Live 2013 NFL Draft analysis: First round

Ted Bartlett evaluates draft-eligible prospects in his spare time, among a number of activities he pursues, including managing an accounting team, golf, studying for the CPA exam, insulting various religious figures in writing, and generally, staying ahead of more than a few curves.  During the 2012 NFL Draft, he wiped the passion off of Jeff Legwold's face by nailing the Derek Wolfe pick, when Jeff had never even heard of him.  Ted also focuses on the NFL's business and legal environment, offensive and defensive schemes, going off on unrelated tangents, and all 32 teams in the NFL. Follow along as he offers his instant analysis of tonight's NFL Draft.

# Team Player Pos School
1 Kansas City Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
This is the first time that the first-overall pick has come from the MAC conference.  Fisher is the best OT in the class, but I feel strongly that he isn't a difference-maker.  He's more Joe Staley than Walter Jones.
2 Jacksonville Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
I think Joeckel is a slightly lesser version of Fisher.  He's a good player, but probably not a difference-maker.  It'll be interesting to see if he bumps Eugene Monroe to the right side, or if he ends up as the RT himself.
3 Miami (from OAK) Dion Jordan DE-OLB Oregon
Jordan is an exceptionally long player, and he moves really well.  I don't think he's as dynamic athletically as the very best pass rushers, but I do think he'll be a very good three-way OLB.
4 Philadelphia Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
Johnson is an exceptional athlete, but he's not terribly experienced at the OT position.  I agree with Mike Mayock that he's built to play up-tempo.
5 Detroit Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU
In the immortal words of itinerant basketball coach Larry Brown, "potential is a French word that means you aren't worth a damn yet."  Ansah has a ton of physical attributes, but I don't think he's that much of a player in the present day.  This is a projection guy, pure and simple.
6 Cleveland Barkevious Mingo DE-OLB LSU
Mingo has pretty average sack production, but his talent jumps off the screen.  He can really get off the edge quickly, and he can dip and rip better than either Jordan or Ansah.  The Browns are clearly prioritizing pass rush, which is smart.
7 Arizona Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina
Man, Mayock is looking smart tonight.  Eisen, not so much.  Cooper reminds me of Randall McDaniel, and he's going to help the Cardinals protect their QB more effectively than they have in years.
8 St. Louis (from BUF) Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
Austin is the most dangerous guy in the draft with the ball in his hands.  I don't think he's really a true receiver, as I've said, but if he's a Sproles-type guy who gets the ball more often, this is a well-used pick.  I have to think the Bills moved back to make drafting a QB more palatable.
9 New York Jets Dee Milliner CB Alabama
They felt like they had to replace Revis, I'm sure, and I think doing so makes sense.  Mayock doesn't like trading Revis for Milliner and a #3, but I like saving the big contract as Revis plays until he's in his 30s.
10 Tennessee Chance Warmack OG Alabama
Warmack is an absolute masher up front, and he's an interesting departure from the Titans' traditional reliance on a zone running scheme.  I'll be watching to see if they change to more of an angle-blocking design.
11 San Diego D.J. Fluker OT Alabama
Fluker is a pretty smart pick.  There's no question he can start right away at RT, and that gets them halfway to being better able to protect Philip Rivers.  I kind of agree that RT is no less important than LT in the modern NFL.
12 Oakland (from MIA) D.J. Hayden CB Houston
Two D.J.s in a row.  Hayden is a good looking CB who I don't think is worth this high a pick.  The Raiders need help everywhere, and I still give them credit for moving down and getting an extra second round pick, Jimmy Johnson's chart be damned.
13 New York Jets Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
Richardson is a really good player, but this is a weird pick.  He's a really quick 3-technique, and the Jets don't play the sort of scheme that would seem to call for a player like him.  This is lame duck stuff for Rex Ryan, picking in spite of his scheme preferences, like I suspected may happen.
14 Carolina Star Lotulelei DT Utah
I consider Lotulelei to be the second-best player in this class, behind only Jarvis Jones.  Star is scheme-indifferent and dominant; the Panthers just got better, and filled a huge hole.
15 New Orleans Kenny Vaccaro DB Texas
This is a good place to start in rebuilding a defense.  Vaccaro can cover the slot, drop into the box, and play center-field.  Nice pick for the Saints here.
