380 2,226 17 14.74% 5.86 4.63
23T Mark Sanchez 584 3,128 30 10.62% 5.36 4.63
25 Tim Tebow 396 2,106 18 11.87% 5.32 4.57
26 Josh Freeman 585 3,393 18 9.23% 5.80 4.48
27 Kevin Kolb 300 1,801 9 15.33% 6.00 4.47
28 Tarvaris Jackson 492 2,714 14 11.59% 5.52 4.42
29 Dan Orlovsky 169 873 5 10.65% 5.17 4.19
30 Rex Grossman 457 2,714 16 11.16% 5.94 4.16
31 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
32 Christian Ponder 338 1,883 13 13.91% 5.57 4.12
33 T.J. Yates 158 890 3 13.92% 5.63 4.05
34 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
35 Colt McCoy 557 2,767 14 9.69% 4.97 3.89
36 John Beck 158 817 4 14.56% 5.17 3.87
37 John Skelton 279 1,603 10 13.62% 5.75 3.86
38 Sam Bradford 411 1,942 6 12.65% 4.73 3.51
39 Tyler Palko 150 728 2 12.67% 4.85 2.79
40 Blaine Gabbert 476 1,951 11 12.82% 4.10 2.57
  Averages       9.92% 6.37 5.57


Tim had ranked 19th in the league after Week 15 with a 5.08 ANY/T, but Saturday dragged him all the way down to 25th with a 4.57 ANY/T. This speaks not only to the significant impact of his four turnovers (and one recovered fumble), but also is yet another reminder that we're dealing with a modest sample size.

Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]

This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:

2011 QB Data through Week 16, sorted by Net Yards per Touch

    Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 598 4,681 48 7.69% 7.83 8.75
2 Drew Brees 666 5,010 42 5.71% 7.52 7.85
3 Tom Brady 647 4,851 39 6.80% 7.50 7.67
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Eli Manning 611 4,404 27 8.18% 7.21 6.45
6 Michael Vick 480 3,448 16 8.96% 7.18 5.98
7 Carson Palmer 316 2,231 12 10.76% 7.06 5.46
8 Tony Romo 535 3,749 30 8.41% 7.01 6.98
9 Philip Rivers 609 4,155 25 9.52% 6.82 5.72
10 Ben Roethlisberger 542 3,679 21 11.07% 6.79 5.88
11 Cam Newton 646 4,355 34 8.36% 6.74 6.41
12 Matthew Stafford 660 4,357 36 8.03% 6.60 6.47
13 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
14 Matt Ryan 620 3,982 29 6.94% 6.42 6.20
15 Kyle Orton 242 1,543 9 9.09% 6.38 4.87
16 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
17 Matt Hasselbeck 518 3,196 16 6.56% 6.17 5.30
18 Ryan Fitzpatrick 594 3,567 22 7.74% 6.01 4.89
19 Kevin Kolb 300 1,801 9 15.33% 6.00 4.47
20 Andy Dalton 528 3,142 21 7.58% 5.95 5.37
21 Rex Grossman 457 2,714 16 11.16% 5.94 4.16
22 Matt Moore 380 2,226 17 14.74% 5.86 4.63
23 Josh Freeman 585 3,393 18 9.23% 5.80 4.48
24 John Skelton 279 1,603 10 13.62% 5.75 3.86
25 Alex Smith 503 2,865 17 10.54% 5.70 5.44
26 Joe Flacco 592 3,360 20 8.95% 5.68 4.79
27 T.J. Yates 158 890 3 13.92% 5.63 4.05
28 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
29 Christian Ponder 338 1,883 13 13.91% 5.57 4.12
30 Tarvaris Jackson 492 2,714 14 11.59% 5.52 4.42
31 Mark Sanchez 584 3,128 30 10.62% 5.36 4.63
32T Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
32T Tim Tebow 396 2,106 18 11.87% 5.32 4.57
34 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 10.75% 5.23 4.90
35T John Beck 158 817 4 14.56% 5.17 3.87
35T Dan Orlovsky 169 873 5 10.65% 5.17 4.19
37 Colt McCoy 557 2,767 14 9.69% 4.97 3.89
38 Tyler Palko 150 728 2 12.67% 4.85 2.79
39 Sam Bradford 411 1,942 6 12.65% 4.73 3.51
40 Blaine Gabbert 476 1,951 11 12.82% 4.10 2.57
  Averages       9.92% 6.37 5.57


Not quite as drastic a change here, as Tim's average slipped from 5.42 to 5.32 and his ranking dropped one notch to 33rd. is now a tie for 32nd with Matt Cassel.

Has Tim been figured out? Was his early lack of turnovers a matter of luck which has more recently caught up to him? Or is this just a bad stretch that will prove to be an anomaly or speed bump along the way? Of course, we'll only know by seeing him play more. The question is, after Sunday will we want to see more, or will we be yearning for a more polished pocket passer?

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

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