Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 5

Welcome to yet another week of Fat Pickins, our little experiment in math, the wisdom of crowds, and drunken stupors.

Here we put the weekly picks of Fat Man's finest up against a drunk, a mob, and an idiot.  We'll leave it up to you to determine the latter.

We also mix in some probability and Baxter McLove's stone-cold drunk locks of the week.  If you haven't followed McLove's locks, he's undefeated this season at 8-0.

Before we jump into last week's results and this week's games, let me say that if you wagered hard-earned money on the Broncos game today, I respect you.  At the same time, I think you are certifiably loco.  Or you've got a rich uncle named Joe Ellis.  Perhaps both.

The Broncos have a 50.06% chance to win.

In other words, no one has a clue about this game.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are Ted Bartlett, TJ Johnson, Doug Lee, and David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula for predicting winners.   Lee, Bartlett, and Singer use their brains.  So far, the brains are winning.  

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole, and Merril Hoge.  Right now, they are doing so well, it's hard to make fun of them.  Give it time.  It's a long season.

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-base Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and finally, Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, but only if he could find the time.

  Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
Week 3 11 10 12 10 12 13 13 10 13 12 13
Games 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
Success 68.75 62.50 75.00 62.50 75.00 81.25 81.25 62.50 81.25 75.00 81.25
                       
Overall 40 43 45 42 45 49 54 45 45 45 46
Games 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
Success 62.50 67.19 70.31 65.63 70.31 76.56 84.38 70.31 70.31 70.31 71.88

I won't lie.  Mike Silver is annoying me with his picks.  Someone needs to take him out.  

The Picks

AWAY  HOME  Ted TJ  Doug David  Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
PHI BUF BUF PHI BUF BUF PHI PHI PHI BUF BUF PHI PHI
KC IND IND IND KC IND IND IND KC IND IND KC IND
ARI MIN MIN MIN MIN ARI MIN MIN MIN ARI MIN MIN MIN
SEA NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG
TEN PIT PIT PIT TEN PIT TEN PIT TEN PIT PIT PIT PIT
NO CAR NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
CIN JAX CIN JAX CIN JAX CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN
OAK HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU OAK HOU HOU HOU HOU
TB SF SF SF TB SF TB TB TB TB SF SF SF
SD DEN DEN SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD
NYJ NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
GB ATL GB GB GB GB ATL GB GB GB GB GB GB
CHI DET DET DET DET CHI DET DET DET CHI DET DET DET

Kudos to Ted this week for having the guts to take the Broncos.

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY   HOME   FAVORITE   SPREAD   PROBABILITY OF WINNING
PHI BUF BUF 6.81 67.55%
KC IND IND 8.34 71.42%
ARI MIN MIN 2.39 55.42%
SEA NYG NYG 12.92 81.49%
TEN PIT PIT 2.07 54.51%
NO CAR NO 7.49 69.30%
CIN JAX CIN 1.86 53.91%
OAK HOU HOU 7.69 69.80%
TB SF SF 2.77 56.50%
SD DEN DEN 0.52 50.06%
NYJ NE NE 6.76 67.42%
GB ATL GB 8.71 72.32%
CHI DET DET 4.89 62.43%

The games to avoid this week were the Chargers-Broncos, Bengals-Jaguars, Bucs-49ers, Titans-Steelers, and Cards-Vikings.  Your safest bets?  The Packers and the Giants.  

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

1. New England over the New York Jets. "Bill Belichick is still pissed from last year.  He'll swallow your soul."

2. Detroit over Chicago.  "As bad as you think Kyle Orton has been, Jay Cutler has been worse."

3. Philadelphia over Buffalo.  "Vick be nimble, Vick be quick, Vick jump over the Fitzpatrick."


You want some more?  Huh? You want a little?  Do ya?  Email TJ Johnson: tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.  If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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