Good Morning, Broncos fans! Brandon Lloyd got a much-deserved nod yesterday from his peers with his first Pro Bowl selection. His conference call (linked below) with reporters was a gem, and he continues to show himself to be a humble and well-spoken guy.
Unfortunately, Champ Bailey did not make the Pro Bowl, which would have been his 10th selection. I should correct myself for suggesting last night that he was not snubbed in getting beaten out by Devin McCourty for the roster. It was one of those things I thought was a bit iffy when I typed it, and after more thought it was pretty dumb. McCourty getting chosen over Champ is clearly about stats, more specifically the stats that the fans see (interceptions) and what shows up on the weekly highlights. This is the same manner in which our old friends Deltha O'Neal and Tory James made it to the Pro Bowl, and frankly it sucks. I'm not equating McCourty's play with that of those two overrated guys, but his selection over Champ is an example of what's wrong with the Pro Bowl.
Usually the problem is guys getting in on their name and popularity; this time it was an unimportant statistic. Quite simply, interceptions are not the measure of a great cornerback. In fact, this season Nnamdi Asomugha has zero INTs, Darrelle Revis has zero INTs, and Champ has just two. But please don't use this as fodder for the "Stats are Meaningless" argument. Stats can tell you almost everything you need to know - it's a matter of finding the right ones...
Good Morning, Broncos fans! Eric Studesville confirmed the worst-kept secret in Denver yesterday - that Tim Tebow will start the season finale against San Diego. Again, this points to some disrespectful handling of Kyle Orton, who deserved better than being left to make that same announcement himself last week.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! Denver won yesterday for just the fourth time all year, breaking a five-game losing streak as Tim Tebow earned his first NFL victory, fourth-quarter comeback and 300-yard game. The Broncos overcame a 17-0 halftime deficit and trailed the Texans 23-10 as the final period began - Denver dominated the fourth quarter as Tebow threw for one touchdown (a 23-yard catch-and-run by Correll Buckhalter) and ran the game winner in from six yards out with 3:11 remaining. Tebow finished the game with 308 yards passing and 27 yards rushing to go with the two touchdowns and an ugly first-drive interception in the Texans' endzone. Over the course of his first two NFL starts, Tebow has put forth an impressive 93.4 QB rating with an eye-popping 9.9 YPA while generating an average of 8.7 yards of adjusted total offense per chance*, along with a TD on 6.1% of his chances. By comparison, previous starting QB Kyle Orton has averaged 7.2 YPA and 6.2 yards adjusted total offense, and a 3.6 TD% passing and rushing over the past two seasons.
Small sample? Yes, of course. Stats we'd never have considered pre-Tebow? Absolutely. But that's the point - Tebow brings a different dimension to the Denver offense via his ability to make plays on the run. So, is it more fair to compare Tebow to Jay Cutler, Orton's predecessor? Cutler averaged 7.4 YPA, 6.2 yards adjusted total offense and scored a TD 4.1% of the time as Denver's starting QB - numbers very much like those Orton has produced as a Bronco, and also significantly less productive than Tebow. Again, small sample. But these are the numbers that matter, if you're in the business of trying to win football games.
* I've taken PFR's Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (which factors in TDs and INTs) and also added in rushing stats. Chance = Pass Attempts + Sacks + Rush Attempts
Good Morning, Broncos fans! With Arizona's last-second win last night, the Broncos are now assured a top-3 pick if they should win exactly one of their remaining games. If they lose both games, Denver will get a top-2 pick, and if Carolina also beats Atlanta next week, the Broncos would pick 1st overall. Two wins by Denver would bring several other teams into the equation and could drop the Broncos to as low as the 8th pick.
In other words, it would be disastrous for the Broncos to win their last two games. They will have lost 11 games, gotten their head coach fired, enraged fans and become the butt of jokes nationwide, only to be picking perhaps 8th overall. This scenario would likely preclude Denver from the ability to select one of the top defensive linemen or cornerbacks who are expected to enter the draft (without trading up to do so).
Now, obviously it is very difficult to root against one's own team. In fact, I find it pretty much impossible myself. But our current situation allows us to not get too upset when a play goes badly, ie. a Bronco drops a pass or the Texans score, get mad for a second and then think "Top-2 Pick". Really, we need it. Whether it's for the chance to draft Andrew Luck or trade him for a bounty of picks, or to take someone like Da'Quan Bowers, Nick Fairley, Patrick Peterson, or Prince Amukamara, going 1-1 or 0-2 between today and next Sunday is crucial. As an aside, how neat would it be to have a pair of starting cornerbacks next season named Champ and Prince? So, of course - root for the Broncos to win and for Tim Tebow to show progress, but if/when they lose, don't sweat it. We'll be right where we want to be...
