Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 14

Although the Broncos are favored today, the ratings say there's a 51% chance they lose.

What does Jeff Sagarin know that we don't?  Nothing really, it's a glitch in his model that hasn't accounted for both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte going down in recent weeks.  It's the same glitch that took weeks for the Colts to work their crappiness through the statistical system.

So look for a Broncos win.

Enjoy the games, everyone!

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are the incomparable Ted Bartlett, the idiotic TJ Johnson, the impertinent Doug Lee, and the ingenious David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed while attending bible camp.  Lee, Bartlett and Singer use the minds of mortals.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow. 

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, if he wasn't rumbling, bumbling, and stumbling drunk.

WEEK 12 Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
TOTALS 12 10 10 10 9 11 10 10 9 10 9
GAMES 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
SUCCESS % 75.00 62.50 62.50 62.50 56.25 68.75 62.50 62.50 56.25 62.50 56.25
                       
TOTAL 120 123 133 122 117 129 135 120 122 133 130
GAMES 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191
SUCCESS % 62.83 64.40 69.63 63.87 61.26 67.54 70.68 62.83 63.87 69.63 68.06

Congrats to Ted Bartlett for besting everyone this week.  I'm quite sure Ted's not through yet.

Mike Silver continues to hold it down in first place, although Doug Lee and the Monte Carlo Simulator are hot on his heels.  As much as I like my friend Doug, my mind tells me to take the Simulator over everyone.   

The Picks

AWAY  HOME  Ted  TJ  Doug  David  Baxter  King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
CLE PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
TB JAX TB TB TB JAX JAX TB TB TB JAX TB TB
NO TEN NO NO NO NO NO NO TEN NO NO NO NO
PHI MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA PHI MIA MIA MIA MIA
OAK GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB
IND BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL
ATL CAR ATL CAR ATL CAR CAR CAR ATL ATL CAR CAR ATL
MIN DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET DET
HOU CIN HOU CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN HOU CIN CIN CIN HOU
KC NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ
NE WAS NE NE NE NE WAS NE NE NE NE NE NE
CHI DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN
SF ARI SF SF SF SF ARI SF SF SF SF SF SF
BUF SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD
NYG DAL NYG DAL NYG NYG NYG NYG DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL
STL SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY  HOME  Points - Away  Points - Home  Favorite  Spread  Probability 
CLE PIT 14.14 29.67 PIT 15.53 86.09%
TB JAX 14.2 18.17 JAX 3.97 59.88%
NO TEN 27.13 24.67 NO 2.46 55.62%
PHI MIA 19.32 24.82 MIA 5.5 64.09%
OAK GB 17.09 32.74 GB 15.65 86.28%
IND BAL 7.13 31.75 BAL 24.62 95.91%
ATL CAR 22.12 19.13 ATL 2.99 57.13%
MIN DET 13.92 27.36 DET 13.44 82.48%
HOU CIN 29.32 24.07 HOU 5.25 63.41%
KC NYJ 12.14 27.06 NYJ 14.92 85.09%
NE WAS 27.13 17.04 NE 10.09 75.55%
CHI DEN 22.47 21.37 CHI 1.1 51.73%
SF ARI 28.31 18.58 SF 9.73 74.73%
BUF SD 19.01 22.3 SD 3.29 57.98%
NYG DAL 18.78 25.27 DAL 6.49 66.72%
STL SEA 7.73 19.62 SEA 11.89 79.44%

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove continues to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less.

1. New Orleans over Tennessee - "Cuz I said so."

2. Carolina over Atlanta - "Cuz Cam Newton said so."

3. Denver over Chicago - "Cuz God said so."

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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