Ted's Analysis

Gut Reaction: Broncos sign Terrance Knighton

The Broncos keep on working free agency, and they haven’t even had to cut Elvis Dumervil yet, as far as we know.  The signing of Terrance Knighton is another good one, assuming the money is reasonable.  As with Kevin Vickerson, Knighton portends to play a key role in keeping the running game clogged up with only seven men.

Knighton is another guy who Tom Nalen would call a fatty, tipping the scales at 330 pounds.  I call him a dude who can mash an offensive guard, and who can defend two gaps up front.  He’s also an excellent athlete for his size, and he played TE in high school in Windsor, CT.  (Shout out to my fellow nutmegger!)

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Gut Reaction: Broncos sign Wes Welker

Well, I’m shocked, and I’ve come around to joining Doug in being pretty happy that Wes Welker will be joining the Denver Broncos.  The main reason for my shift in opinion is that they got him quite a bit cheaper, and on a shorter-term deal than I thought was possible.  Remember, the Broncos are a team that has to pay Von Miller and Demaryius Thomas over the next couple of years, so keeping a deal short is key.

On the field, this move is going to make the Broncos nigh on unstoppable offensively.  I expect them to play four guys from the quintet of Thomas, Eric Decker, Welker, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dreessen, and just grind teams up with the passing game at all levels of the field.

It doesn’t matter who the running back is, because the acquisition of Welker guarantees that the Broncos won’t be seeing base defense much at all.  Whoever the RB is will be running against really light box counts, and Welker is an excellent blocker for his size.  In the running game, Welker is a sneaky positive, because he mashes the nickelback in front of him way more often than not.

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Gut Reaction: The Broncos re-sign Kevin Vickerson

I'll just start by saying that I'm very happy that the Broncos re-signed Kevin Vickerson.  He did a terrific job for them in 2012 and played a big part in them doing such a good job against the run for most of the season.  Along with Justin Bannan and Derek Wolfe, the Broncos' front-three did a nice job occupying the opposing five offensive linemen in the run game, and allowing the other front-seven players to flow to the ball.

Fundamentally, all things being equal, I always think it's better to re-sign a player than it is to sign a free agent from another team.  With an outsider, you face scheme risk, in the sense that you don't know if a guy translates to what you're going to ask him to do.  The Broncos know that Big Vick can play in multiple alignments, two-gap on base downs, and one-gap some in passing downs.  What they're doing schematically isn't really common, so knowing a guy can do the job is key.

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Gut Reaction: Broncos sign Louis Vasquez

I’m never a really big proponent of signing free agents in the first hour of the proceedings, because you end up having to pay top of the market prices for them.  I’m a much bigger fan of waiting a day or two, and letting the suckers get their money out there, and see who’s left.

That said, if you really want to upgrade at offensive guard, you could do worse than signing Louis Vasquez.  I think he came into his own as a player in 2012, and was definitely the best offensive lineman on the Chargers.  Of course, their line was pitiful, and their number-one priority has to be fixing it.  By signing Vasquez, the Broncos just helped themselves, and hurt the second-place team in the division in about the worst way they could be hurt.

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Rosterbation: Legal tampering edition

Happy Monday, friends.  As some of the rumors start to come out about free agency, I have some thoughts on a few of the Broncos-related ones.  Let’s rosterbate, shall we?

1.  Doug linked to an Omar Kelly report that the Broncos are the leader for Reggie Bush, and he questioned the likely veracity of the rumor, because Bush isn’t bigger or more durable than any of the current Broncos RBs. 

I don’t really agree that the Broncos need a big back, because Willis McGahee does fine in that role, and it’s a reasonably safe assumption that he’ll be back to full health in 2013.  I wouldn’t call him injury-prone either, over the majority of his career.  I do think that McGahee is best in a committee situation, and whether the Broncos acquire another back or not, that that's where he'll find himself in 2013.

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NFL team valuations: Still bubblin’

Happy Friday, friends.  I was pretty interested to see the Deadspin article that ran yesterday and included a full copy of the audited financial statements of the Carolina Panthers.  They presented the last two fiscal years, which ended on March 31 of 2012 and 2011, respectively, and they offer a good look at the financial position of a team that sits right in the middle of the NFL in Forbes’s valuation rankings.

