Weekly Picks

Comparing picks generated by a Random Number Generator and an Animal (Jesus Quintana) against a plethora of NFL experts.

Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 17

Good news, the Broncos are 66.38% to win this game.

Enjoy the games, everyone!

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Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 13

Quick, what's more likely?  Me winning a round of picks or Norv Turner keeping his job?

I'd say I've got better odds.  Norv has a quarterback who resides inside his own dome.  At least I tied for first this week.

Another bit of good news: the Broncos are favored against the Vikings today.  The numbers say they've got almost a 53% chance of skull busting the Norsemen.

Enjoy the games, everyone.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 13"

Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 12

Stop me if you've heard this one.

Doug Lee, TJ Johnson, and Mike Silver walk into a bar.

Lee and Silver walk out a little happier.  TJ just gets wasted.

Welcome to another week of our staff picks, where we're out to prove you really can screw up your picks when you use shot glasses.

This week, the numbers say the Broncos have roughly a 33% chance of winning.

The numbers are wrong; the Chargers are in meltdown.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 12"

Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 11

I'll disperse with the trivialities today and just say that Doug Lee is within one game of Mike Silver.

Will I see an elephant fly?

No way.  Doug spends a grand total of three minutes per week picking these games.  If only my brain worked so fast.

You may not like his take on Tebow, but all he does is win (pick 'em) games.

I apologize in advance for not getting to the probability and Baxter's locks.  There are several reasons for this.  Some could be true.  First, I can't get in touch with Baxter this morning.  When I left him last night he was dancing on top of a table and mumbling something about goldfish.  Second, I really wanted to bask in the glory of Doug Lee.  Third, now that the Broncos' game is over for the week, I don't care so much about the probabilities of the other games.  And finally, I woke up about thirty minutes ago and didn't have time.

Enjoy the games today, everyone.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 11"

Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 10

I can save you three hours this morning.

The Broncos will win 15-14.  That's a 52.07% chance.

That's what the probabilities say.  What does everyone else say?

Hit the jump and find out.  

Enjoy the game today, everyone.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 10"

Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 9

The picks may come and go, but the Tim Tebow story remains.

Tebow and the Broncos have about a 33% chance of winning today.

That's a whole heck of a lot higher than anyone in the Black Hole being sober by gametime.

Enjoy the game, and if you happen to be a Broncos fan attending the game today in Oakland, wear your bulletproof Tebow jersey.

And watch out for grown men giving good drag queens a bad name.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 9"

Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 8

With ten minutes remaining before the first game today, here are the picks.

Sorry it took so long to get these out.

I was busy watching college football into the wee hours of the night.

Today's games feature a lot of big favorites.  That means we should see a lot of blowouts, right?

I highly doubt it.

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Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 7

Before I get to this week's picks, let me give you a quick scouting report on the Miami Dolphins.

They try to run.  When that doesn't work, Brandon Marshall tries to push off up the field to get separation.  Call it the bully route.  

It's not been working that well this year.  In fact, it's been a bit clumsy.

Gee, where have I heard that before?

Look for the trend to continue.

Now, on to the picks.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 7"

Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 6

The good news?  The Broncos can't lose this week.

The bad news?  They can't win either.

A bye week in the NFL is like going to jail in the game Monopoly.  You have to sit there and watch the rest of your family roll the dice, move their pieces (why the hell did everyone want to play the horse and rider?), and laugh, while you have to wait your turn.

At least in Monopoly you can roll doubles to get out and play again.  During the NFL bye week, you're just stuck.

Welcome to another edition of Fat Pickins, where we climb the stairway to crazy.  Here you get two things--our picks and probability.

Ask me no questions, and I'll tell you no lies.

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Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 5

Welcome to yet another week of Fat Pickins, our little experiment in math, the wisdom of crowds, and drunken stupors.

Here we put the weekly picks of Fat Man's finest up against a drunk, a mob, and an idiot.  We'll leave it up to you to determine the latter.

We also mix in some probability and Baxter McLove's stone-cold drunk locks of the week.  If you haven't followed McLove's locks, he's undefeated this season at 8-0.

Before we jump into last week's results and this week's games, let me say that if you wagered hard-earned money on the Broncos game today, I respect you.  At the same time, I think you are certifiably loco.  Or you've got a rich uncle named Joe Ellis.  Perhaps both.

The Broncos have a 50.06% chance to win.

In other words, no one has a clue about this game.

Continue reading "Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 5"