Good Morning, Broncos fans! Excellent piece from Brian Burke yesterday relating to who else but Tim Tebow, and it recalls a conversation I often have with Ted. Let's just say I'm a bigger fan of stats than is Ted. As a guy who relies upon what he sees with his eyes to inform his opinions of football players (or anything else, for that matter), Ted thinks stats do not or will not capture the essence of someone like Tebow, who indisputably brings some terrific, immeasurable qualities to a football team and onto the field.
I disagree; my position is simply that the conventional stats folks tend to rely upon (ie. gross yardage, TD passes, interceptions) are not the ones that ever paint the most accurate picture anyway, so I don't care how Tebow ranks in those categories (rate stats like ANY/A, TD%, INT% are much more telling). In other words, if Tebow does become a good or great NFL player, we already have tools to accurately measure that via stats - this will not turn into a case of Tebow winning lots of games for the Broncos at QB while accumulating some crappy stats. If/when Tebow becomes a sustained NFL success, we'll know it with our eyes, and the stats that really matter will show that. (Sustained, because flukey things like a QB playing like crap but winning can happen in any single game, or even be strung into a good season or two. See Young, Vince.)
Good Morning, Broncos fans! It's Monday, which means it's time for another wet towel to dampen all the excitement. I know, a win is a win, right? Especially when you come back from down 15-0 with 5:23 left on the clock to emerge 18-15 in OT (box score), and especially when your QB is making his fourth NFL start, right? Obviously, the ending was exhilirating, improbable and memorable, and if one had flipped on the game at that point they'd think Tim Tebow was an excellent NFL QB - and for those 5:23 of game time, that would be pretty accurate.
But here's the thing - we can't just judge Tim on those two drives. We all witnessed the first 54:37 of the game and Denver's prior 11 possessions, two of which went for more than 16 yards (34 and 54, to be exact). No, the playcalling wasn't good. But Tebow was worse. He was beyond terrible. What kind of calls can you make when your QB is missing wide open targets by 10 yards, or throwing the ball five yards out of bounds with open receivers and no pressure? Not only were the Broncos without a third-down conversion until the fourth quarter, but they were without a single passing first down until more than half of the fourth quarter was gone.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! You know what really grinds my gears? People like Dan Gainor (whom Kiszla quotes extensively in his column today) who say they're rooting for Tim Tebow because he's a "good role model" and a "player whose jersey you can wear and not worry about wanting to burn it tomorrow" because presumably he's not engaging in any scandalous behavior. Right, because most players are involved in scandals? Are the Broncos lacking in role models? What's wrong with Champ Bailey, Brian Dawkins, Elvis Dumervil, Eddie Royal, or Kyle Orton among the notable Denver veterans?
What's even funnier, is that Gainor goes on to say that if whatever criticism is directed at Tebow were instead aimed at a racial minority, there would be quite the backlash. This prompts a simple question. Would folks like Gainor be so interested in Tebow or in extolling his virtues if Tim weren't white?
Good Morning, Broncos fans! Denver is hoping to have Julius Thomas in action tomorrow, although he's listed as questionable. Brian Dawkins, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal and Willis McGahee are all listed as probably and will play.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are banged up at free safety and are unlikely to have usual starter Reshad Jones (doubtful) and his main backup Chris Clemons (questionable). That leaves Tyrone Culver, who's primarily a special-teams player, and Gerald Alexander (who was just re-signed on Wednesday) to man the position. CB Vontae Davis and TE Will Yeatman are also questionable, while Brandon Marshall, Reggie Bush, LB Cameron Wake, RB Daniel Thomas, and CB Nolan Carroll are all listed as probable.
Happy Friday, Broncos fans! Chris Benson previews Sunday's game for PFF, and he's looking forward to seeing what Denver's young wideouts have to offer - he says Demaryius Thomas provides the most potential, and that Eric Decker must prove that he can get open without Brandon Lloyd commanding the attention of opposing defenses. Benson writes that winning the game (for either team) will be a matter of committing to the run and not making big/costly mistakes in the passing game, and he points out that Joe Mays has been very much hit or miss (literally) in run defense. In fact, Mays is among the leaders among inside backers in terms of defensive stops, but he's got a stomach-turning number of whiffed tackles (eight in five games).
Finally, Benson is interested to see how Orlando Franklin fares (along with whatever TE help Denver provides him) in keeping Dolphins pass rusher Cameron Wake away from Tim Tebow, and he considers it another important key to the game.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! In his latest mailbag, Woody responds to more Tebow-centric witch-hunt-y questions about Brandon Lloyd, and of course he says that Brandon "wasn't a troublemaker" and "didn't conduct his business in public." Woody points to Brandon's intellect and skill and writes that just like any wide receiver (except Brandon Marshall, of course) BLloyd wanted to stay friendly with all of the QBs to ensure they threw him the ball. He says that most of these Broncos talk to the media off the record, although he doesn't mention whether that's unusual as far as Denver teams go, or any NFL squads, for that matter. Woody says Lloyd used to be a good source for anonymous quotes, since he of course is so well-spoken.
