Tim Tebow attempted 40 passes last week, so he finally qualifies to be ranked in NFL QB rate stats. In terms of traditional QB rating, Tebow sits at 14th among 32 qualifiers at 83.9, and in terms of PFR's NY/A and ANY/A he ranks 29th and 18th, respectively, out of 32 quarterbacks.
Those rankings aren't so bad, especially relative to the criticism lobbed at Tebow's play from folks like, well, this guy. Of course, the whole point of doing this is to see how much Tebow's running adds to his offensive contribution to the Broncos as compared to other QBs who run less, or not as well. Let's see how the numbers have changed since the first and second weeks we've done this.
First, the math:
We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:
[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]
The values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:
- We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
- We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events.
The Negative Play % column shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.
In the following charts, I've included everyone who's attempted at least 100 passes so far this year, which is 40 quarterbacks in total. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future:
2011 QB Data through Week 14, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch
| Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 523 | 4,135 | 41 | 7.84% | 7.91 | 8.76 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | 546 | 4,241 | 33 | 6.78% | 7.77 | 7.81 |
| 3 | Drew Brees | 583 | 4,286 | 33 | 5.83% | 7.35 | 7.63 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 5 | Tony Romo | 498 | 3,511 | 26 | 8.43% | 7.05 | 6.93 |
| 6 | Eli Manning | 538 | 3,955 | 26 | 7.62% | 7.35 | 6.79 |
| 7 | Ben Roethlisberger | 494 | 3,374 | 21 | 10.53% | 6.83 | 6.25 |
| 8 | Cam Newton | 590 | 3,933 | 28 | 8.64% | 6.67 | 6.10 |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford | 564 | 3,619 | 29 | 8.33% | 6.42 | 6.08 |
| 10 | Matt Ryan | 539 | 3,392 | 25 | 7.79% | 6.29 | 5.89 |
| 11 | Chad Henne | 138 | 913 | 5 | 11.59% | 6.62 | 5.78 |
| 12 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 13 | Philip Rivers | 533 | 3,586 | 23 | 10.51% | 6.73 | 5.56 |
| 14 | Michael Vick | 416 | 2,851 | 12 | 9.38% | 6.85 | 5.46 |
| 15 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 16 | Matt Hasselbeck | 431 | 2,630 | 15 | 6.73% | 6.10 | 5.43 |
| 17 | Alex Smith | 436 | 2,473 | 16 | 11.47% | 5.67 | 5.41 |
| 18 | Andy Dalton | 461 | 2,787 | 19 | 7.81% | 6.05 | 5.39 |
| 19 | Mark Sanchez | 484 | 2,766 | 26 | 9.71% | 5.71 | 5.19 |
| 20 | Tim Tebow | 315 | 1,678 | 14 | 10.16% | 5.33 | 5.15 |
| 21 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 10.75% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 22 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 511 | 3,056 | 20 | 7.63% | 5.98 | 4.87 |
| 23 | Joe Flacco | 523 | 3,010 | 16 | 8.41% | 5.76 | 4.86 |
| 24 | Carson Palmer | 247 | 1,647 | 10 | 11.74% | 6.67 | 4.83 |
| 25 | Kevin Kolb | 300 | 1,801 | 9 | 15.33% | 6.00 | 4.47 |
| 26 | Josh Freeman | 504 | 2,962 | 15 | 8.93% | 5.88 | 4.45 |
| 27 | Matt Moore | 317 | 1,767 | 12 | 13.88% | 5.57 | 4.38 |
| 28 | Tarvaris Jackson | 423 | 2,344 | 12 | 12.06% | 5.54 | 4.34 |
| 29 | Christian Ponder | 282 | 1,660 | 11 | 14.54% | 5.89 | 4.17 |
| 30 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 31 | Vince Young | 137 | 925 | 4 | 10.95% | 6.75 | 4.12 |
| 32 | Rex Grossman | 387 | 2,282 | 13 | 11.11% | 5.90 | 4.07 |
| 33 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 34 | Colt McCoy | 557 | 2,767 | 14 | 9.69% | 4.97 | 3.89 |
| 35 | John Skelton | 174 | 1,044 | 7 | 13.79% | 6.00 | 3.87 |
| 36 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 13.92% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 37 | Kyle Orton | 170 | 947 | 8 | 11.76% | 5.57 | 3.84 |
| 38 | Sam Bradford | 411 | 1,942 | 6 | 12.65% | 4.73 | 3.51 |
| 39 | Tyler Palko | 150 | 728 | 2 | 12.67% | 4.85 | 2.79 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 404 | 1,664 | 10 | 12.62% | 4.12 | 2.66 |
| Averages | 9.95% | 6.37 | 5.55 |
Tebow's numbers took something of a hit last week, as his NY/T dropped from 5.46 to 5.33 and his ANY/T fell all the way from 5.48 to 5.15 - this speaks to (still) a small sample size and the fact that Tim had 57 touches (passes, sacks, rushes) and just the one touchdown.
This one-game regression drops him back to 20th from 15th in terms of ANY/T.
Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:
[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]
This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:
2011 QB Data through Week 14, sorted by Net Yards per Touch
| Touches | Net Yds | TD | Neg Ply % | NY/T | ANY/T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 523 | 4,135 | 41 | 7.84% | 7.91 | 8.76 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | 546 | 4,241 | 33 | 6.78% | 7.77 | 7.81 |
| 3 | Matt Schaub | 323 | 2,390 | 17 | 7.74% | 7.40 | 7.29 |
| 4 | Drew Brees | 583 | 4,286 | 33 | 5.83% | 7.35 | 7.63 |
| 5 | Eli Manning | 538 | 3,955 | 26 | 7.62% | 7.35 | 6.79 |
| 6 | Tony Romo | 498 | 3,511 | 26 | 8.43% | 7.05 | 6.93 |
| 7 | Michael Vick | 416 | 2,851 | 12 | 9.38% | 6.85 | 5.46 |
| 8 | Ben Roethlisberger | 494 | 3,374 | 21 | 10.53% | 6.83 | 6.25 |
| 9 | Vince Young | 137 | 925 | 4 | 10.95% | 6.75 | 4.12 |
| 10 | Philip Rivers | 533 | 3,586 | 23 | 10.51% | 6.73 | 5.56 |
| 11 | Carson Palmer | 247 | 1,647 | 10 | 11.74% | 6.67 | 4.83 |
| 12 | Cam Newton | 590 | 3,933 | 28 | 8.64% | 6.67 | 6.10 |
| 13 | Chad Henne | 138 | 913 | 5 | 11.59% | 6.62 | 5.78 |
| 14 | Jason Campbell | 188 | 1,211 | 8 | 6.38% | 6.44 | 5.78 |
| 15 | Matthew Stafford | 564 | 3,619 | 29 | 8.33% | 6.42 | 6.08 |
| 16 | Matt Ryan | 539 | 3,392 | 25 | 7.79% | 6.29 | 5.89 |
| 17 | Jay Cutler | 355 | 2,215 | 14 | 10.42% | 6.24 | 5.45 |
| 18 | Matt Hasselbeck | 431 | 2,630 | 15 | 6.73% | 6.10 | 5.43 |
| 19 | Andy Dalton | 461 | 2,787 | 19 | 7.81% | 6.05 | 5.39 |
| 20 | Kevin Kolb | 300 | 1,801 | 9 | 15.33% | 6.00 | 4.47 |
| 21 | John Skelton | 174 | 1,044 | 7 | 13.79% | 6.00 | 3.87 |
| 22 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 511 | 3,056 | 20 | 7.63% | 5.98 | 4.87 |
| 23 | Rex Grossman | 387 | 2,282 | 13 | 11.11% | 5.90 | 4.07 |
| 24 | Christian Ponder | 282 | 1,660 | 11 | 14.54% | 5.89 | 4.17 |
| 25 | Josh Freeman | 504 | 2,962 | 15 | 8.93% | 5.88 | 4.45 |
| 26 | Joe Flacco | 523 | 3,010 | 16 | 8.41% | 5.76 | 4.86 |
| 27 | Mark Sanchez | 484 | 2,766 | 26 | 9.71% | 5.71 | 5.19 |
| 28 | Alex Smith | 436 | 2,473 | 16 | 11.47% | 5.67 | 5.41 |
| 29 | Curtis Painter | 276 | 1,544 | 6 | 10.87% | 5.59 | 3.93 |
| 30 | Matt Moore | 317 | 1,767 | 12 | 13.88% | 5.57 | 4.38 |
| 31 | Kyle Orton | 170 | 947 | 8 | 11.76% | 5.57 | 3.84 |
| 32 | Tarvaris Jackson | 423 | 2,344 | 12 | 12.06% | 5.54 | 4.34 |
| 33 | Tim Tebow | 315 | 1,678 | 14 | 10.16% | 5.33 | 5.15 |
| 34 | Matt Cassel | 317 | 1,688 | 10 | 11.36% | 5.32 | 4.13 |
| 35 | Donovan McNabb | 186 | 972 | 5 | 10.75% | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| 36 | John Beck | 158 | 817 | 4 | 13.92% | 5.17 | 3.87 |
| 37 | Colt McCoy | 557 | 2,767 | 14 | 9.69% | 4.97 | 3.89 |
| 38 | Tyler Palko | 150 | 728 | 2 | 12.67% | 4.85 | 2.79 |
| 39 | Sam Bradford | 411 | 1,942 | 6 | 12.65% | 4.73 | 3.51 |
| 40 | Blaine Gabbert | 404 | 1,664 | 10 | 12.62% | 4.12 | 2.66 |
| Averages | 9.95% | 6.37 | 5.55 |
Last week, Tim ranked 32nd out of 40 passers in terms of NY/T, and his performance against Chicago took him down a notch to 33rd out of 40.
When compared with the PFR metrics mentioned in the intro, these rankings show that to date, Tebow's running hasn't made a significant difference in his direct offensive contribution relative to other quarterbacks. Of course, Tim could do a lot to improve these numbers today against the Pats. Again, we're still dealing with relatively small numbers here as shown by the huge move in his ANY/T figure from week to week.
But there's something else to consider - as defenses continue to learn more about Tim (or as he plays better run defenses), his effectiveness running the ball has dropped from a whopping 7.2 YPA in his first five starts to just 3.4 YPA in his last three. For a while there, Tim was gaining more yards on the ground than via the pass, and recently the opposite has been true (and is preferable, of course).
This all serves to confirm what we know from watching each week - defenses will likely continue to focus on taking away Tim's running threat as much as they can, and dare him to beat them by throwing. The pundits have made that very point so many times in recent weeks that it's practically become a cliche, except it also happens to be the truth.
