STDL: QB stats through 14 weeks

Tim Tebow attempted 40 passes last week, so he finally qualifies to be ranked in NFL QB rate stats. In terms of traditional QB rating, Tebow sits at 14th among 32 qualifiers at 83.9, and in terms of PFR's NY/A and ANY/A he ranks 29th and 18th, respectively, out of 32 quarterbacks.

Those rankings aren't so bad, especially relative to the criticism lobbed at Tebow's play from folks like, well, this guy. Of course, the whole point of doing this is to see how much Tebow's running adds to his offensive contribution to the Broncos as compared to other QBs who run less, or not as well. Let's see how the numbers have changed since the first and second weeks we've done this.

First, the math:

We're basing our formula on the work already done by Chase Stuart for the PFR Blog (he's now at Chris Brown's SmartFootball.com after PFR closed their blog) but adding some tweaks. Here's the original formula:

[(PYD + 20*(PTD + RTD) - 45*INT - SKYDLST - 35*(FUM-FumRec)) / (ATT + SK +RTD)]

The values being used to bake in Touchdowns, Interceptions and Fumbles were based upon the work done by the authors of The Hidden Game of Football, which had originally valued a Touchdown as being worth 10 yards. Stuart explains the increase to 20 yards here. Here's the formula we're going to use for our Adjusted Net Yards per Touch:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds + 20*(Pass TD + Rush TD + Rec TD) - 45*INT - 35*FUM) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)] 

The differences between our formula and that used by Stuart at PFR are as follows:

  1. We've added rushing and receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As for the receiving stats, hey - you never know right?
  2. We're going with straight fumbles rather than net fumbles, because we're treating all fumbles as negative events - whether or not a team recovers its own or not. As we all should know by now, fumble recoveries are random events.

The Negative Play % column shows the frequency that each quarterback is sacked, intercepted, or fumbles - in other words, the worst results of all.

In the following charts, I've included everyone who's attempted at least 100 passes so far this year, which is 40 quarterbacks in total. First, let's look at ANY/T which will be one of those metrics (like ANY/A) better at telling a retrodictive story than predicting the future:

2011 QB Data through Week 14, sorted by Adjusted Net Yards per Touch

    Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 523 4,135 41 7.84% 7.91 8.76
2 Tom Brady 546 4,241 33 6.78% 7.77 7.81
3 Drew Brees 583 4,286 33 5.83% 7.35 7.63
4 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
5 Tony Romo 498 3,511 26 8.43% 7.05 6.93
6 Eli Manning 538 3,955 26 7.62% 7.35 6.79
7 Ben Roethlisberger 494 3,374 21 10.53% 6.83 6.25
8 Cam Newton 590 3,933 28 8.64% 6.67 6.10
9 Matthew Stafford 564 3,619 29 8.33% 6.42 6.08
10 Matt Ryan 539 3,392 25 7.79% 6.29 5.89
11 Chad Henne 138 913 5 11.59% 6.62 5.78
12 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
13 Philip Rivers 533 3,586 23 10.51% 6.73 5.56
14 Michael Vick 416 2,851 12 9.38% 6.85 5.46
15 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
16 Matt Hasselbeck 431 2,630 15 6.73% 6.10 5.43
17 Alex Smith 436 2,473 16 11.47% 5.67 5.41
18 Andy Dalton 461 2,787 19 7.81% 6.05 5.39
19 Mark Sanchez 484 2,766 26 9.71% 5.71 5.19
20 Tim Tebow 315 1,678 14 10.16% 5.33 5.15
21 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 10.75% 5.23 4.90
22 Ryan Fitzpatrick 511 3,056 20 7.63% 5.98 4.87
23 Joe Flacco 523 3,010 16 8.41% 5.76 4.86
24 Carson Palmer 247 1,647 10 11.74% 6.67 4.83
25 Kevin Kolb 300 1,801 9 15.33% 6.00 4.47
26 Josh Freeman 504 2,962 15 8.93% 5.88 4.45
27 Matt Moore 317 1,767 12 13.88% 5.57 4.38
28 Tarvaris Jackson 423 2,344 12 12.06% 5.54 4.34
29 Christian Ponder 282 1,660 11 14.54% 5.89 4.17
30 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
31 Vince Young 137 925 4 10.95% 6.75 4.12
32 Rex Grossman 387 2,282 13 11.11% 5.90 4.07
33 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
34 Colt McCoy 557 2,767 14 9.69% 4.97 3.89
35 John Skelton 174 1,044 7 13.79% 6.00 3.87
36 John Beck 158 817 4 13.92% 5.17 3.87
37 Kyle Orton 170 947 8 11.76% 5.57 3.84
38 Sam Bradford 411 1,942 6 12.65% 4.73 3.51
39 Tyler Palko 150 728 2 12.67% 4.85 2.79
40 Blaine Gabbert 404 1,664 10 12.62% 4.12 2.66
  Averages       9.95% 6.37 5.55

Tebow's numbers took something of a hit last week, as his NY/T dropped from 5.46 to 5.33 and his ANY/T fell all the way from 5.48 to 5.15 - this speaks to (still) a small sample size and the fact that Tim had 57 touches (passes, sacks, rushes) and just the one touchdown.