In response to a question about how Denver fans treat their players, Woody points out that fans are the same everywhere, and he's right. Here in New York, Mets fans bombard the call-in sports talk shows with their misery, and even worse, ownership tends to "hear' them and react by overpaying guys like Jason Bay, Frankie Rodriguez, Ollie Perez and Luis Castillo, seemingly to pacify ticketholders who want something big done yesterday. And of course, as soon as these ill-advised moves fail and the players don't live up to their contracts, there are those same fans, booing. Carlos Beltran, one of the very best players in Mets history, is remembered by most fans for not swinging at one of the timeliest and most devastating curveballs you'll ever see, rather than the graceful excellence he exhibited every night. So, Kyle Orton has had a rough time with the Broncos, but it's not Denver-specific. The grass is just always greener, with other quarterbacks, cities and fanbases alike.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! The trade deadline has passed, and Kyle Orton, D.J. Williams and Eddie Royal are still Broncos, while Brandon Lloyd is not. Well, that would make sense - only the most talented of the four was coveted by another team. Remember, this is a team that's gone 7-24 over its last 31 games, so the notion that the players we want to see shipped out (Orton, D.J.) would actually be desired elsewhere is perhaps a bit misguided. It would be a surprise to see any of those three players back next year, though.
Yes, D.J. is signed through 2013, but his contract is one that no team would likely want to inherit, and it would be surprising to learn that Denver was interested in paying the rest of it out. He's making $4.9M this year, $5M next year, and $6M in 2013. But it doesn't appear he's due any guarantees going forward, so color me shocked if D.J. isn't cut sometime between the end of this season and the beginning of the next. Perhaps Denver could get a seventh-rounder at some point if D.J. is willing to renegotiate his contract to go someplace specific, but that too seems like a stretch. Oh well. On to Miami...
Good Morning, Broncos fans! Denver made another roster move last night, filling the spot vacated by the Brandon Lloyd trade with safety Rafael Bush (5'11, 197), whom they signed off of Atlanta's practice squad. The Falcons signed Bush as an undrafted free agent last year out of South Carolina State, and he dressed for their season finale after spending the year on the PS. Mike Klis says the signing of Bush is likely a response to the neck injury which kept Brian Dawkins out of practice yesterday and the poor play by Rahim Moore and Quinton Carter in the Broncos' last game versus San Diego.
Klis says the Lloyd trade was largely about money, as the team apparently offered Brandon a two-year deal but with no guaranteed money coming until after this season, and a salary below what Lloyd felt he deserved. Add to that the presence of young wideouts Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas (who was back at practice yesterday) and mix in the fact that Denver just isn't chucking it downfield very much under John Fox's guidance, and you have the makings of a trade which both sides are happy with. And to reiterate, the Broncos would not have received a compensatory pick until the 2013 Draft had they kept Brandon around for the remained of the season.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! More information is finally leaking out regarding the Broncos' near trade of Kyle Orton to the Dolphins. Apparently, it was Miami owner Stephen Ross who nixed the deal, because he is set upon having a clear franchise QB in place for the 2012 season, and well, you know... Ross also intends to hire someone with the stature of Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden and Jeff Fisher to either run his team or coach it. In case you care about these things for some odd reason, Cowher was TJ's first coaching choice for the Broncos post-Shanahan, while I was hoping for Fisher earlier this year.
Further, Chris Mortensen says the deal was so close to fruition that Kyle's transportation to the Sunshine State had been arranged. In other words, the Broncos were more than prepared to ship Orton off, as we've figured since about nine months ago. But you know, continue to blame John Fox or John Elway for Orton not being moved. We don't need no stinking facts when we have our sights set on someone, right?
Good Morning, Broncos fans! I had a rather disappointing Twitter exchange last night with former Denver GM Ted Sundquist, who had written on his own site earlier in the day that Brandon Lloyd "has a history of less than “exemplary” behavior in Dove Valley" and in response to a reader's comment went on to call Lloyd "disgruntled" and speculate that Denver would even consider deactivating the WR or releasing him outright. In yesterday's Lard, I had written that Sundquist was "sadly perpetuating the myths about Lloyd being a bad guy". Later in the day, Sundquist tweeted:
@craigary @IAOFM Nice blog, but I wouldn't "perpetuate the myth" if I didn't know what I was saying. Would never do that to a player.
This is fair. Ted spent 16 years in the Denver organization, and he presumably still has plenty of knowledgeable contacts there. So, perhaps there's some truth to what Ted wrote yesterday. I'm certainly in no position to dispute that, and I won't. But, Ted's writing now, and on his own site - and he's the first person to paint Lloyd as a malcontent in Denver. Yes, Brandon arrived with a less-than-stellar reputation; but again, we've had over two years to judge the guy for ourselves. There was no hint of Lloyd being disgruntled or having demanded a trade when Mike Klis broke the news the other day that Brandon was being offered around.