Let's see how Tim Tebow's offensive numbers look after nine starts as the Broncos starting QB. Prior to the New England game, Tebow was 20th in the league in Adjusted Net Yards per Touch and 33rd in Net Yards per Touch, out of the 40 passers who had attempted 100 or more passes. While there are now 43 QBs who've thrown over 100 passes, we'll constrain the list to the top 40 players in terms of attempts:
First, the math:
We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:
[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]
The values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:
- We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
- We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events.
The Negative Play % column shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.
In the following charts, I've included the top 40 quarterbacks in terms of pass attempts. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future:
2011 QB Data through Week 15, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch
| Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 565 | 4,380 | 43 | 8.14% | 7.75 | 8.55 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 625 | 4,702 | 38 | 5.60% | 7.52 | 7.89 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 588 | 4,553 | 36 | 6.80% | 7.74 | 7.83 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Tony Romo | 533 | 3,749 | 30 | 8.44% | 7.03 | 7.01 |
| 6 | Eli Manning | 581 | 4,188 | 26 | 8.09% | 7.21 | 6.46 |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | 619 | 3,999 | 33 | 8.08% | 6.46 | 6.23 |
| 8 | Cam Newton | 622 | 4,127 | 30 | 8.52% | 6.64 | 6.16 |
| 9 | Matt Ryan | 566 | 3,612 | 28 | 7.60% | 6.38 | 6.11 |
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 542 | 3,679 | 21 | 11.07% | 6.79 | 5.88 |
| 11 | Philip Rivers | 556 | 3,856 | 24 | 10.07% | 6.94 | 5.86 |
| 12 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 13 | Michael Vick | 443 | 3,157 | 14 | 9.26% | 7.13 | 5.73 |
| 14 | Alex Smith | 470 | 2,672 | 17 | 10.64% | 5.69 | 5.48 |
| 15 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 16 | Carson Palmer | 290 | 1,994 | 11 | 11.03% | 6.88 | 5.38 |
| 17 | Andy Dalton | 490 | 2,958 | 19 | 7.76% | 6.04 | 5.33 |
| 18 | Matt Hasselbeck | 472 | 2,852 | 15 | 6.57% | 6.04 | 5.24 |
| 19 | Tim Tebow | 353 | 1,912 | 16 | 11.05% | 5.42 | 5.08 |
| 20 | Mark Sanchez | 516 | 2,889 | 28 | 10.47% | 5.60 | 4.94 |
| 21 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 2.85% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 22 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 563 | 3,354 | 22 | 7.99% | 5.96 | 4.79 |
| 23 | Joe Flacco | 563 | 3,208 | 18 | 9.06% | 5.70 | 4.77 |
| 24 | Matt Moore | 339 | 1,961 | 14 | 13.86% | 5.78 | 4.68 |
| 25 | Kyle Orton | 205 | 1,241 | 8 | 9.76% | 6.05 | 4.61 |
| 26 | Kevin Kolb | 300 | 1,801 | 9 | 15.33% | 6.00 | 4.47 |
| 27 | Tarvaris Jackson | 458 | 2,568 | 13 | 11.57% | 5.61 | 4.46 |
| 28 | Josh Freeman | 538 | 3,131 | 16 | 9.11% | 5.82 | 4.45 |
| 29 | Dan Orlovsky | 169 | 873 | 5 | 10.65% | 5.17 | 4.19 |
| 30 | John Skelton | 226 | 1,340 | 8 | 12.83% | 5.93 | 4.18 |
| 31 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 32 | Christian Ponder | 320 | 1,796 | 13 | 14.38% | 5.61 | 4.08 |
| 33 | Rex Grossman | 413 | 2,458 | 14 | 11.14% | 5.95 | 4.08 |
| 34 | T.J. Yates | 158 | 890 | 3 | 13.92% | 5.63 | 4.05 |
| 35 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 36 | Colt McCoy | 557 | 2,767 | 14 | 9.69% | 4.97 | 3.89 |
| 37 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 14.56% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 38 | Sam Bradford | 411 | 1,942 | 6 | 12.65% | 4.73 | 3.51 |
| 39 | Tyler Palko | 150 | 728 | 2 | 12.67% | 4.85 | 2.79 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 432 | 1,760 | 11 | 13.66% | 4.07 | 2.49 |
| Averages | 9.90% | 6.37 | 5.56 |
Tim moved up from 20th to 19th, improving from 5.33 ANY/T to 5.42 ANY/T.
Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:
2011 QB Data through Week 15, sorted by Net Yards per Touch
| Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 565 | 4,380 | 43 | 8.14% | 7.75 | 8.55 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | 588 | 4,553 | 36 | 6.80% | 7.74 | 7.83 |
| 3 | Drew Brees | 625 | 4,702 | 38 | 5.60% | 7.52 | 7.89 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Eli Manning | 581 | 4,188 | 26 | 8.09% | 7.21 | 6.46 |
| 6 | Michael Vick | 443 | 3,157 | 14 | 9.26% | 7.13 | 5.73 |
| 7 | Tony Romo | 533 | 3,749 | 30 | 8.44% | 7.03 | 7.01 |
| 8 | Philip Rivers | 556 | 3,856 | 24 | 10.07% | 6.94 | 5.86 |
| 9 | Carson Palmer | 290 | 1,994 | 11 | 11.03% | 6.88 | 5.38 |
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 542 | 3,679 | 21 | 11.07% | 6.79 | 5.88 |
| 11 | Cam Newton | 622 | 4,127 | 30 | 8.52% | 6.64 | 6.16 |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | 619 | 3,999 | 33 | 8.08% | 6.46 | 6.23 |
| 13 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 14 | Matt Ryan | 566 | 3,612 | 28 | 7.60% | 6.38 | 6.11 |
| 15 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 16 | Kyle Orton | 205 | 1,241 | 8 | 9.76% | 6.05 | 4.61 |
| 17 | Matt Hasselbeck | 472 | 2,852 | 15 | 6.57% | 6.04 | 5.24 |
| 18 | Andy Dalton | 490 | 2,958 | 19 | 7.76% | 6.04 | 5.33 |
| 19 | Kevin Kolb | 300 | 1,801 | 9 | 15.33% | 6.00 | 4.47 |
| 20 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 563 | 3,354 | 22 | 7.99% | 5.96 | 4.79 |
| 21 | Rex Grossman | 413 | 2,458 | 14 | 11.14% | 5.95 | 4.08 |
| 22 | John Skelton | 226 | 1,340 | 8 | 12.83% | 5.93 | 4.18 |
| 23 | Josh Freeman | 538 | 3,131 | 16 | 9.11% | 5.82 | 4.45 |
| 24 | Matt Moore | 339 | 1,961 | 14 | 13.86% | 5.78 | 4.68 |
| 25 | Joe Flacco | 563 | 3,208 | 18 | 9.06% | 5.70 | 4.77 |
| 26 | Alex Smith | 470 | 2,672 | 17 | 10.64% | 5.69 | 5.48 |
| 27 | T.J. Yates | 158 | 890 | 3 | 13.92% | 5.63 | 4.05 |
| 28 | Christian Ponder | 320 | 1,796 | 13 | 14.38% | 5.61 | 4.08 |
| 29 | Tarvaris Jackson | 458 | 2,568 | 13 | 11.57% | 5.61 | 4.46 |
| 30 | Mark Sanchez | 516 | 2,889 | 28 | 10.47% | 5.60 | 4.94 |
| 31 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 32 | Tim Tebow | 353 | 1,912 | 16 | 11.05% | 5.42 | 5.08 |
| 33 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 34 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 2.85% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 35 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 14.56% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 36 | Dan Orlovsky | 169 | 873 | 5 | 10.65% | 5.17 | 4.19 |
| 37 | Colt McCoy | 557 | 2,767 | 14 | 9.69% | 4.97 | 3.89 |
| 38 | Tyler Palko | 150 | 728 | 2 | 12.67% | 4.85 | 2.79 |
| 39 | Sam Bradford | 411 | 1,942 | 6 | 12.65% | 4.73 | 3.51 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 432 | 1,760 | 11 | 13.66% | 4.07 | 2.49 |
| Averages | 9.90% | 6.37 | 5.56 |
In terms of NY/T, Tim has slipped from 5.15 to 5.08 but moved up from 33rd to 32nd.
