Welcome to yet another week of Fat Pickins, our little experiment in math, the wisdom of crowds, and drunken stupors.
Here we put the weekly picks of Fat Man's finest up against a drunk, a mob, and an idiot. We'll leave it up to you to determine the latter.
We also mix in some probability and Baxter McLove's stone-cold drunk locks of the week. If you haven't followed McLove's locks, he's undefeated this season at 8-0.
Before we jump into last week's results and this week's games, let me say that if you wagered hard-earned money on the Broncos game today, I respect you. At the same time, I think you are certifiably loco. Or you've got a rich uncle named Joe Ellis. Perhaps both.
The Broncos have a 50.06% chance to win.
In other words, no one has a clue about this game.
The Results
As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are Ted Bartlett, TJ Johnson, Doug Lee, and David Singer. Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula for predicting winners. Lee, Bartlett, and Singer use their brains. So far, the brains are winning.
The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole, and Merril Hoge. Right now, they are doing so well, it's hard to make fun of them. Give it time. It's a long season.
Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-base Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and finally, Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor. He'd be the most interesting man in the world, but only if he could find the time.
| Ted | TJ | Doug | David | Baxter | King | Silver | Cole | Hoge | Accuscore | Pick 'Em | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Games | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Success | 68.75 | 62.50 | 75.00 | 62.50 | 75.00 | 81.25 | 81.25 | 62.50 | 81.25 | 75.00 | 81.25 |
| Overall | 40 | 43 | 45 | 42 | 45 | 49 | 54 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 46 |
| Games | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 |
| Success | 62.50 | 67.19 | 70.31 | 65.63 | 70.31 | 76.56 | 84.38 | 70.31 | 70.31 | 70.31 | 71.88 |
I won't lie. Mike Silver is annoying me with his picks. Someone needs to take him out.
The Picks
| AWAY | HOME | Ted | TJ | Doug | David | Baxter | King | Silver | Cole | Hoge | Accuscore | Pick 'Em |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | BUF | BUF | PHI | BUF | BUF | PHI | PHI | PHI | BUF | BUF | PHI | PHI |
| KC | IND | IND | IND | KC | IND | IND | IND | KC | IND | IND | KC | IND |
| ARI | MIN | MIN | MIN | MIN | ARI | MIN | MIN | MIN | ARI | MIN | MIN | MIN |
| SEA | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG |
| TEN | PIT | PIT | PIT | TEN | PIT | TEN | PIT | TEN | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT |
| NO | CAR | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO |
| CIN | JAX | CIN | JAX | CIN | JAX | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN |
| OAK | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | OAK | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU |
| TB | SF | SF | SF | TB | SF | TB | TB | TB | TB | SF | SF | SF |
| SD | DEN | DEN | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD |
| NYJ | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE |
| GB | ATL | GB | GB | GB | GB | ATL | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB |
| CHI | DET | DET | DET | DET | CHI | DET | DET | DET | CHI | DET | DET | DET |
Kudos to Ted this week for having the guts to take the Broncos.
The Probability
If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:
| AWAY | HOME | FAVORITE | SPREAD | PROBABILITY OF WINNING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | BUF | BUF | 6.81 | 67.55% |
| KC | IND | IND | 8.34 | 71.42% |
| ARI | MIN | MIN | 2.39 | 55.42% |
| SEA | NYG | NYG | 12.92 | 81.49% |
| TEN | PIT | PIT | 2.07 | 54.51% |
| NO | CAR | NO | 7.49 | 69.30% |
| CIN | JAX | CIN | 1.86 | 53.91% |
| OAK | HOU | HOU | 7.69 | 69.80% |
| TB | SF | SF | 2.77 | 56.50% |
| SD | DEN | DEN | 0.52 | 50.06% |
| NYJ | NE | NE | 6.76 | 67.42% |
| GB | ATL | GB | 8.71 | 72.32% |
| CHI | DET | DET | 4.89 | 62.43% |
The games to avoid this week were the Chargers-Broncos, Bengals-Jaguars, Bucs-49ers, Titans-Steelers, and Cards-Vikings. Your safest bets? The Packers and the Giants.
Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks
1. New England over the New York Jets. "Bill Belichick is still pissed from last year. He'll swallow your soul."
2. Detroit over Chicago. "As bad as you think Kyle Orton has been, Jay Cutler has been worse."
3. Philadelphia over Buffalo. "Vick be nimble, Vick be quick, Vick jump over the Fitzpatrick."
You want some more? Huh? You want a little? Do ya? Email TJ Johnson: tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter.
