After two weeks of picking games, I've learned a thing or two.
Now, if I can just remember what they are, we'd be in business.
Welcome to another edition of Fat PIckins, where the guys from IAOFM put themselves up against the experts, the machines, the masses, and a guy who spent all night doing body shots in the parking lot of Sam's Club.
This week we're adding in some more probability for your amusement along with Baxter McLove's stone-cold-drunk locks.
Let's hit this crack pipe.
The Results, Week 2:
| Ted | TJ | Doug | David | Baxter | Peter King | Mike Silver | Jason Cole | Merril Hoge | Accuscore | Pick 'Em | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WK 2 TOTALS | 10 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| GAMES | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| PERCENTAGE | 62.50% | 81.25% | 87.50% | 68.75% | 68.75% | 87.50% | 87.50% | 75.00% | 81.25% | 75.00% | 75.00% |
| OVERALL | 19 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| GAMES | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| PERCENTAGE | 59.38% | 71.88% | 75.00% | 71.88% | 71.88% | 78.13% | 87.50% | 71.88% | 68.75% | 68.75% | 68.75% |
I have nothing good to say about the our results from last week other than that my buddy Doug Lee is holding his own quite nicely.
Peter King and Mike Silver are picking out of their minds right now. If this continues, I'll start a conspiracy theory.
The Picks
| AWAY TEAM | HOME TEAM | Ted | TJ | Doug | David | Baxter | King | Silver | Cole | Hoge | Accuscore | Pick 'Em |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | BUF | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | BUF | NE | NE | NE | NE |
| SF | CIN | SF | SF | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | SF | CIN | SF | SF |
| MIA | CLE | CLE | MIA | CLE | CLE | MIA | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE | MI | CLE |
| DEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN |
| DET | MIN | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET |
| HOU | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO | NO |
| NYG | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI |
| JAX | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| NYJ | OAK | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | NYJ | NYJ |
| BAL | STL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL |
| KC | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD |
| GB | CHI | GB | GB | GB | CHI | CHI | CHI | CHI | GB | GB | GB | GB |
| ARI | SEA | ARI | ARI | ARI | ARI | SEA | ARI | SEA | ARI | ARI | ARI | ARI |
| ATL | TB | ATL | TB | ATL | TB | TB | TB | TB | TB | TB | TB | ATL |
| PIT | IND | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT |
| WAS | DAL | WAS | WAS | WAS | WAS | DAL | DAL | DAL | WAS | WAS | DAL | DAL |
Notice anyone picking Denver this week? Apparently, beating the Ravens means you're invincible.
Probability
As promised last week, I wanted to provide the probabilty of winning for the favorite in each game. The spread from each game is based on Sagarin's Ratings, not a betting line.
| FAVORITE | SPREAD | PROBABILITY OF WINNING |
|---|---|---|
| NE | 5.44 | 63.92% |
| CIN | 4.93 | 62.54% |
| CLE | 0.14 | EVEN |
| TEN | 9.3 | 73.73% |
| MIN | 1.58 | 53.11% |
| NO | 5.82 | 64.95% |
| PHI | 6.65 | 67.14% |
| CAR | 2.23 | 54.97% |
| NYJ | 6.33 | 66.30% |
| BAL | 14.49 | 84.36% |
| SD | 13.75 | 83.05% |
| GB | 1.5 | 52.88% |
| ARI | 3.14 | 57.55% |
| TB | 1.37 | 52.50% |
| PIT | 3.19 | 57.69% |
| DAL | 6.77 | 67.45% |
If you were going to wager money this week straight up, you would have been hard pressed to find a better bet than Baltimore or San Diego. Both teams are over 80% to win. The hardest games to pick? Miami at Cleveland and Atlanta at Tampa Bay. Both games are virtual coin flips. Our own Denver Broncos, at least according to this system, have only a 27% chance to win the game.
Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks
I didn't have time to get McLove on camera for a second straight week, but he passed along his locks to me along with a few choice words.
1. San Diego over Kansas City. "Todd Haley looks drunker than I feel."
2. Tennessee over Denver. "Cort Finnegan has an Irish-sounding name."
3. Pittsburgh over Indianapolis. "Break a leg Kerry Collins. No, really, I mean actually break your leg."
TJ Johnson can be reached through telegraph, ESP, Spanish interpretor, or via email: tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter if you want to see him mock "the man." He assumes you are following It’s All Over Fat Man on Facebook and Twitter, but if not, you're a nihilist, man.
