I can save you three hours this morning.
The Broncos will win 15-14. That's a 52.07% chance.
That's what the probabilities say. What does everyone else say?
Hit the jump and find out.
Enjoy the game today, everyone.
The Results
As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are the incomparable Ted Bartlett, the idiotic TJ Johnson, the impertinent Doug Lee, and ingenious David Singer. Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed while living in a van. Lee, Bartlett and Singer use the minds of mortals.
The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow.
Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor. He'd be the most interesting man in the world, if he wasn't drunk.
| Ted | TJ | Doug | David | Baxter | King | Silver | Cole | Hoge | Accuscore | Pick 'Em | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 9 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Games | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Success % | 46.15 | 53.85 | 69.23 | 53.85 | 53.85 | 46.15 | 46.15 | 61.54 | 53.85 | 61.54 | 61.54 |
| Overall | 79 | 84 | 91 | 87 | 83 | 87 | 96 | 82 | 85 | 92 | 89 |
| Games | 129 | 129 | 129 | 129 | 129 | 129 | 129 | 129 | 129 | 129 | 129 |
| Success % | 61.24 | 65.12 | 70.54 | 67.44 | 64.34 | 67.44 | 74.42 | 63.57 | 65.89 | 71.32 | 68.99 |
Doug Lee became a legit bad ass this week, climbing into striking range of Mike Silver, who I'm convinced is cheating. Unfortunately, I have no proof. Just a bruised ego.
The Picks
| AWAY | HOME | Ted | TJ | Doug | David | Baxter | King | Silver | Cole | Hoge | Accuscore | Pick 'Em |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | SD | OAK | SD | SD | SD | SD |
| ARI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI |
| TEN | CAR | TEN | CAR | TEN | CAR | TEN | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| JAX | IND | JAX | JAX | IND | IND | IND | JAX | IND | IND | JAX | IND | JAX |
| DEN | KC | DEN | KC | KC | KC | DEN | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC |
| PIT | CIN | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | CIN | CIN | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT |
| BUF | DAL | BUF | DAL | DAL | BUF | BUF | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL |
| NO | ATL | ATL | ATL | NO | ATL | NO | NO | ATL | NO | ATL | NO | NO |
| STL | CLE | CLE | CLE | STL | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE |
| WAS | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA |
| HOU | TB | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | TB | HOU | TB | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU |
| DET | CHI | DET | CHI | DET | CHI | DET | CHI | DET | DET | CHI | CHI | CHI |
| BAL | SEA | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL |
| NYG | SF | SF | SF | SF | NYG | NYG | SF | SF | NYG | NYG | SF | SF |
| NE | NYJ | NE | NYJ | NE | NYJ | NE | NYJ | NYJ | NE | NYJ | NE | NE |
| MIN | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB |
This week only Ted and Baxter could muster the courage to take Tebow and the Broncos.
The Probability
If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:
| AWAY | HOME | Points - Away Team | Point- Home Team | Favorite | Spread | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | SD | 14.43 | 21.65 | SD | 7.22 | 68.61% |
| DET | CHI | 29.96 | 28.61 | DET | 1.35 | 52.45% |
| TEN | CAR | 16.97 | 21.1 | CAR | 4.13 | 60.33% |
| JAX | IND | 15.28 | 8.73 | JAX | 6.55 | 66.88% |
| DEN | KC | 15.1 | 13.88 | DEN | 1.22 | 52.07% |
| PIT | CIN | 22.73 | 26.27 | CIN | 3.54 | 58.68% |
| BUF | DAL | 25.62 | 25.05 | BUF | .57 | 50.20% |
| NO | ATL | 26.44 | 26.22 | PICK EM | .22 | PICK EM |
| STL | CLE | 9.39 | 15.01 | CLE | 5.62 | 64.41% |
| WAS | MIA | 15.54 | 18.91 | MIA | 3.37 | 58.20% |
| HOU | TB | 25.95 | 20.26 | HOU | 5.69 | 64.60% |
| ARI | PHI | 14.01 | 27.24 | PHI | 13.23 | 82.08% |
| BAL | SEA | 27.65 | 15.65 | BAL | 12 | 79.67% |
| NYG | SF | 19.6 | 32.71 | SF | 13.11 | 81.85% |
| NE | NYJ | 24.73 | 28.97 | NYJ | 4.24 | 60.64% |
| MIN | GB | 17.67 | 33 | GB | 15.33 | 85.77% |
The locks (greater than 75% probability) this week look to be the Eagles, Ravens, Packers, and 49ers. The teams with the slimmest of margins (55% or smaller) were the Bears, Broncos, Bill, and Saints.
Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks
McLove continues to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less. This week he utilizes the X > meme.
1. Detroit over Chicago - "Suh > Cutler"
2. Denver over Kansas City - "Bailey > Bowe"
3. Buffalo over Dallas - "Fitz > Romo"
4. New Orleans over Atlanta - "Cool Brees > Matty Ice"
Get your freak on. Follow TJ on Facebook and Twitter. If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter. TJ's email is tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com
