The picks may come and go, but the Tim Tebow story remains.
Tebow and the Broncos have about a 33% chance of winning today.
That's a whole heck of a lot higher than anyone in the Black Hole being sober by gametime.
Enjoy the game, and if you happen to be a Broncos fan attending the game today in Oakland, wear your bulletproof Tebow jersey.
And watch out for grown men giving good drag queens a bad name.
The Results
As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are the incomparable Ted Bartlett, the idiotic TJ Johnson, the impertinent Doug Lee, and ingenious David Singer. Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed while living under an overpass. Lee, Bartlett and Singer use the minds of mortals.
The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow.
Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor. He'd be the most interesting man in the world, if he wasn't drunk.
| Ted | TJ | Doug | David | Baxter | King | Silver | Cole | Hoge | Accuscore | Pick 'Em | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Games | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Success % | 53.85 | 61.54 | 61.54 | 76.92 | 69.23 | 76.92 | 69.23 | 53.85 | 69.23 | 76.92 | 69.23 |
| Overall | 73 | 77 | 82 | 80 | 76 | 81 | 90 | 74 | 78 | 84 | 81 |
| Games | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 |
| Success % | 62.93 | 66.38 | 70.69 | 68.97 | 65.52 | 69.83 | 77.59 | 63.79 | 67.24 | 72.41 | 69.83 |
Is it too early to begin to accuse my opponents of cheating?
The Picks
| AWAY | HOME | Ted | TJ | Doug | David | Baxter | King | Silver | Cole | Hoge | Accuscore | Pick 'Em |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC |
| ATL | IND | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL |
| CLE | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU |
| NYJ | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | NYJ | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF |
| SF | WAS | SF | SF | SF | WAS | WAS | SF | WAS | SF | SF | SF | SF |
| SEA | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL |
| TB | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO |
| CIN | TEN | CIN | TEN | CIN | TEN | TEN | TEN | CIN | CIN | TEN | CIN | CIN |
| DEN | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK |
| NYG | NE | NE | NE | NYG | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE |
| STL | ARI | STL | ARI | STL | ARI | ARI | STL | ARI | ARI | ARI | ARI | ARI |
| GB | SD | SD | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | SD | GB | GB | GB | GB |
| BAL | PIT | PIT | PIT | BAL | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT |
| CHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | CHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI |
This week no one can muster the courage to take Tebow and the Broncos.
The Probability
If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:
| AWAY | HOME | Points - Away Team | Point- Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | KC | 11.85 | 19.02 | KC | 7.17 | 68.48% |
| ATL | IND | 21.83 | 10.34 | ATL | 11.49 | 78.61% |
| CLE | HOU | 12.26 | 28.49 | HOU | 16.23 | 87.18% |
| NYJ | BUF | 23.34 | 31.87 | BUF | 8.53 | 71.88% |
| SF | WAS | 30.32 | 18.42 | SF | 11.9 | 79.46% |
| SEA | DAL | 12.42 | 25.5 | DAL | 13.08 | 81.80% |
| TB | NO | 17.04 | 29.27 | NO | 12.23 | 80.13% |
| CIN | TEN | 23.53 | 19.85 | CIN | 3.68 | 59.07% |
| DEN | OAK | 13.14 | 19.74 | OAK | 6.6 | 67.01% |
| NYG | NE | 17.8 | 29.15 | NE | 11.35 | 78.31% |
| STL | ARI | 9.56 | 16.63 | ARI | 7.07 | 68.23% |
| GB | SD | 29.96 | 21.71 | GB | 8.25 | 71.20% |
| BAL | PIT | 26.88 | 25.7 | BAL | 1.18 | 51.96% |
| CHI | PHI | 24.28 | 28.42 | PHI | 4.14 | 60.36% |
The locks (greater than 75% probability) this week look to be Houston, Atlanta, San Francisco, Dallas, New Orleans, and New England. The team with the slimmest of margin (55% or smaller) was Baltimore.
Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks
McLove continues to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less.
1. Pittsburgh over Baltimore "Mike Tomlin's beard is trim and clean--like a good woman."
Get your freak on. Follow TJ on Facebook and Twitter. If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter. TJ's email is tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com