I know that I always have some first-time readers, so I hope that my long-time readers will bear with me as I lay out my bona fides for addressing this topic.  I have bachelors degrees in both finance and accounting, and also an MBA.  I’m presently working on finishing the CPA exam, and I hope/expect to be done with it by the end of May.  Additionally, I’ve been working in corporate accounting and finance for eight years, since I graduated with my first BBA.

I’m not exactly an accounting expert, but anybody would tell you that I’m a pretty solid pro, and among football writers, I’m pretty confident in where I stand as a financial analyst.

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You Got Served: Tying Darrelle Revis to Elvis Dumervil

Happy Thursday, friends.  In the wake of the news that Elvis Dumervil is being asked to take a pay cut, I’ve been thinking about what it might mean in a larger sense for the Broncos’ offseason plans.

I haven’t been buying the idea of the Broncos being in on Darrelle Revis, but with the team’s salary structure as it currently stands, and with the expected cuts of D.J. Williams and Joe Mays looming, I tend to view the Dumervil business as a complementary move to something big.

About five weeks ago, I wrote an article where I talked about the Broncos’ salary structure.  I pointed out that Peyton Manning, Dumervil, Champ Bailey, Ryan Clady, and Von Miller account for $58 million in cap hit, which is now 47% of the Broncos salary cap.  That is the primary reason that I say that the Broncos can’t accommodate another large salary.

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Hypothetically replacing Ryan Clady

Happy Saturday, friends.  I was asked by Doug to consider the question posed in this morning's Lard, under the assumption that Ryan Clady gets signed away by another team for the cost of two first-round picks.  It would take a team with cap room, and which wants an absolute sure thing at the LT position to do it.  Really, given Clady's rotator cuff surgery, it's not exactly a sure thing, but it's close to one.

Let's consider what the Broncos' options would be, given the following parameters:

  • An extra 2013 first-round pick - since it's generic, let's call it the 16th pick.
  • Cap room savings of $9.828 million, since the franchise tag wouldn't be in effect any longer.
  • No left tackle on the roster, not even a reasonable project kind of player.

The Broncos would own two first-round picks, a second, and a third in the first two days of the draft, and they'd have about $17 million in cap space, with $9 million more easily available when/if D.J. Williams and Joe Mays are cut.

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Quick thoughts on the Broncos and Collie, Woodson, and Freeney

Happy Saturday, friends. As per Doug's request from last night, I have some thoughts on the potential matches between the Broncos and new free agents Charles Woodson, Dwight Freeney, and Austin Collie.

All are established veterans, but have enough tarnish at this point that they won't command much contractually - think one-year deals, with little or no guaranteed money.

Collie's issue is concussions, but I'd take a look at him as a fourth WR for the minimum.  I'm sure he has better chemistry with Peyton Manning and knowledge of the route concepts than Matt Willis (who's also an unrestricted free agent) does.

I think there's more potential value to the Broncos with Collie than there is to any other team, and the risk to the team is nil.

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Mailbag: Possible breakout defensive players for 2013

Happy Friday, friends.  I got derailed from writing for yesterday, and while I may be a day late, you won’t catch me a dollar short.  In continuation of Wednesday’s topic, today I want to talk about some young Broncos defenders who may be primed for a big leap in 2013.

The most obvious one is probably Derek Wolfe, who had a very nice rookie season, and who I think is only scratching the surface of his potential.  The first thing you have to understand about Wolfe is that he’s not used as a traditional 4-3 DE; he’s really more of a 3-4 type of player, and the Broncos defense is actually mostly a 3-4 in disguise.  If Elvis Dumervil lined up in a two-point stance, the disguise would be gone.

Wolfe was the primary difference between 2011, when the Broncos usually had to use eight men in the box against the run, and 2012, when they usually managed pretty well with seven.  It’s a major deal for the soundness of a defense when it can afford to keep two deep safeties, and the play of Wolfe, Justin Bannan, and Kevin Vickerson was what allowed it.

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