Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 7

Before I get to this week's picks, let me give you a quick scouting report on the Miami Dolphins.

They try to run.  When that doesn't work, Brandon Marshall tries to push off up the field to get separation.  Call it the bully route.  

It's not been working that well this year.  In fact, it's been a bit clumsy.

Gee, where have I heard that before?

Look for the trend to continue.

Now, on to the picks.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are Ted Bartlett, TJ Johnson, Doug Lee, and David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed in the Orient for predicting winners.   Lee, Bartlett, and Singer use their vast brain power.  Things are getting interesting.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow.  The experts continue to hold their own outside of Jason Cole.

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, but only if he could find the time.

  Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
Week 6 8 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 8 10 9
Games 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Success 61.54 84.62 84.62 84.62 76.92 61.54 61.54 61.54 61.54 76.92 69.23
                       
Overall 57 62 65 61 61 65 71 60 63 65 64
Games 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Success 63.33 68.89 72.22 67.78 67.78 72.22 78.89 66.67 70.00 72.22 71.11

Mike Silver is beginning to lose his grip.  Let's hope a few weeks from now, he's in Jason Cole territory. 

The Picks

AWAY  HOME  Ted TJ  Doug David  Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
SD NYJ SD NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ SD NYJ SD SD SD SD
HOU TEN HOU TEN TEN HOU TEN TEN TEN HOU TEN HOU HOU
WAS CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR WAS CAR WAS CAR CAR CAR
DEN MIA DEN MIA DEN MIA DEN DEN DEN DEN MIA DEN DEN
SEA CLE CLE CLE CLE CLE SEA CLE CLE CLE CLE CLE CLE
ATL DET DET DET DET DET DET DET ATL DET DET DET DET
CHI TB TB TB CHI CHI TB TB CHI TB TB CHI TB
PIT ARI PIT PIT PIT PIT ARI PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
KC OAK KC OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK
GB MIN GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB
STL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL
IND NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
BAL JAX BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL

Kudos to everyone--except me--for having the guts to go with the Broncos.  I'm not sure it this comes from a faith in Tim Tebow or from the knowledge that the Miami Dolphins are a bad football team.

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY   HOME   FAVORITE   SPREAD   PROBABILITY OF WINNING
SD NYJ NYJ 8.86 72.68%
HOU TEN TEN 1.51 52.90%
WAS CAR PICK EM 0 PICK EM
DEN MIA MIA 1.65 53.31%
SEA CLE CLE 1.65 53.31%
ATL DET DET 8.53 71.88%
CHI TB CHI 3.19 57.69%
PIT ARI PIT 7.71 69.85%
KC OAK OAK 13.88 83.28%
GB MIN GB 10.02 75.38%
STL DAL DAL 17.29 88.71%
IND NO NO 14.65 84.64%
BAL JAX BAL 14.18 83.82%

There were several teams this week that looked to be locks, including Oakland, Dallas, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Green Bay.  The teams with the slimmest of margins were the Dolphins, Titans, and Browns.  And if you bet on the Redskins-Panthers game, you're in for a sure nailbiter.

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove is now 9-3 in his locks.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that he was 1-2 last week.  He'll continue to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less.

1. Carolina over Washington. "Shanny probably wishes he had Jake Plummer right about now."

2. Denver over Miami.  "Tebow is a virgin.  I find that quaint "

3. Seattle over Cleveland.  "God is busy watching Tebow, Colt McCoy.  Sorry."


Get your freak on.  Follow TJ on Facebook and Twitter.  If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter.   TJ's email is tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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