Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 10

I can save you three hours this morning.

The Broncos will win 15-14.  That's a 52.07% chance.

That's what the probabilities say.  What does everyone else say?

Hit the jump and find out.  

Enjoy the game today, everyone.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are the incomparable Ted Bartlett, the idiotic TJ Johnson, the impertinent Doug Lee, and ingenious David Singer.  Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed while living in a van.  Lee, Bartlett and Singer use the minds of mortals.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow. 

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor.  He'd be the most interesting man in the world, if he wasn't drunk.

  Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
Week 9 6 7 9 7 7 6 6 8 7 8 8
Games 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Success % 46.15 53.85 69.23 53.85 53.85 46.15 46.15 61.54 53.85 61.54 61.54
                       
Overall 79 84 91 87 83 87 96 82 85 92 89
Games 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 129
Success % 61.24 65.12 70.54 67.44 64.34 67.44 74.42 63.57 65.89 71.32 68.99

Doug Lee became a legit bad ass this week, climbing into striking range of Mike Silver, who I'm convinced is cheating.  Unfortunately, I have no proof.  Just a bruised ego.

The Picks

AWAY HOME Ted TJ Doug David Baxter King Silver Cole Hoge Accuscore Pick 'Em
OAK SD SD SD SD SD SD SD OAK SD SD SD SD
ARI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI PHI
TEN CAR TEN CAR TEN CAR TEN CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR CAR
JAX IND JAX JAX IND IND IND JAX IND IND JAX IND JAX
DEN KC DEN KC KC KC DEN KC KC KC KC KC KC
PIT CIN PIT PIT PIT PIT CIN CIN PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
BUF DAL BUF DAL DAL BUF BUF DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL
NO ATL ATL ATL NO ATL NO NO ATL NO ATL NO NO
STL CLE CLE CLE STL CLE CLE CLE CLE CLE CLE CLE CLE
WAS MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA
HOU TB HOU HOU HOU HOU TB HOU TB HOU HOU HOU HOU
DET CHI DET CHI DET CHI DET CHI DET DET CHI CHI CHI
BAL SEA BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL
NYG SF SF SF SF NYG NYG SF SF NYG NYG SF SF
NE NYJ NE NYJ NE NYJ NE NYJ NYJ NE NYJ NE NE
MIN GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB

This week only Ted and Baxter could muster the courage to take Tebow and the Broncos.

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY HOME Points - Away Team Point- Home Team Favorite Spread Prob.
OAK SD 14.43 21.65 SD 7.22 68.61%
DET CHI 29.96 28.61 DET 1.35 52.45%
TEN CAR 16.97 21.1 CAR 4.13 60.33%
JAX IND 15.28 8.73 JAX 6.55 66.88%
DEN KC 15.1 13.88 DEN 1.22 52.07%
PIT CIN 22.73 26.27 CIN 3.54 58.68%
BUF DAL 25.62 25.05 BUF .57 50.20%
NO ATL 26.44 26.22 PICK EM .22 PICK EM
STL CLE 9.39 15.01 CLE 5.62 64.41%
WAS MIA 15.54 18.91 MIA 3.37 58.20%
HOU TB 25.95 20.26 HOU 5.69 64.60%
ARI PHI 14.01 27.24 PHI 13.23 82.08%
BAL SEA 27.65 15.65 BAL 12 79.67%
NYG SF 19.6 32.71 SF 13.11 81.85%
NE NYJ 24.73 28.97 NYJ 4.24 60.64%
MIN GB 17.67 33 GB 15.33 85.77%

The locks (greater than 75% probability) this week look to be the Eagles, Ravens, Packers, and 49ers.  The teams with the slimmest of margins (55% or smaller) were the Bears, Broncos, Bill, and Saints.    

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove continues to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less. This week he utilizes the X > meme.

1. Detroit over Chicago - "Suh > Cutler"

2. Denver over Kansas City - "Bailey > Bowe"

3. Buffalo over Dallas - "Fitz > Romo"

4. New Orleans over Atlanta - "Cool Brees > Matty Ice"


Get your freak on.  Follow TJ on Facebook and Twitter.  If you prefer, come get some sugar at It’s All Over, Fat Man! on Facebook and Twitter.   TJ's email is tjthedudejohnson@gmail.com

I’m glad we had this talk.  Now, vaya con Dios, Brah.

Agree, disagree, just like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter so I can quit my day job.

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