Ted's Analysis

Digesting the Dolphins

Happy Friday, friends.  I hope you're hungry, because today we're going to munch on some Dolphins that got caught in the nets.  The Broncos travel south to sunny Miami, where they've never won a regular season game.  Since the Dolphins seem hell-bent on winning the Suck for Luck sweepstakes, it's looking like the Broncos will have a solid chance to end that streak.  Can you hear the zealots?  Tebow is the greatest ever!  He did something that no Broncos QB has ever done!

Personally, I'd be happy with continuous improvement from Tebow, and effective overall play.  If the Broncos get that, and if the defense plays like it did in the second half vs. San Diego, I feel pretty good about their chances to improve to 2-4.  If not, there's always next week.  Anyway, let's get on with the show.  As En Vogue once said, Now it's time for a breakdown.

Game Watched: Dolphins at NY Jets (Week 6)

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You Got Served: Stray football thoughts

Happy Tuesday, friends.  Since there was no Broncos game this weekend to comment on, I decided to just share some stray football thoughts for a while.  Since I actually had to closely watch the Miami game live last night, my normal Monday night writing time was short, so we’ll see what comes out.  Ready….. BEGIN!!

1.  I suppose I should begin with the “fire sale” concept, and whether the Broncos are having one.  I supported the trade of Brandon Lloyd, because clearly the team had decided that they weren’t going to pay him long dollars in the offseason.  Teams have to make organizational decisions, and frankly, we’ve seen a few work out pretty well lately.  I don’t miss Brandon Marshall, for example.  Did anybody see him playing like he just didn’t care Monday night?  That guy is a losing football player, and I don't miss him.

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You Got Served: Tebow Time, Part 2

Happy Friday, friends, and welcome back for a bonus Serving.  As promised on Tuesday, I’ve come up with six more Tebow-friendly plays, and I’ll have some thoughts at the end pulling it all together.  First of all, though, I wanted to address a stupid notion from Trent Dilfer that appeared in the Don Banks article that Doug referenced in today’s Lard.

Dilfer knows what he’s looking at, and he’s a good judge of the ability to throw the ball, and of proper mechanics.  His premise in this quote is beyond stupid, though.

His biggest issue will be, every good passing offense in this league, without exception, is based on rhythm, timing and location. There's a rhythm to a pass play, there's a timing to a pass play, and there's a location the ball and the receiver needs to be on a pass play. And those are the three things he really struggles with.'

I think Dilfer’s point that every good current NFL passing game is based on timing is dubious, but I’m not going to lose focus on arguing that.  My big problem with this statement is the inherent assumption that just because things have trended in one direction throughout a lot of the NFL that everybody has to go with that trend.

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You Got Served: Tebow Time

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of You Got Served.  Not much of interest happened over the weekend, so I’ll probably just keep this boring and unprovocative, like everybody does on a slow news day.  How about them Texas Rangers?

I guess there’s the little matter of Tim Tebow getting some action, and being named the starting QB today, so I suppose I’ll touch on that a little bit.  It hasn’t gotten enough attention, so why not give it some?  Ready… BEGIN!!

1.  The Broncos did the only thing they could do on Sunday, and that’s bench Kyle Orton.  He has played poorly this year, and he lost the QB job after an ample amount of time to turn it around and show better results than he did.  There’s no reasonable defense that can be made of his play, and no rationalization about anybody else will stand up.  Isolating Orton’s play, there was simply a lot to be desired.

When Tebow entered the game on Sunday, he was joining a completely flat team, and they got energized pretty quickly on both sides of the ball.  I don’t know if we can attribute that all to Tebow’s entrance, but I think it’s the most likely cause.  I will definitely say that I think the offensive group competes harder when Tebow is in the game than they do when Orton is in the game.  The 3.5 games we've seen of Tebow tell me that that is the case, when measured against the 33.5 Orton games.

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Digesting the Chargers

Happy Friday, friends.  It’s Chargers week, and today we’re going to Digest the Bolts.  After watching the film, I have some reasons to be cautiously optimistic, and I get the impression from some comments on other articles that I’m not the only one.

As with any week where I come back from vacation, it’s been hellacious.  When you sign up to be a salaried employee, they don’t explicitly tell you that your pile only grows when you’re away, but you figure it out pretty quickly - and taking Friday and Monday off means doing six days of work in four days when you get back.  Anyway, on to the analysis.  Between my job, this site, and my Marketing Strategy class for my MBA program, my brain has been analyzing nonstop this week, and the hamster is getting a little tired.  Still, for you, I press on.

