2013 IAOFM Rational Actor Mock Draft - AFC Analysis

AFC North

Cleveland Browns

DT Sharrif Floyd (6), QB Tyler Bray (68), LB Kiko Alonso (104)

The Browns strengthen their defense with the selections of Floyd and Alonso.  I think Floyd could pair with Phil Taylor and really make them difficult to run against inside.  I also see Floyd as giving them some interior pass rush that they haven't really had in a long time.

Bray is talented, and I think he's an excellent fit for Norv Turner's downfield throwing offense.  He just needs to grow up, and learn to be a professional.  The word out of Knoxville is that he was an entitled glory-boy diva there.

Pittsburgh Steelers

CB Dee Milliner (11), LB Alec Ogletree (48), RB Kenjon Barner (115)

The Steelers really shore up their quietly declining defense here with the selections of Milliner and Ogletree.  Milliner is actually pretty similar to Ike Taylor, and Ogletree is a big-time talent who doesn't always play like one.

The selection of Barner gives the Steelers a home run threat out of their backfield rotation.

Cincinnati Bengals

OT Menelik Watson (21), WR Cordarrelle Patterson (41), TE Jordan Reed (53), CB Sanders Commings (84), DE Trevardo Williams (118)

Watson is drafted to replace Andre Smith, and he may be able to eventually switch places with LT Andrew Whitworth, as Whitworth presumably slows down some, and Watson hits his prime.

Patterson and Reed are weapons who could help take the Bengals offense to a new level.

Commings is a depth guy at CB, and Williams has some pass rush specialist attributes.

Baltimore Ravens

DT Johnathan Hankins (32), OT Xavier Nixon (62), WR Stedman Bailey (94), CB B.W. Webb (129), DT Akeem Spence (130)

Hankins and Spence add some quality beef to the defensive line, which hasn't really been up to its usual standards lately.

Nixon has starter ability as a LT if he'd ever take to coaching.  The word out of the Florida program is that he's really difficult to teach.

Bailey will be a quality NFL possession receiver, and Webb is a nice nickelback prospect.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

OLB Jarvis Jones (2), QB Ryan Nassib (33), OLB Brandon Jenkins (64), DT Bennie Logan (98)

Jones and Jenkins will be expected to be Gus Bradley's southeastern version of Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin.  I view Jones as the best football player in this draft class, and the fact that he's a Georgia Bulldog will make him easy to sell to a Jacksonville fanbase that has a lot of red-wearing mouth-breathers in it (Go Gators!).

Nassib is a solid QB prospect who may be able to beat out Blaine Gabbert.  It's entirely appropriate to double up on relatively high draft picks at the QB position, given the low salaries for rookies in the current CBA.

Logan is a hard-working and tough rotational DT.

Tennesee Titans

OG Jonathan Cooper (10), WR Keenan Allen (40), WR Marquise Goodwin (70), OLB Sio Moore (97), FS Robert Lester (107)

Cooper has a chance to be a star quickly, and he can combine with free agent signing Andy Levitre to vastly improve the interior of the Titans offensive line.

Allen is a starting outside receiver, and Goodwin is a speedster who may just have some Mike Wallace traits to him.

Moore can be a starting OLB in the NFL, and Lester will be a good team guy who probably plays in sub packages and on special teams.

Indianapolis Colts

WR Justin Hunter (24), OG Dallas Thomas (86), OT Chris Faulk (121)

Hunter is the kind of vertical threat that Andrew Luck needs to bring his game to the next level.  I think he's the most talented WR in this class.

Thomas could start as a rookie for the Colts at one of either of the guard spots, and Faulk projects as a solid swing tackle.  

Houston Texans

CB D.J. Hayden (27), WR Terrance Williams (57), OT Brennan Williams (89), DT Brandon Williams (95), TE Matt Furstenburg (124)

I'm not enamored with Kareem Jackson as an outside CB, and I never have been.  Picking Hayden will eventually bump Jackson inside to play the slot, and the Texans will probably be good on the back end with those two and Johnathan Joseph.

I have the Texans getting excited about three guys named Williams - Terrance could quickly become a starting WR, Brennan could do the same at RT, and Brandon projects as a rotational defensive lineman.

Furstenburg is a talented move TE who can replace a lot of what James Casey previously did for the Texans.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

OT Luke Joeckel (8), QB E.J. Manuel (37), OG Brian Winters (71), LB Jonathan Bostic (93), RB Stepfan Taylor (105)

The Bills can really help themselves with this group.  Joeckel bumps Cordy Glenn to RT, which improves two positions.  Winters replaces Andy Levitre at LG, and I think Winters can eventually be as good as Levitre was.

