The good news? The Broncos can't lose this week.
The bad news? They can't win either.
A bye week in the NFL is like going to jail in the game Monopoly. You have to sit there and watch the rest of your family roll the dice, move their pieces (why the hell did everyone want to play the horse and rider?), and laugh, while you have to wait your turn.
At least in Monopoly you can roll doubles to get out and play again. During the NFL bye week, you're just stuck.
Welcome to another edition of Fat Pickins, where we climb the stairway to crazy. Here you get two things--our picks and probability.
Ask me no questions, and I'll tell you no lies.
As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are Ted Bartlett, TJ Johnson, Doug Lee, and David Singer. Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula for predicting winners. Lee, Bartlett, and Singer use their vast brain power. So far, the brains are winning.
The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow. The problem right now is they are winning, so I can't just start bombing them with juvenile blasts. Give me time.
Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and finally, Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor. He'd be the most interesting man in the world, but only if he could find the time.
Mike Silver, screw you.
Kudos to everyone this week for having the guts to not pick against the Broncos.
If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:
|AWAY||HOME||FAVORITE||SPREAD||PROBABILITY OF WINNING|
The games to avoid this week were the Eagles-Skins, Bills-Giants, and 49ers-Lions. Your safest bets? The Packers and the Steelers. The Packers are as much of a lock as you are ever going to find in professional football. Come on, Josh McDaniels, put some points on the board!
Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks
McLove--after his sixth bloody mary--has determined he will only give locks from games in which the spread is three points or less.
1. Philly over Washington. "Mike Vick is fast. And he has a moustache"
2. Buffalo over the New York Giants. "Ryan Fitzpatrick. Facial Hair. Any questions?"
3. Detroit over San Francisco. "Matt Stafford, grow some damn facial hair."