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You Got Served: The copycat NFL (we hope)

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to what will be a somewhat abbreviated version of You Got Served.  The Broncos lost, and frankly, my Digesting preview from Friday had it pegged.  I got a bunch of reaction that thought I was underselling the Broncos, but I wasn’t.  I just had it right; this Broncos team isn’t ready to compete with the Super Bowl Champions in their building yet.  Hilariously on Sunday, one of my least favorite trolls from my four years of writing about football accused me of “blatant homerism” in the Lard comments because I can see that Robert Ayers is a good player, and I frequently say so.  I got a good laugh at that when I was sitting in the Key West airport on Monday morning waiting to come home.  Evidently, I’m a homer who has somehow picked the Broncos to lose three of their four games this season so far.  I had a win against Oakland and a loss against Cincinnati, but otherwise I’ve had it right, and in the case of the Tennessee and Green Bay games, I’ve had it very right.

I’ve got rebuilding fever, even if John Elway doesn’t really like that word, because he feels like it provides a built-in excuse.  At least his objection was of a semantic nature, and he didn’t just dismiss the idea out of hand that a clear transition is underway.  Teams have to be honest with themselves about what they are, and since our analysis here aspires to be of a similar quality to what teams are seeing themselves, we also have to be honest about what the Broncos are.

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Digesting the Packers

Happy Friday friends, and welcome to the first ever edition of Digesting that was written in the air or on an iPad.  It's been a hellaciously busy week as expected, but I'm heartened by the fact that as soon as we got over the clouds on the way out of Cleveland, the overcast gloomy view vanished and it was nothing but sunshine.

This week it's the Green Bay Packers in lovely Wisconsin, land of cow patties and beer farts.  I'm not exactly breaking news to say that this will be challenging, and I'd go so far as to say that I think Brian Burke's model which Doug referenced this morning may be over-optimistic in giving the Broncos a 25% win probability.  I've got my rubber gloves on (I lease them with an option to buy) and I'm ready to conduct the examination, so without further adieu, let's get it on.

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You Got Served - Losing respectably

Happy Rebuilding Tuesday, friends.  Since I got my mind right last week and remembered what was really going on, I found myself significantly less upset about Sunday’s game than I’ve historically been about Broncos losses.  I also decided that I think Foxball is a great way to rebuild, because as TJ pointed out Sunday, it makes it hard to get blown out of games.  As much as I can be a pretty good sport about losing 17-14 on the road when I expected practically that exact result, it remains to be seen how I do with something like the 43-13 stinkbomb against Arizona last season.

In any case, this might be the busiest week that I have all season, because it’s my month-end close, I have a test in my MBA class on Thursday night, and I’m heading out with my girlfriend for a weekend in Key West on Friday morning.  I was a crew member of the original USS Spruance (DD-963), which was the lead ship of the Spruance class, and as such I was invited to attend the commissioning of the second USS Spruance (DDG-111), the 61st ship of the Arleigh Burke class, which will take place on Saturday evening.  I’m going to do the best  I can today and Friday, and I’ll be watching the game on my iPad on Sunday but no other games, because you know, it’s Key West.  Anyway, it’s down to football as time allows.  Ready…BEGIN!!

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Digesting the Titans

Happy Friday, friends.  I hope you enjoyed Tom Gower’s thoughts on the Titans that we posted earlier today.  He’s a respected writer who contributes to Football Outsiders, and we’re happy to have his work appear at our humble site.  My work likewise appeared over at his site, and I only hope that the readers at Total Titans find our contribution up to their normal standards.

Since Tom gave us some Titans thoughts, I said to myself, “Self, maybe you should go light, or even skip the Digesting piece, and just leave it to their “inside” guy who’s really familiar with the team.”  I considered doing so for a few minutes, but y’all know me: I like excess.  More is better than less.  That said, here are some observations on the Titans:

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Digesting the Bengals

Happy Friday, friends.  When we last talked I was depressed, and really down on Kyle Orton.  Today I’m doing fine, and I’m still really down on Kyle Orton.  A few of his cheerleaders on this site tried to get me to argue with them about Orton’s suckitude, but I have a long-standing policy of not arguing; I just say what I think.  Besides, their rationalizations are about as meaningful to me as a billboard is to John Fox.  He trusts his eyes, and I trust mine.  This article is not about Kyle Orton, though, so let’s get down to the business of digestion.  (Hat tip to broncosmontana for suggesting the title in last week’s comments.  We’re going with it every week.)

Game Watched : Week 1 at Cleveland

Bengals Defense

a.  My general observation is that the Bengals seem to have two tactics that they use frequently: They either line up in a Cover-2 look and play Cover-2, or they line up in a blitz/man look and blitz and play man-to-man.  There’s very little effort to disguise what’s coming on defense, or to disguise who is blitzing when they blitz.  They’re keeping it simple and trying to just go out and execute, and that kind of makes them parallel to the Colts' way of playing offense, except that the Colts (with Peyton Manning) are a lot better at executing on offense than the Bengals are at executing on defense.

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