Before I get to this week's picks, let me give you a quick scouting report on the Miami Dolphins.
They try to run. When that doesn't work, Brandon Marshall tries to push off up the field to get separation. Call it the bully route.
It's not been working that well this year. In fact, it's been a bit clumsy.
Gee, where have I heard that before?
Look for the trend to continue.
Now, on to the picks.
As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are Ted Bartlett, TJ Johnson, Doug Lee, and David Singer. Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed in the Orient for predicting winners. Lee, Bartlett, and Singer use their vast brain power. Things are getting interesting.
The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow. The experts continue to hold their own outside of Jason Cole.
Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor. He'd be the most interesting man in the world, but only if he could find the time.
Mike Silver is beginning to lose his grip. Let's hope a few weeks from now, he's in Jason Cole territory.
Kudos to everyone--except me--for having the guts to go with the Broncos. I'm not sure it this comes from a faith in Tim Tebow or from the knowledge that the Miami Dolphins are a bad football team.
If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:
|AWAY||HOME||FAVORITE||SPREAD||PROBABILITY OF WINNING|
|WAS||CAR||PICK EM||0||PICK EM|
There were several teams this week that looked to be locks, including Oakland, Dallas, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Green Bay. The teams with the slimmest of margins were the Dolphins, Titans, and Browns. And if you bet on the Redskins-Panthers game, you're in for a sure nailbiter.
Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks
McLove is now 9-3 in his locks. That's the good news. The bad news is that he was 1-2 last week. He'll continue to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less.
1. Carolina over Washington. "Shanny probably wishes he had Jake Plummer right about now."
2. Denver over Miami. "Tebow is a virgin. I find that quaint "
3. Seattle over Cleveland. "God is busy watching Tebow, Colt McCoy. Sorry."