Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 6

The good news?  The Broncos can't lose this week.

The bad news?  They can't win either.

A bye week in the NFL is like going to jail in the game Monopoly.  You have to sit there and watch the rest of your family roll the dice, move their pieces (why the hell did everyone want to play the horse and rider?), and laugh, while you have to wait your turn.

At least in Monopoly you can roll doubles to get out and play again.  During the NFL bye week, you're just stuck.

Welcome to another edition of Fat Pickins, where we climb the stairway to crazy.  Here you get two things--our picks and probability.

Ask me no questions, and I'll tell you no lies.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are Ted Bartlett, TJ Johnson, Doug Lee, and David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula for predicting winners.   Lee, Bartlett, and Singer use their vast brain power.  So far, the brains are winning.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow.  The problem right now is they are winning, so I can't just start bombing them with juvenile blasts.  Give me time.

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and finally, Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, but only if he could find the time.

  Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
Week 5 9 8 9 8 6 8 9 7 10 10 9
Games 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Success 69.23 61.54 69.23 61.54 46.15 61.54 69.23 53.85 76.92 76.92 69.23
                       
Overall 49 51 54 50 51 57 63 52 55 55 55
Games 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77
Success 63.64 66.23 70.13 64.94 66.23 74.03 81.82 67.53 71.43 71.43 71.43

Mike Silver, screw you.  

The Picks

AWAY  HOME  Ted TJ  Doug David  Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
CAR ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL CAR CAR CAR CAR ATL ATL
IND CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN IND CIN CIN CIN
SF DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET
STL GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB
BUF NYG BUF NYG NYG NYG BUF BUF NYG BUF BUF NYG BUF
JAX PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
PHI WAS WAS PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI WAS PHI WAS PHI WAS
CLE OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK
HOU BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL
DAL NE NE NE NE NE NE NE DAL NE NE NE NE
NO TB NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
MIN CHI MIN CHI CHI CHI CHI MIN CHI CHI CHI MIN CHI
MIA NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ MIA NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ

Kudos to everyone this week for having the guts to not pick against the Broncos.

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY   HOME   FAVORITE   SPREAD   PROBABILITY OF WINNING
CAR ATL ATL 3.12 57.50%
IND CIN CIN 10.5 76.47%
SF DET DET 2.6 56.02%
STL GB GB 22.28 94.20%
BUF NYG BUF 3.06 57.33%
JAX PIT PIT 14.87 85.01%
PHI WAS WAS 1.98 54.25%
CLE OAK OAK 12.7 81.06%
HOU BAL BAL 8.48 71.76%
DAL NE NE 9.82 74.93%
NO TB NO 9.32 73.77%
MIN CHI CHI 4.38 61.02%
MIA NYJ NYJ 11.69 79.03%

The games to avoid this week were the Eagles-Skins, Bills-Giants, and 49ers-Lions.  Your safest bets?  The Packers and the Steelers.  The Packers are as much of a lock as you are ever going to find in professional football.  Come on, Josh McDaniels, put some points on the board!

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove--after his sixth bloody mary--has determined he will only give locks from games in which the spread is three points or less.

1. Philly over Washington. "Mike Vick is fast.  And he has a moustache"

2. Buffalo over the New York Giants.  "Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Facial Hair. Any questions?"

3. Detroit over San Francisco.  "Matt Stafford, grow some damn facial hair."


Get your freak on.  Follow TJ on Facebook and Twitter.  If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter.   TJ's email is tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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