Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 9

The picks may come and go, but the Tim Tebow story remains.

Tebow and the Broncos have about a 33% chance of winning today.

That's a whole heck of a lot higher than anyone in the Black Hole being sober by gametime.

Enjoy the game, and if you happen to be a Broncos fan attending the game today in Oakland, wear your bulletproof Tebow jersey.

And watch out for grown men giving good drag queens a bad name.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are the incomparable Ted Bartlett, the idiotic TJ Johnson, the impertinent Doug Lee, and ingenious David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed while living under an overpass.  Lee, Bartlett and Singer use the minds of mortals.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow. 

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, if he wasn't drunk.

  Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
Week 8 7 8 8 10 9 10 9 7 9 10 9
Games 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Success % 53.85 61.54 61.54 76.92 69.23 76.92 69.23 53.85 69.23 76.92 69.23
                       
Overall 73 77 82 80 76 81 90 74 78 84 81
Games 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 116
Success % 62.93 66.38 70.69 68.97 65.52 69.83 77.59 63.79 67.24 72.41 69.83

Is it too early to begin to accuse my opponents of cheating?

The Picks

AWAY HOME Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
MIA KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC
ATL IND ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL
CLE HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU
NYJ BUF BUF BUF BUF NYJ BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF
SF WAS SF SF SF WAS WAS SF WAS SF SF SF SF
SEA DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL
TB NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
CIN TEN CIN TEN CIN TEN TEN TEN CIN CIN TEN CIN CIN
DEN OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK
NYG NE NE NE NYG NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
STL ARI STL ARI STL ARI ARI STL ARI ARI ARI ARI ARI
GB SD SD GB GB GB GB GB SD GB GB GB GB
BAL PIT PIT PIT BAL PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
CHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI CHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI

This week no one can muster the courage to take Tebow and the Broncos.

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY HOME Points - Away Team Point- Home Team Favorite Spread Prob.
MIA KC 11.85 19.02 KC 7.17 68.48%
ATL IND 21.83 10.34 ATL 11.49 78.61%
CLE HOU 12.26 28.49 HOU 16.23 87.18%
NYJ BUF 23.34 31.87 BUF 8.53 71.88%
SF WAS 30.32 18.42 SF 11.9 79.46%
SEA DAL 12.42 25.5 DAL 13.08 81.80%
TB NO 17.04 29.27 NO 12.23 80.13%
CIN TEN 23.53 19.85 CIN 3.68 59.07%
DEN OAK 13.14 19.74 OAK 6.6 67.01%
NYG NE 17.8 29.15 NE 11.35 78.31%
STL ARI 9.56 16.63 ARI 7.07 68.23%
GB SD 29.96 21.71 GB 8.25 71.20%
BAL PIT 26.88 25.7 BAL 1.18 51.96%
CHI PHI 24.28 28.42 PHI 4.14 60.36%

The locks (greater than 75% probability) this week look to be Houston, Atlanta, San Francisco, Dallas, New Orleans, and New England.  The team with the slimmest of margin (55% or smaller) was Baltimore.    

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove continues to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less.

1. Pittsburgh over Baltimore "Mike Tomlin's beard is trim and clean--like a good woman."


Get your freak on.  Follow TJ on Facebook and Twitter.  If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter.   TJ's email is tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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