Rahim Moore helped Ravens defy the laws of probability

TJ Johnson Jan 13, 2013 1:20 AM

Just how close were the Broncos to winning the game before Rahim "The Nightmare" Moore decided to play safety like he was trying to catch a home run ball against the outfield fence? Let's just say the fat lady wasn't just warm, she was hot and bothered:

According to the ESPN Stats & Info win probability model, Broncos had 97.2% chance to win the game in the situation before Jones' TD
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 13, 2013

Rahim Moore said it was his fault the Broncos lost the game. It's not true. It just really feels that way.

I’m glad we had this talk. Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

Prater booted the ground before hitting the ball. His plant foot slipped or he took his eyes off the ball or something. No wind effect on the ensuing knuckleballed kick.

Posted by laosuan on 2013-01-13 13:12:20

I wonder about Moore's mental state from the standpoint that I know he got shaken up at some point (in the 3rd quarter I think). I wonder if that was a head shot and perhaps he wasn't as all there as he should have been. Not searching for excuses - just wondering. I think the other thing to keep in mind regarding Prater's missed field goal, trying to get in field goal range at the end of regulation and Moore's botched play was that the wind was coming out of the south yesterday making kicking into it tough and perhaps giving throws with it just that extra bit of juice. I know, just looking for explanations.

Posted by SteveS on 2013-01-13 11:43:29

I'm not being an a-hole, just calling it like it is. Moore was horrific on that play and it looks like I was right about thinking he went for the INT rather than knocking the ball down or making sure if Jones caught the ball he didn't score. From Kiszla's story in the DP:

"I think I got a little too happy," said Moore, admitting he was going for the interception that would've made him a hero, rather than playing sound defensive technique. "I misjudged it, man."

Certainly there were many factors that led to the brutal loss, but one play stands out given the down, distance and situation. Sure Moore is taking the blame, but it doesn't lessen the sting.

http://www.denverpost.com/kisz...

Posted by Uncle Rico on 2013-01-13 10:53:46

See this whole "it's a team loss" is crap. The point of games is that events ebb and flow to a crescendo. That play was THE win or lose play of the game that events had led up to.....and he failed. I like Moore. Doesnt mean he's a bad person, we're talking about the game. This was his fault. He makes that play, we win, end of story. Prater hits the field goal, we may or may not win.

I hope Moore comes back next year and is motivated. I think he can do it. But this one is on him.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2013-01-13 10:48:07

I'm with Chris on this. Rahim was vastly improved this year. He just made an incredibly awful play at an incredibly awful time. But this was after more than a few derpy moves from the rest of the team, special teams excluded.

Prater's missed field goal had a huge impact on a game that was ultimately won by that margin. Perhaps Fox would have been more likely to NOT run the ball up the middle on 3rd and 7 to win the game had he been up by ten rather than only seven. Who knows?

Posted by ronin_jubei on 2013-01-13 10:12:34

Many Denver players, and even worse the coaches, had a chance to put this gd ame away. Moore obviously gets his share of the blame for the single worst play of the night... but DBs get burned... it happens, so I won't get too worried.

If Prater could kick straught, Doom avoid stupid penalties, PM not throw ill-advised balls, DT not let balls bounce off his hands... perhaps Moore's error is a footnote rather than a season ender. Even if it was a REALLY BAD play.

Posted by cjfarls on 2013-01-13 10:10:03

Moore did make a mistake but, as others have said, it comes down to a lot of factors.

The Broncos should bring some competition in for Moore, but that means getting a lower-priced veteran who has had a few years in the NFL and is hungry for a chance to prove himself. Somebody along the lines of Mike Adams, only younger. Hopefully a healthy Quinton Carter can provide additional competition.And then decide what to do with pending free agents. Either re-sign David Bruton to a short-term deal or be prepared to get a rookie who can provide depth and play special teams. I don't know if Jim Leonhard will be back.

Posted by Bob on 2013-01-13 09:57:31

Burke's chart had Denver at 99%.

