Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 13

Quick, what's more likely?  Me winning a round of picks or Norv Turner keeping his job?

I'd say I've got better odds.  Norv has a quarterback who resides inside his own dome.  At least I tied for first this week.

Another bit of good news: the Broncos are favored against the Vikings today.  The numbers say they've got almost a 53% chance of skull busting the Norsemen.

Enjoy the games, everyone.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are the incomparable Ted Bartlett, the idiotic TJ Johnson, the impertinent Doug Lee, and the ingenious David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed while contemplating the acting skills of Hayden Christensen.  Lee, Bartlett and Singer use the minds of mortals.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow. 

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, if he wasn't rumbling, bumbling, and stumbling drunk.

WEEK 12 Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
TOTALS 9 12 12 10 10 12 12 11 11 11 12
GAMES 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
SUCCESS % 56.25 75 75 62.5 62.5 75 75 68.75 68.75 68.75 75
                       
TOTAL 108 113 123 112 108 118 125 110 113 123 121
GAMES 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175
SUCCESS % 61.71 64.57 70.29 64.00 61.71 67.43 71.43 62.86 64.57 70.29 69.14

You may tell yourself this is not my beautiful house, this is not my beautiful wife can't go on, that Mike Silver simply can't be leading the mental genius that is the IAOFM staff.

It's true, my friends.  Silver is still up by two games, even against the Monte Carlo simulator, which I've found to be damn near impossible for mortal man to conquer.  

Stay tuned.  With just a handful of games left, things should get interesting--at least to the five people that read these words every week (me, my dog, my cat, my sister, and my mom; daddy never loved me).  

The Picks

AWAY TEAM HOME TEAM Ted  TJ  Doug David  Baxter  King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick  'Em
PHI SEA SEA PHI PHI PHI SEA PHI PHI PHI SEA PHI PHI
OAK MIA MIA MIA OAK MIA MIA MIA OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK
KC CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI KC CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI
TEN BUF BUF BUF TEN BUF BUF TEN TEN TEN TEN BUF BUF
NYJ WAS NYJ WAS NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ WAS NYJ NYJ
CIN PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
CAR TB TB TB TB TB TB TB CAR CAR TB CAR TB
BAL CLE BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL
ATL HOU HOU HOU ATL HOU HOU ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL
DET NO NO NO NO NO DET NO NO NO NO NO NO
DEN MIN DEN DEN DEN MIN MIN DEN DEN DEN MIN DEN DEN
DAL ARI DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL
STL SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF
GB NYG GB GB GB GB NYG GB GB GB GB GB GB
IND NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
SD JAX SD SD SD SD JAX SD JAX JAX SD SD SD

This week only Ted and Baxter could again muster the decency almost everyone took the Broncos.  A sign of the times?  I just call it "Broncopocalypse"  Say that five times in a row while standing in the dark facing a mirror and see what happens.

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY HOME Points - Away Points - Home Favorite Spread Probability
PHI SEA 21.23 18.11 PHI 3.12 57.50%
OAK MIA 18.06 23.67 MIA 5.61 64.38%
KC CHI 9.64 27.88 CHI 18.24 89.97%
TEN BUF 21.24 22.54 BUF 1.3 52.30%
NYJ WAS 24.05 17.54 NYJ 6.51 66.77%
CIN PIT 22.64 27.46 PIT 4.82 62.24%
CAR TB 15.15 18.56 TB 3.41 58.31%
BAL CLE 28.25 17.18 BAL 11.07 77.72%
ATL HOU 22.28 31.99 HOU 9.71 74.68%
DET NO 25.69 29.63 NO 3.94 59.80%
DEN MIN 18.28 16.81 DEN 1.47 52.79%
DAL ARI 23.77 17.36 DAL 6.41 66.51%
STL SF 8.27 30.75 SF 22.48 94.36%
GB NYG 30.61 21.18 GB 9.43 74.03%
IND NE 5.64 31.83 NE 26.19 96.81%
SD JAX 17.58 19.42 JAX 1.84 53.85%

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove continues to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less.

1. Buffalo over Tennessee - "Someone stole Fitzpatrick's gold.  Today he takes it back."

2. Minnesota over Denver - "I made this pick before Adrian Peterson was out and TJ won't let me change it back.  Loser."

3. Jacksonville over San Diego - "Ted Turner is a better clock manager than Norv."

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

Weekly Picks

Recent Game Coverage

All Game Coverage