STDL: QB stats through 15 weeks

Let's see how Tim Tebow's offensive numbers look after nine starts as the Broncos starting QB. Prior to the New England game, Tebow was 20th in the league in Adjusted Net Yards per Touch and 33rd in Net Yards per Touch, out of the 40 passers who had attempted 100 or more passes. While there are now 43 QBs who've thrown over 100 passes, we'll constrain the list to the top 40 players in terms of attempts:

First, the math:

We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:

[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]

The values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)] 

The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:

  1. We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
  2. We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events.

The Negative Play % column shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.

In the following charts, I've included the top 40 quarterbacks in terms of pass attempts. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future:

2011 QB Data through Week 15, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch

    Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 565 4,380 43 8.14% 7.75 8.55
2 Drew Brees 625 4,702 38 5.60% 7.52 7.89
3 Tom Brady 588 4,553 36 6.80% 7.74 7.83
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Tony Romo 533 3,749 30 8.44% 7.03 7.01
6 Eli Manning 581 4,188 26 8.09% 7.21 6.46
7 Matthew Stafford 619 3,999 33 8.08% 6.46 6.23
8 Cam Newton 622 4,127 30 8.52% 6.64 6.16
9 Matt Ryan 566 3,612 28 7.60% 6.38 6.11
10 Ben Roethlisberger 542 3,679 21 11.07% 6.79 5.88
11 Philip Rivers 556 3,856 24 10.07% 6.94 5.86
12 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
13 Michael Vick 443 3,157 14 9.26% 7.13 5.73
14 Alex Smith 470 2,672 17 10.64% 5.69 5.48
15 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
16 Carson Palmer 290 1,994 11 11.03% 6.88 5.38
17 Andy Dalton 490 2,958 19 7.76% 6.04 5.33
18 Matt Hasselbeck 472 2,852 15 6.57% 6.04 5.24
19 Tim Tebow 353 1,912 16 11.05% 5.42 5.08
20 Mark Sanchez 516 2,889 28 10.47% 5.60 4.94
21 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 2.85% 5.23 4.90
22 Ryan Fitzpatrick 563 3,354 22 7.99% 5.96 4.79
23 Joe Flacco 563 3,208 18 9.06% 5.70 4.77
24 Matt Moore 339 1,961 14 13.86% 5.78 4.68
25 Kyle Orton 205 1,241 8 9.76% 6.05 4.61
26 Kevin Kolb 300 1,801 9 15.33% 6.00 4.47
27 Tarvaris Jackson 458 2,568 13 11.57% 5.61 4.46
28 Josh Freeman 538 3,131 16 9.11% 5.82 4.45
29 Dan Orlovsky 169 873 5 10.65% 5.17 4.19
30 John Skelton 226 1,340 8 12.83% 5.93 4.18
31 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
32 Christian Ponder 320 1,796 13 14.38% 5.61 4.08
33 Rex Grossman 413 2,458 14 11.14% 5.95 4.08
34 T.J. Yates 158 890 3 13.92% 5.63 4.05
35 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
36 Colt McCoy 557 2,767 14 9.69% 4.97 3.89
37 John Beck 158 817 4 14.56% 5.17 3.87
38 Sam Bradford 411 1,942 6 12.65% 4.73 3.51
39 Tyler Palko 150 728 2 12.67% 4.85 2.79
40 Blaine Gabbert 432 1,760 11 13.66% 4.07 2.49
  Averages       9.90% 6.37 5.56

Tim moved up from 20th to 19th, improving from 5.33 ANY/T to 5.42 ANY/T.

Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]

This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:

2011 QB Data through Week 15, sorted by Net Yards per Touch

    Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 565 4,380 43 8.14% 7.75 8.55
2 Tom Brady 588 4,553 36 6.80% 7.74 7.83
3 Drew Brees 625 4,702 38 5.60% 7.52 7.89
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Eli Manning 581 4,188 26 8.09% 7.21 6.46
6 Michael Vick 443 3,157 14 9.26% 7.13 5.73
7 Tony Romo 533 3,749 30 8.44% 7.03 7.01
8 Philip Rivers 556 3,856 24 10.07% 6.94 5.86
9 Carson Palmer 290 1,994 11 11.03% 6.88 5.38
10 Ben Roethlisberger 542 3,679 21 11.07% 6.79 5.88
11 Cam Newton 622 4,127 30 8.52% 6.64 6.16
12 Matthew Stafford 619 3,999 33 8.08% 6.46 6.23
13 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
14 Matt Ryan 566 3,612 28 7.60% 6.38 6.11
15 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
16 Kyle Orton 205 1,241 8 9.76% 6.05 4.61
17 Matt Hasselbeck 472 2,852 15 6.57% 6.04 5.24
18 Andy Dalton 490 2,958 19 7.76% 6.04 5.33
19 Kevin Kolb 300 1,801 9 15.33% 6.00 4.47
20 Ryan Fitzpatrick 563 3,354 22 7.99% 5.96 4.79
21 Rex Grossman 413 2,458 14 11.14% 5.95 4.08
22 John Skelton 226 1,340 8 12.83% 5.93 4.18
23 Josh Freeman 538 3,131 16 9.11% 5.82 4.45
24 Matt Moore 339 1,961 14 13.86% 5.78 4.68
25 Joe Flacco 563 3,208 18 9.06% 5.70 4.77
26 Alex Smith 470 2,672 17 10.64% 5.69 5.48
27 T.J. Yates 158 890 3 13.92% 5.63 4.05
28 Christian Ponder 320 1,796 13 14.38% 5.61 4.08
29 Tarvaris Jackson 458 2,568 13 11.57% 5.61 4.46
30 Mark Sanchez 516 2,889 28 10.47% 5.60 4.94
31 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
32 Tim Tebow 353 1,912 16 11.05% 5.42 5.08
33 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
34 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 2.85% 5.23 4.90
35 John Beck 158 817 4 14.56% 5.17 3.87
36 Dan Orlovsky 169 873 5 10.65% 5.17 4.19
37 Colt McCoy 557 2,767 14 9.69% 4.97 3.89
38 Tyler Palko 150 728 2 12.67% 4.85 2.79
39 Sam Bradford 411 1,942 6 12.65% 4.73 3.51
40 Blaine Gabbert 432 1,760 11 13.66% 4.07 2.49
  Averages       9.90% 6.37 5.56

In terms of NY/T, Tim has slipped from 5.15 to 5.08 but moved up from 33rd to 32nd.

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

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