Weekly Picks

Comparing picks generated by a Random Number Generator and an Animal (Jesus Quintana) against a plethora of NFL experts.

Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 4

Like a moth to the flame burned by the fire, my picks are blind; can't you feel my misfire?

That's the way picks go.

Welcome to another addition of Fat Pickins--the least-read column of the week at our humble site.

Why does it get so few hits?  

Because no one really cares who another man believes is going to win a football game--unless there are naked cheerleaders involved.

Unfortunately, I didn't have the time this week to arrange for that, so we'll make fun of Peter King's afro instead.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 4"

Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 3

After two weeks of picking games, I've learned a thing or two.

Now, if I can just remember what they are, we'd be in business.

Welcome to another edition of Fat PIckins, where the guys from IAOFM put themselves up against the experts, the machines, the masses, and a guy who spent all night doing body shots in the parking lot of Sam's Club.  

This week we're adding in some more probability for your amusement along with Baxter McLove's stone-cold-drunk locks.

Let's hit this crack pipe.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 3"

Fat Pickins - Week 2

We have met the enemy and he is Mike Silver.

The Berkeley nerd picked fourteen out of sixteen games correctly last week, proving--at least for one week--he's not a fourth-string journalist.

Can he repeat the feat in Week 2?

I'm not saying he won't, but if he does, I'll get very angry.

Don't make me angry, Mike Silver.  You don't want to see me when I'm angry.  

Let's review the results from last week and give you our "expert" picks for Week 2.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins - Week 2"

Fat Pickins - Week 1

On most Thursdays, I put out a Mail Revue, a Playbook Abides, or a Fat Camp column.  But this isn't most Thursdays.  I've been traveling all week, and the NFL season actually starts tonight.  So today we'll simply introduce this year's picks segment.   Under normal circumstances, I'll be running this on Saturdays, along with a detailed scouting report on the week's opponent. So this Saturday, expect to see a scouting report that you're not going to find at other Broncos-centric websites.  In short, expect more and expect better.

With that out of the way, let's get right to it.  Last year, I called this segment The Jesus, The Generator, and the Experts.  That's because I wanted to show just how silly most NFL experts were by letting my cat (the feline kind - not the friend/buddy kind), Jesus Quintana and a random number generator (RNG) pick NFL games.  We weren't disappointed.  As expected, the RNG - armed with the notion that the home team wins about 57% of the time on average - ended up correctly picking about 57% of the games correctly.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins - Week 1"

The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Divisional Round

Just spoke to Quintana as he was leaving his cat box. He told me he's amped up over the Fox hiring. He feels that finally, coaches with cool animal names have broken through that glass ceiling. Now, on to this weekend's picks:

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS      Random Number Generator       Jesus Quintana    TJ "The Dude" Johnson    Doug Lee   
VISTOR HOME Pick Pick Team Team
BAL PIT PIT BAL PIT PIT
GB ATL ATL ATL GB GB
SEA CHI CHI SEA SEA CHI
NYJ NE NE NE NE NE

Continue reading "The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Divisional Round"

The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Playoff edition

We thought we'd keep our experts' picks running through the playoffs.

So here you go:

WILD CARD WEEKEND   Random Number Generator Jesus Quintana TJ "The Dude" Johnson Doug Lee
VISTOR HOME Pick Pick Team Team
NO SEA SEA SEA NO NO
NYJ IND IND IND IND NYJ
BAL KC KC BAL BAL BAL
GB PHI PHI GB PHI GB

Continue reading "The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Playoff edition"

The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Week 17

Our weekly picks have finally come to an end.

But has Peter King reached the end of his rope?

This little jaunt into weekly oblivion started as a statistical experiment (and a way for us to fill space on our blog).  Could a random number generator (RNG) beat a group of so-called experts at picking football games?  We threw in some picks from Doug and I just for fun.  Then we added my cat Jesus Quintana (cat meaning cat, not bowling partner) into the mix for an added dose of humor.

Next week, I'll summarize some of the statistical lessons we've (probably) learned, but until then you'll suffer through another week of Quintana's upset picks and Peter King's smugness.

Next year, we plan on making this more user friendly and letting Fat Man's users participate.  That means there will be a weekly and ongoing tally of how smart this community of Broncos fans really are.  Consider it a sort of wisdom of the Fat Man crowd if you'd like.  I have no doubt it will tie the room together.

Let's see how things went down last week. 

Continue reading "The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Week 17"

The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Week 16

What's worse than fruitcake on Christmas?

Having that fruitcake Peter King this close to you this late in the season.

As usual, we stack up a Random Number Generator (RNG) and my cat (Jesus Quintana) against some experts and the staff. 

At the end of the year, we'll have some statistical lessons for everyone.  Until that time,  there's two more weeks of trying to finish ahead of King.

Let's see how things went last week.

Continue reading "The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Week 16"

The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Week 15

Tim Tebow is starting.

Quintana just put on his #15 Jersey.

Let's roll.

You know the drill.  Peter King, a random number generator, and Tim Tebow all are stranded on a desert island.  These picks and Tebow are the only survivors.

Let's see how everyone did this week:

Continue reading "The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Week 15"

The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Week 14

What´s worse than getting 86´d by Pat Bowlen Joe Ellis?

Getting caught by Peter King.

I'm sparing you the intro this week.  You know the drill.  A cat, A random number generator, and Peter King walk into a bar.  These picks are the result.

So let's get right to it and see how everyone did.

Continue reading "The Jesus, The Generator and the Experts - Week 14"