IAOFM

Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 8

TJ Johnson Oct 30, 2011 12:45 PM

With ten minutes remaining before the first game today, here are the picks.

Sorry it took so long to get these out.

I was busy watching college football into the wee hours of the night.

Today's games feature a lot of big favorites.  That means we should see a lot of blowouts, right?

I highly doubt it.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are Ted Bartlett, TJ Johnson, Doug Lee, and David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed in the Orient for predicting winners.   Lee, Bartlett and Singer use their vast brain power.  Things are getting interesting.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow.  The experts continue to hold their own.

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, but only if he could find the time.

  Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
Week 7 9 7 9 9 6 6 10 7 6 9 8
Games 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Success 69.23 53.85 69.23 69.23 46.15 46.15 76.92 53.85 46.15 69.23 61.54
                       
Overall 66 69 74 70 67 71 81 67 69 74 72
Games 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103
Success 64.08 66.99 71.84 67.96 65.06 68.93 78.64 65.05 66.99 71.84 69.91

Mike Silver, if you stop by my house tomorrow night, I've got a nice candy apple for you.

The Picks

AWAY  HOME  Ted TJ  Doug David  Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
NO STL NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
MIA NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG
ARI BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL
IND TEN IND TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN IND TEN TEN TEN
MIN CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR MIN CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR
JAX HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU
DET DEN DEN DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET
WAS BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF
CIN SEA CIN SEA CIN CIN SEA CIN SEA SEA CIN CIN CIN
NE PIT NE NE NE PIT NE PIT NE NE PIT PIT NE
CLE SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF
DAL PHI PHI PHI DAL PHI DAL PHI PHI PHI DAL PHI PHI
SD KC SD SD SD SD KC SD KC SD SD SD SD

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY   HOME   FAVORITE   SPREAD   PROBABILITY OF WINNING
NO STL NO 19.02 90.93%
MIA NYG NYG 8.79 72.51%
ARI BAL BAL 19.46 91.43%
IND TEN TEN 11.46 78.55%
MIN CAR CAR 5.27 63.46%
JAX HOU HOU 14.87 85.01%
DET DEN DET 10.43 76.31%
WAS BUF BUF 10.82 77.17%
CIN SEA CIN 4.72 61.96%
NE PIT NE 2.84 56.70%
CLE SF SF 23.91 95.44%
DAL PHI DAL 1.68 53.39%
SD KC SD 1.7 53.45%

There were several teams this week that looked to be locks, including San Francisco,Houston, New Orleans, and Baltimore.  The teams with the slimmest of margins were the Cowboys and Chargers.  

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove continue to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less.

1. New England over Pittsburgh "It's almost Halloween and the Steelers are without James Harrison.  That's not scary."

2. Dallas over Philadelphia.  "Reid = Stache."

3. San Diego over Kansas City.  "Todd Haley = Facial Hair of Horror."

Get your freak on.  Follow TJ on Facebook and Twitter.  If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter.   TJ's email is tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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