16 Buffalo (from STL) E.J. Manuel QB Florida State
My RAMD has a hit, albeit a round earlier.  I had Buffalo picking him over some guys I had more highly rated, because he has the big arm.  I don't like his awareness and his production under pressure, but I think he was poorly coached at FSU.
17 Pittsburgh Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
Jones is the best football player in this class, and the pick makes all the sense in the world.  Jones is like Terrell Suggs as a rusher, and he can play zone too.  He also played in a pro-style 3-4, which is very rare in college.
18 San Francisco (from DAL) Eric Reid S LSU
Reid has been rising lately, per the draftniks, but I am not a huge fan of him.  I have seen him miss too many tackles and take too many false steps.
19 New York Giants Justin Pugh OL Syracuse
Mayock is on fire here.  Pugh has short arms, but OT feet.  I think this makes pretty good sense for the Giants.  Versatile guys on the offensive line always have added benefit, and to hear Pugh speak, he's accepting of the possibility that he's probably a guard in the NFL.
20 Chicago Kyle Long OG Oregon
Long is relatively inexperienced at OG, but he has the great bloodlines.  He has a reputation for being a little bit of a goof-off.  Long is raw, and I view this as a reach, but a lot of OL have gone tonight.
21 Cincinnati Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
The Bengals just made themselves much more dangerous with their 12 personnel package.  This is the cutting edge where offenses are really stressing defenses.  Nice pick for the Bengals.
22 Atlanta (from STL) Desmond Trufant CB Washington
Another guy from an NFL family, and he profiles the way the Falcons like to play coverage.  I give the Falcons credit for going up to get their guy.  Like the Broncos, they need quality, not quantity.
23 Minnesota Sharrif Floyd DT Florida
I was hoping the Broncos would go up to get Floyd, but the Vikings had to take him.  He's got the ability to be a consistent difference-maker, and you don't get that at #23 all that often.  He's the BPA, and a great scheme fit/need pick.
24 Indianapolis Bjoern Werner DE-OLB Florida State
Werner is reminiscent of Ryan Kerrigan, and I like him better as a 3-4 OLB than as a DE.  I don't think he's really dynamic as an athlete, but this is a solid pick.
25 Minnesota Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State
Rhodes is an interesting choice, because he's not really the Cover 2 CB that the Vikings have tended to favor.  It may signal that they want to play more man-to-man.  
26 Green Bay Datone Jones DE UCLA
Jones is a bit different as a 3-4 DE, because he's a little lighter and quicker than most.  I think he can have a good amount of impact for the Packers.  I don't want to say he's like JJ Watt, but he's quicker than most at the position.
27 Houston DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Hopkins is a guy I really like.  He's like a cross between Roddy White and Eric Decker to me.  I like his ability to run precise routes, and catch the ball in traffic.  I think he's a great fit for the Texans, and he adds a threat that they've lacked at the #2 WR spot.
28 Denver Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina
This isn't a good pick, it's a fantastic pick.  Williams is a top 10 talent in this class, and he can really penetrate and disrupt offenses from the inside.  The Broncos finally took a DT - can you believe it?  This guy has Pro Bowl ability, and I love the thinking of going DL in back-to-back years.
29 Minnesota (from NE) Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
Patterson is extremely dynamic with the ball in his hands, but I don't consider him to be a very proficient WR yet.  The Vikings paid a major price to go up and get him.
30 St. Louis (from ATL) Alec Ogletree LB Georgia
Ogletree is a big-time talent, but he's not a MLB.  He doesn't like to play through blocks, and is much more of a run-and-hit guy.  I like that the Rams took him to be a Will LB.  They've also had success with guys who got into trouble in college, like Ogletree did.
31 Dallas (from SF) Travis Frederick C Wisconsin
This is a "need pick" that can't really be confused with a BPA pick.  The Cowboys do suck at center, and Frederick can help them.  He could have been had at least half a round later, though.
32 Baltimore Matt Elam S Florida
Elam is a shorter, slightly slower version of Troy Polamalu.  He can go deep half-to-box, or box-to-deep half really quickly, and his recognition and tackling skills are excellent.  This is a really nice pick for the Super Bowl Champs (barf).  

1.  I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2.  I get my information from my eyes.

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