Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 3

After two weeks of picking games, I've learned a thing or two.

Now, if I can just remember what they are, we'd be in business.

Welcome to another edition of Fat PIckins, where the guys from IAOFM put themselves up against the experts, the machines, the masses, and a guy who spent all night doing body shots in the parking lot of Sam's Club.  

This week we're adding in some more probability for your amusement along with Baxter McLove's stone-cold-drunk locks.

Let's hit this crack pipe.

The Results, Week 2:

  Ted TJ  Doug David Baxter Peter King Mike Silver Jason Cole Merril Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
WK 2 TOTALS 10 13 14 11 11 14 14 12 13 12 12
GAMES 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
PERCENTAGE 62.50% 81.25% 87.50% 68.75% 68.75% 87.50% 87.50% 75.00% 81.25% 75.00% 75.00%
                       
OVERALL 19 23 24 23 23 25 28 23 22 22 22
GAMES 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32
PERCENTAGE 59.38% 71.88% 75.00% 71.88% 71.88% 78.13% 87.50% 71.88% 68.75% 68.75% 68.75%

I have nothing good to say about the our results from last week other than that my buddy Doug Lee is holding his own quite nicely.

Peter King and Mike Silver are picking out of their minds right now.  If this continues, I'll start a conspiracy theory.

The Picks

AWAY TEAM   HOME TEAM   Ted  TJ  Doug David  Baxter King  Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
NE BUF NE NE NE NE NE NE BUF NE NE NE NE
SF CIN SF SF CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN SF CIN SF SF
MIA CLE CLE MIA CLE CLE MIA CLE CLE CLE CLE MI CLE
DEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN TEN
DET MIN DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET
HOU NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
NYG PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI
JAX CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR
NYJ OAK NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ OAK OAK OAK OAK NYJ NYJ
BAL STL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL
KC SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD
GB CHI GB GB GB CHI CHI CHI CHI GB GB GB GB
ARI SEA ARI ARI ARI ARI SEA ARI SEA ARI ARI ARI ARI
ATL TB ATL TB ATL TB TB TB TB TB TB TB ATL
PIT IND PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
WAS DAL WAS WAS WAS WAS DAL DAL DAL WAS WAS DAL DAL

Notice anyone picking Denver this week? Apparently, beating the Ravens means you're invincible.

Probability

As promised last week, I wanted to provide the probabilty of winning for the favorite in each game.  The spread from each game is based on Sagarin's Ratings, not a betting line.   

FAVORITE   SPREAD   PROBABILITY OF WINNING  
NE 5.44 63.92%
CIN 4.93 62.54%
CLE 0.14 EVEN
TEN 9.3 73.73%
MIN 1.58 53.11%
NO 5.82 64.95%
PHI 6.65 67.14%
CAR 2.23 54.97%
NYJ 6.33 66.30%
BAL 14.49 84.36%
SD 13.75 83.05%
GB 1.5 52.88%
ARI 3.14 57.55%
TB 1.37 52.50%
PIT 3.19 57.69%
DAL 6.77 67.45%

If you were going to wager money this week straight up, you would have been hard pressed to find a better bet than Baltimore or San Diego.  Both teams are over 80% to win.  The hardest games to pick?  Miami at Cleveland and Atlanta at Tampa Bay.  Both games are virtual coin flips.  Our own Denver Broncos, at least according to this system, have only a 27% chance to win the game.

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

I didn't have time to get McLove on camera for a second straight week, but he passed along his locks to me along with a few choice words.

1. San Diego over Kansas City.  "Todd Haley looks drunker than I feel."

2. Tennessee over Denver. "Cort Finnegan has an Irish-sounding name."

3. Pittsburgh over Indianapolis.  "Break a leg Kerry Collins.  No, really, I mean actually break your leg."


TJ Johnson can be reached through telegraph, ESP, Spanish interpretor, or via email: tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter if you want to see him mock "the man."  He assumes you are following It’s All Over Fat Man on Facebook and Twitter, but if not, you're a nihilist, man.

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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