Manuel is a big, strong QB who can throw the ball through the winds in Buffalo.  It remains to be seen if his mental game can develop as well as is needed, but with talented players, you give that a pretty strong coaching try.

Bostic is a starting-caliber MLB, and Buffalo needs to replace two or three LBs this season; that's why I had them trade into the third round to get him.

Taylor will be a solid utility back behind C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.

New York Jets

DE Ezekiel Ansah (9), CB Desmond Trufant (13), WR DeAndre Hopkins (39), ILB Vince Williams (72), OLB Zaviar Gooden (106)

This is the kind of class you draft when you have holes everywhere.  Ansah is another talented DE to pair with last year's first-rounder Quinton Coples.

Trufant is an NFL-ready CB, who can likely move into the spot vacated by Darrelle Revis right away.

Hopkins will instantly be the best receiver on the team, and the only one who's really capable of running a full route tree.

Williams and Gooden will compete early for playing time at LB.

Miami Dolphins

CB Xavier Rhodes (12), OT Terron Armstead (42), OG Larry Warford (54), TE Travis Kelce (77), DE Alex Okafor (84), QB Landry Jones (111)

Rhodes will make a nice replacement for Sean Smith, and he fits the press-man scheme that Kevin Coyle wants to play.

Armstead has elite athleticism for the LT position, and Warford profiles as a starting guard early on.

Kelce becomes the best inline TE on the team, and combines with Dustin Keller to make for an interesting pair.

Okafor can play as a rotational DE, particularly if Jared Odrick kicks inside.

Jones is a more interesting developmental QB than either Matt Moore or Pat Devlin.

New England Patriots

DB David Amerson (29), DE Sam Montgomery (59), OL Barrett Jones (91)

A deep Patriots team drafts for versatility and depth.  Amerson has outstanding ball skills, and he can play either corner or safety, or both.  On this team, I see him as a corner, since they already made Devin McCourty a matchup safety.

Montgomery can compete for snaps at closed-side DE, particularly as Rob Ninkovich is entering the last year of his contract.

Jones profiles as a valuable backup who can play all offensive line positions in a pinch.  He's definitely a Patriots kind of guy.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

DT Star Lotulelei (1), DE Margus Hunt (63), QB Matt Scott (96), CB Darius Slay (99)

The Chiefs have invested a lot of draft resources in their defensive line over the last few years with not much to show for it.  Lotulelei projects to be a dominant player up front, who can win with both power and quickness.  He can play anywhere across a front, and he's scheme indifferent.  He'll fit in with Tyson Jackson and Dontari Poe to potentially form a nice base defensive line.

Hunt is a guy who can eventually be a starting DE, but at least for now, could be a situational pass rusher.

Scott is a developmental QB prospect, and Slay can be a solid sub package CB.

Oakland Raiders

DE Barkevious Mingo (3), DT Kawann Short (66), S TJ McDonald (100)

The Raiders have to start somewhere in building their team, and this draft class dictates that that somewhere is the defensive line (In general, that's a good place to start).

Mingo will give them a potential cornerstone player as an edge rusher, and will allow them to count on Andre Carter and Jason Hunter to a more appropriate extent than it seems like they're counting on them now.

Short is a starting-caliber DT who can play early.

McDonald is a solid body for safety depth and special teams.

San Diego Chargers

OG Chance Warmack (17), S D.J. Swearinger (45), C Khaled Holmes (79), WR Da'Rick Rogers (110), acquired OT Rodger Saffold via trade

This class is all about the offensive line.  Warmack will be an instant starter, and Saffold can plug into LT, so the Chargers can avoid the King Dunlap experience.  Holmes can eventually replace Nick Hardwick at center.

Swearinger is a traditional box safety, but he has more range than a lot them do; he can start next to Eric Weddle.

Rogers is talented but immature; he's a worthy risk in the fourth round.

Denver Broncos

DE Damontre Moore (35), DB Johnthan Banks (58), DT Jesse Williams (90), WR Markus Wheaton (101), K Dustin Hopkins (125)

Moore didn't test that great, but he can play football when you put on the film.  He's fallen because there are some rumblings that he isn't the greatest kid, but I think that the presence of his old teammate Von Miller could help keep him focused, and the Broncos are a pretty professional and stable organization.

Banks is the matchup safety I've been looking for; 4.6 is slow for a CB, but for a guy who's asked to cover TEs man-to-man, it's just fine.

Williams is a little overrated by draftniks, but he's going to be a good, solid inside battler.

Wheaton can take over the Matt Willis role as the fourth WR and a contributor on special teams.  Eventually, he could force his way into significant playing time.

Drafting the best kicker with your second fourth-round pick is a luxury best enjoyed by talented teams like the Broncos.

1.  I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2.  I get my information from my eyes.

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