Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 4

Like a moth to the flame burned by the fire, my picks are blind; can't you feel my misfire?

That's the way picks go.

Welcome to another addition of Fat Pickins--the least-read column of the week at our humble site.

Why does it get so few hits?  

Because no one really cares who another man believes is going to win a football game--unless there are naked cheerleaders involved.

Unfortunately, I didn't have the time this week to arrange for that, so we'll make fun of Peter King's afro instead.

The Results

Ted  TJ  Doug David  Baxter  King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
Week 3 10 10 9 9 10 11 13 12 10 11 11
Games 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
% 62.50 62.50 56.25 56.25 62.50 68.75 81.25 75.00 62.50 68.75 68.75
                       
Overall 29 33 33 32 33 36 41 35 32 33 33
Games 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
% 60.42 68.75 68.75 66.67 68.75 75.00 85.42 72.92 66.67 68.75 68.75

Mike Silver is on a tear like I've never seen through three weeks.  He's built such a large margin that even if his picks crater for a three- or four-game stretch during the season, he's going to be hard to beat this year.  I've never heard of anyone picking above 70% for the year, let alone 80%, so I'm giddy with excitement to see if he can continue his success get lucky.  I'm not sure where he's getting the information to make his picks.  Perhaps the cook for the home team?

The Picks

Away Home Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
CAR CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI
BUF CIN BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF
TEN CLE TEN CLE CLE CLE TEN TEN CLE CLE TEN TEN TEN
DET DAL DET DAL DET DAL DET DET DET DET DET DAL DET
MIN KC MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN KC MIN MIN MIN MIN
WAS STL WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS STL WAS WAS WAS
SF PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI SF PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI
NO JAX NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
PIT HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU PIT HOU HOU HOU
NYG ARI NYG ARI NYG ARI NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG NYG
ATL SEA ATL ATL ATL ATL SEA ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL
DEN GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB
NE OAK NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
MIA SD SD SD SD SD MIA SD SD SD SD SD SD
NYJ BAL NYJ BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL
IND TB TB TB TB TB TB TB TB TB TB TB TB

Clearly, no one gives the Broncos a snowball's chance in hell to win today's game.  But that's also true for Kansas City and Indianapolis--wait, that's not exactly where I mean to go with this.  

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:  

Favorite Spread Probability of Winning
CHI 7.32 68.87%
BUF 2.48 55.68%
TEN 3.81 59.44%
DAL 4.12 60.30%
MIN 4.31 60.83%
WAS 8.11 70.85%
PHI 3.31 58.03%
NO 8.85 72.66%
HOU 3.78 59.35%
NYG 1.95 54.17%
ATL 3.45 58.43%
GB 12.55 80.77%
NE 3.3 58.00%
SD 4.65 61.77%
BAL 3.46 58.46%
TB 4.11 60.27%

There's good reason to leave your Broncos emotion at home this week when picking games.  The Packers have the highest probability of winning, at least according to this system.  My other system--the orange and blood arteries that run through my body--say otherwise.

Also, stay away from the Giants and Cardinals.  It's almost a coin flip.

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

1. Green Bay over Denver. "Aaron Rodgers has better facial hair--barely--than Kyle Orton."

2. Chicago over Carolina.  "Cam Newton, meet the Tampa 2.  Tampa 2, meet Cam Newton.  Any questions?"

3. New England over Oakland.  "The talk you hear about the Raiders being a playoff team?  Jive talkin'."


You want some more?  Huh? You want a little?  Do ya?  Email TJ Johnson: tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com. Or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.  Or come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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