Good Morning, Broncos fans! To those of you who are celebrating today, we here at IAOFM would like to wish you a Merry Christmas! Enjoy the day, eat well, be safe and please don't drive drunk. As always, thanks so much to all of you for being here - we appreciate your readership.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! It's like clockwork, folks. Another day, another player hits IR. Another sunrise, another glaring bit of journalistic bumbling from the DP. Yesterday, Mike Klis wrote that Kyle Orton is only owed $2.879 million in guarantees in 2011 based upon the one-year extension he signed with Denver in August. Yet, Klis originally reported the contract extension as providing Orton with $5.5 million in guarantees for 2011. The same info was given on the DP Blog at the time.
Also yesterday, Jeff Legwold wrote that "original reports" put Orton's guarantees as being worth $8.1 million between the 2010 and 2011 seasons. He says that a review of NFLPA documents says that Orton is only due $2.879 million next year. No correction, no admission that the Denver Post was reporting incorrect information from their ironclad sources. Sure - this is of a much smaller magnitude, but it's otherwise the same as
agent mouthpieces Jason La Canfora reporting the signing bonus attached to Donovan McNabb's contract as being worth $40 million. If we can't depend upon beat reporters to get simple facts like this straight, or own up to them when they've been hoodwinked by self-serving player agents, then exactly what service are they providing to us, their readers?
Good Morning, Broncos fans! In his column yesterday, TJ wrote that he thought perhaps Tim Tebow could thrive in a WCO ala Steve Young. Meanwhile, Mike Lombardi considered the Broncos' situation with Tebow and suggested that Denver actually needs to stick with an offensive-oriented HC to continue the young QB's development. His choice? Why, none other than Gary Kubiak - although Lombardi says the zone-blocking offense has become somewhat obsolete with its smaller linemen, he thinks it could be an ideal scheme for Tebow to operate within.
Knowshon Moreno and Matt Prater did not practice yesterday, while Brian Dawkins, Demaryius Thomas and Darcel McBath returned in limited fashion. As mentioned yesterday, Spencer Larsen was placed on IR and replaced on the active roster by Stanley Daniels. To fill Daniels' spot on the practice squad, Denver signed LB Dominic Douglas.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! While you're finishing your shopping, I'm getting all worked up about stupid media narratives. The latest? That the Broncos only have six draft picks in 2011, because
Joseph Stalin Josh McDaniels is a terrible person and an even worse handler of draft choices. Plus, he wasted all those picks on the guy that everyone now thinks is going to save humanity the franchise from what was a few days ago impending doom. Let's take a quick peek at the 2010 Draft, shall we? Denver entered the selection party with 7 choices, including one 1st-rounder, two 2nd-rounders, a third and so on. Thanks to Brian Xanders and McDaniels' deft movement down and up the draft board (really, it was brilliant - don't let anyone tell you otherwise), Denver ended up with two 1st-rounders, a 2nd-rounder and two 3rd-rounders without giving up any other choices.
So, the Broncos started out with four choices in the first three rounds, and they ended up with five choices. According to the draft chart that Jimmy Johnson
pulled out of his ass everyone goes by, the Broncos went from 2,360 points down to 2,295 points, a slippage of 65 points (one mid-4th-rounder). Football Outsiders' draft chart, which uses real actual data to assign values to each pick, says the Broncos went from 6,565 points up to 7,560 points, a gain of 995 points (a high 3rd-rounder). Call me crazy, but ending up with two 1st-rounders and one 2nd-rounder is a heck of a lot better than the one 1st-rounder and two 2nd-rounders Denver had started out with. Oh, and and extra third-rounder to boot? Why yes, thank you much.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! Eric Studesville announced yesterday that Tim Tebow will start again on Sunday at home against Houston. Denver also claimed CB Chevis Jackson from New England; apparently there's still a hoarder of ex-Patriots in the Broncos' midst - he must be found and fired! LB Kevin Alexander was released by the team, not long after being arrested on charges of domestic violence - according to the team, pure coincidence.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! Why so happy? Yesterday went about as well as could be expected for the Broncos - Tim Tebow performed well enough to give hope that he is indeed the future, the Broncos' draft position was solidified into a likely top-3 pick, and the defense reminded us all of what the Broncos need with such a choice.
In terms of draft position, the combination of Denver's loss to Jokeland and victories by Carolina, Cincinnati, Detroit and Buffalo means that if the Broncos lose to both Houston and San Diego, they will gain either the first or second pick in April's draft. If Denver loses both games and Carolina were to win one of its last two games (unlikely), Denver would then gain the top spot overall. Then again, Atlanta would wrap up home field advantage in the NFC with a victory next week and would then not need to beat Carolina in Week 17. Should Denver go 1-1 and everyone else 0-2, the Broncos would pick 4th overall. if the Broncos were to win both games, suddenly a whole bunch of other teams enter the equation. Ideally? Denver ends up with the first overall pick, Andrew Luck declares, auction ensues, and the Broncos end up with a bounty of picks ala what the Dolts did when they gave up the right to trade Michael Vick in 2001 and swapped Eli Manning for Philip Rivers in 2004. Then, it's defense, defense, defense...