Posted by Daniel McVicker on 2013-01-13 08:55:18

The season ends for 31 teams out there every year Rahim. The game could have changed on a number of plays and been in our favor. Your play was one of many and not the last play of the game. Sorry, I'm not gonna let you take the fall for that perfect storm of mishaps. I know you are hurting. Hell, we all are. But we are in this no matter what the outcome. We're Broncos fans. You are part of our family. Now go take a vacation and stay healthy and be ready to report in great shape for next season. Broncos For Life.

Posted by Greg Bays on 2013-01-13 07:44:11

Not his fault. Cut the kid slack. The loss is made up of a number of team errors. I'd rather throw Prater to the wolves than Moore.

Posted by laosuan on 2013-01-13 03:50:18

lol I was thinking of that line

Posted by generic internet commentor on 2013-01-13 03:04:21

There's no reason he should have a-holes like you going all high-and-mighty on him for making a mistake in a game. I promise you that it means a lot more to him than it does to you. You don't know what was going through his mind at that moment and it's ridiculous for you to claim that you do.

So, yes, I will continue to feel terribly for him, because in the grand scheme of things this game that we love doesn't mean very much and this kid is broken to pieces over it tonight.

Posted by Chris Sturgess on 2013-01-13 02:48:18

97.3%

"So you're saying there's a chance?"

Posted by A R on 2013-01-13 02:45:16

97% chance...wow. I hate you right now Rahim Moore. Gonna take a few days before I feel rational enough to say he shouldnt be cut tomorrow

Posted by generic internet commentor on 2013-01-13 02:44:25

Most improved? Probably Woodyard, Chris Harris or Beadles. While Moore did improve (though how could he not given how crappy he was last year?) he made more than a few big mistakes this year and continues to be out of position far too often. And for a guy that was supposed to be a ball hawk he's hardly that. But he surely thinks he is because at the end of the game tonight he was looking for the INT (opting flashy like "The Dream") rather than playing sound coverage and knocking the ball down. As MakeCents02 wrote it was a total "lack of situational awareness". So don't feel bad for Moore... he didn't do his job.

Posted by Uncle Rico on 2013-01-13 02:39:36

Hadn't even watched any of his sound bytes yet. Oh man. Poor kid is destroyed.

Posted by Chris Sturgess on 2013-01-13 02:39:20

The loss stings and I can't for the life of me figure out what Moore was thinking, but I feel for the kid. The Broncos lost that game for a whole lot of reasons. He had a good year (probably the team's most improved player) and one play doesn't change that, even if it came at the worst possible time. Hopefully he can bounce back and learn from it.

Posted by Chris Sturgess on 2013-01-13 02:13:27

Exactly. It's not just that it was physically misplayed, but that it demonstrated an amazing lack of situational awareness.

The only upside is if we don't have to hear Rahim "the dream" anymore. (I'm happy if he makes the team and plays - I've just never been a fan of self-applied superlatives, and especially when you haven't earned them. Perhaps that will now be obvious to Mr. Moore, too.)

Posted by MakeCents02 on 2013-01-13 02:03:50

Sure there were many factors that contributed to the loss - poor officiating, Champ getting roasted by Smith twice, Moreno inj., conservative offensive play calling, Prater chunk, and no consistent pressure on Flacco - but if there is one play/player that stands out above the rest as the reason Denver is done it's Moore. Considering down, distance and circumstance I cannot recall a worse defensive play in the NFL... in the last 25 years.

Posted by Uncle Rico on 2013-01-13 01:44:53

Rahim Moore helped Ravens defy the laws of probability

Offseason 2013 Features

A post-draft look at the Broncos’ cap situation

Denver Broncos 2013 undrafted free agent signings

Denver Broncos 2013 free agency tracker

Denver Broncos 2013 draft choice tracker

All Draft Features

Rahim Moore helped Ravens defy the laws of probability

Related

Offseason 2013 Features