This one-game regression drops him back to 20th from 15th in terms of ANY/T.

Next, let's take a look at Net Yards per Touch, which is as follows:

[(Pass Yds + Rush Yds + Rec Yds - Sk Yds) / (Pass Att + Rush Att + Rec + Sks)]

This is simply a matter of adding rushing and receiving stats to NY/A. Here are the results:

2011 QB Data through Week 14, sorted by Net Yards per Touch

    Touches Net Yds TD Neg Ply % NY/T ANY/T
1 Aaron Rodgers 523 4,135 41 7.84% 7.91 8.76
2 Tom Brady 546 4,241 33 6.78% 7.77 7.81
3 Matt Schaub 323 2,390 17 7.74% 7.40 7.29
4 Drew Brees 583 4,286 33 5.83% 7.35 7.63
5 Eli Manning 538 3,955 26 7.62% 7.35 6.79
6 Tony Romo 498 3,511 26 8.43% 7.05 6.93
7 Michael Vick 416 2,851 12 9.38% 6.85 5.46
8 Ben Roethlisberger 494 3,374 21 10.53% 6.83 6.25
9 Vince Young 137 925 4 10.95% 6.75 4.12
10 Philip Rivers 533 3,586 23 10.51% 6.73 5.56
11 Carson Palmer 247 1,647 10 11.74% 6.67 4.83
12 Cam Newton 590 3,933 28 8.64% 6.67 6.10
13 Chad Henne 138 913 5 11.59% 6.62 5.78
14 Jason Campbell 188 1,211 8 6.38% 6.44 5.78
15 Matthew Stafford 564 3,619 29 8.33% 6.42 6.08
16 Matt Ryan 539 3,392 25 7.79% 6.29 5.89
17 Jay Cutler 355 2,215 14 10.42% 6.24 5.45
18 Matt Hasselbeck 431 2,630 15 6.73% 6.10 5.43
19 Andy Dalton 461 2,787 19 7.81% 6.05 5.39
20 Kevin Kolb 300 1,801 9 15.33% 6.00 4.47
21 John Skelton 174 1,044 7 13.79% 6.00 3.87
22 Ryan Fitzpatrick 511 3,056 20 7.63% 5.98 4.87
23 Rex Grossman 387 2,282 13 11.11% 5.90 4.07
24 Christian Ponder 282 1,660 11 14.54% 5.89 4.17
25 Josh Freeman 504 2,962 15 8.93% 5.88 4.45
26 Joe Flacco 523 3,010 16 8.41% 5.76 4.86
27 Mark Sanchez 484 2,766 26 9.71% 5.71 5.19
28 Alex Smith 436 2,473 16 11.47% 5.67 5.41
29 Curtis Painter 276 1,544 6 10.87% 5.59 3.93
30 Matt Moore 317 1,767 12 13.88% 5.57 4.38
31 Kyle Orton 170 947 8 11.76% 5.57 3.84
32 Tarvaris Jackson 423 2,344 12 12.06% 5.54 4.34
33 Tim Tebow 315 1,678 14 10.16% 5.33 5.15
34 Matt Cassel 317 1,688 10 11.36% 5.32 4.13
35 Donovan McNabb 186 972 5 10.75% 5.23 4.90
36 John Beck 158 817 4 13.92% 5.17 3.87
37 Colt McCoy 557 2,767 14 9.69% 4.97 3.89
38 Tyler Palko 150 728 2 12.67% 4.85 2.79
39 Sam Bradford 411 1,942 6 12.65% 4.73 3.51
40 Blaine Gabbert 404 1,664 10 12.62% 4.12 2.66
  Averages       9.95% 6.37 5.55

Last week, Tim ranked 32nd out of 40 passers in terms of NY/T, and his performance against Chicago took him down a notch to 33rd out of 40.

When compared with the PFR metrics mentioned in the intro, these rankings show that to date, Tebow's running hasn't made a significant difference in his direct offensive contribution relative to other quarterbacks. Of course, Tim could do a lot to improve these numbers today against the Pats. Again, we're still dealing with relatively small numbers here as shown by the huge move in his ANY/T figure from week to week.

But there's something else to consider - as defenses continue to learn more about Tim (or as he plays better run defenses), his effectiveness running the ball has dropped from a whopping 7.2 YPA in his first five starts to just 3.4 YPA in his last three. For a while there, Tim was gaining more yards on the ground than via the pass, and recently the opposite has been true (and is preferable, of course).

This all serves to confirm what we know from watching each week - defenses will likely continue to focus on taking away Tim's running threat as much as they can, and dare him to beat them by throwing. The pundits have made that very point so many times in recent weeks that it's practically become a cliche, except it also happens to be the truth.

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

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