Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 12

Stop me if you've heard this one.

Doug Lee, TJ Johnson, and Mike Silver walk into a bar.

Lee and Silver walk out a little happier.  TJ just gets wasted.

Welcome to another week of our staff picks, where we're out to prove you really can screw up your picks when you use shot glasses.

This week, the numbers say the Broncos have roughly a 33% chance of winning.

The numbers are wrong; the Chargers are in meltdown.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are the incomparable Ted Bartlett, the idiotic TJ Johnson, the impertinent Doug Lee, and the ingenious David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed while watching Lee Van Cleef shoot a man in cold blood.  Lee, Bartlett and Singer use the minds of mortals.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow. 

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, if he wasn't drunk.

  Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
Week 11 11 9 10 10 9 11 11 10 10 11 10
Games 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Success % 78.57 64.29 71.43 71.43 64.29 78.57 78.57 71.43 71.43 78.57 71.43
                       
Overall 99 101 111 102 98 106 113 99 102 112 109
Games 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159
Success % 62.26 63.52 69.81 64.15 61.64 66.67 71.07 62.26 64.15 70.44 68.55

Doug Lee continues his quest to force Mike Silver into submission as Accuscore continues to show how strong with the force it really is.

The Picks

AWAY HOME Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
GB DET GB GB GB GB DET GB GB GB GB GB GB
MIA DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL MIA DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL
SF BAL SF BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL SF BAL BAL
MIN ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL
CLE CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CLE CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN CIN
TB TEN TB TEN TEN TB TEN TB TEN TB TEN TB TEN
ARI STL STL STL STL STL ARI ARI ARI STL ARI STL STL
HOU JAX HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU
BUF NYJ BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF
CAR IND IND CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR
WAS SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA
CHI OAK CHI OAK OAK CHI CHI OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK
NE PHI NE NE NE NE NE NE PHI NE PHI NE NE
DEN SD DEN SD SD SD DEN SD SD SD SD SD SD
PIT KC PIT PIT PIT PIT KC PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
NYG NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

This week only Ted and Baxter could again muster the decency to take the Broncos.

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY HOME Points - Away Team Points - Home Team Favorite Spread Probability
GB DET 28.62 27.17 GB 1.45 0.5273
MIA DAL 16.54 25.99 DAL 9.45 0.7407
SF BAL 24.57 32.82 BAL 8.25 0.7119
MIN ATL 18.3 19.85 ATL 1.55 0.5301
CLE CIN 12.98 23.63 CIN 10.65 0.7680
TB TEN 14.31 24.86 TEN 10.55 0.7658
ARI STL 13.92 11.88 ARI 2.04 0.5442
HOU JAX 24.34 16.05 HOU 8.29 0.7129
BUF NYJ 24.58 28.23 NYJ 3.65 0.5898
CAR IND 16.73 15.9 CAR 0.83 0.5094
WAS SEA 19.52 17 WAS 2.52 0.5579
CHI OAK 19.91 25.68 OAK 5.77 0.6481
NE PHI 30.27 23.08 NE 7.19 0.6853
DEN SD 16.83 23.67 SD 6.84 0.6763
PIT KC 25.38 13.79 PIT 11.59 0.7881
NYG NO 18.75 29.17 NO 10.42 0.7629

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove continues to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less. This week he utilizes the X > meme.

1. Atlanta over Cincinnati - " What's more goth, a Falcon or a Bengal?"

2. Arizona over Saint Louis - "Just go with the cooler color scheme."

3. Carolina over Indianapolis - "I don't need to explain myself."

4. Seattle over Washington - "Just because I want to see Shanny turn as red as his team's uniforms."

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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