Ted's Analysis

Digesting the Patriots

Happy Friday, friends.  It’s time to Digest the New England Patriots.  This isn’t the same Patriots team that we’re used to, and the Broncos obviously aren’t the same Broncos team that Tom Brady and company are used to losing to, so it should be very interesting.

Off the top, it’s interesting that the Patriots are seven-point favorites on the road against a team that has won six straight games.  I almost never talk about betting lines, because I don’t believe in betting on sports, but this is an interesting bit of narrative psychology to me.  The media has set a narrative around the Broncos such that Joe Six-pack is led to believe that there was some magic happening, and a plucky QB who loves his Jesus was behind it, but just wait until the Tebows play the Bradys.  The Tebows will come back to Earth.  People are betting heavy for the Patriots, obviously, I think because they think in terms of media narratives.

Of course, I think conflating a whole team with its QB is completely stupid.  There’s so much happening on a football field on any play that it’s silly to just focus on who’s throwing the ball.  As always, today, we’re going to explore the rest of the story.

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Why Tim Tebow is better in the 4th Quarter

Happy Tuesday, friends.  I’ve had some unexpected professional challenges/opportunities come up that have had me working day and night lately, while simultaneously finishing a semester up in my MBA program, and it’s briefly messed up my writing schedule.  I’m sorry I wasn’t able to deliver a Digesting article on Friday, but I’m optimistic about doing one for this week. 

For today, I’m going short blog-post style, on a topic that seems to be flummoxing the whole football watching world.  Why is Tim Tebow so much better in the 4th quarter of games?  I know the answer to this question, and I’m going to share it with you today.  It’s a matter of seeing the forest through the trees, and looking back to Tebow’s time at Florida to understand the phenomenon.

First, let’s start with a thought exercise.  Based on Tebow’s skill set, what’s the best approach that the Broncos can take to being successful on offense?  Consider personnel groupings, play-calling, and overall philosophy.  Really consider this, and get the answer in your head.

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You Got Served: Digesting the Broncos

Happy Tuesday, friends.  I’ve gotten some requests to do a Digesting piece on the Broncos, and I decided that I’d do one today.  I’m in the process of writing a very lengthy paper for my marketing class that’s due on Wednesday, so I need something a bit shorter than usual (not so much, as it turned out) for the site today.  I figure that I can go short medium-to-long, and still make some people happy.  Ready… BEGIN!!

I’ve obviously watched every snap that the Broncos have taken this year, at least three times.  Where I can get a good sense of an opponent by watching a game or two, I would hope that I have a great sense of the Broncos.  Here goes.

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Digesting the Vikings

Happy Friday, friends.  It’s time to Digest the Minnesota Vikings, who despite their 2-9 record have a bit of power behind their punches, and can knock you out if you don’t come correct.  They’re lining up to have a very high draft pick in 2012, and I think that they can have a pretty quick turnaround in 2012 assuming they pick wisely, and their young QB improves.  For now, though, let’s take a look at them in their current state.

Generally, I’d say that the Vikings profile kind of similarly to the Broncos in some important ways.  To wit:

a.  Both teams start young QBs who can look good one play and bad the next.

b.  Both teams struggle to protect the passer in the straight-up dropback passing game, but both can get the running game blocked a lot of the time.

c.  Both teams can rush the passer creditably from both edges, although the Vikings’ second-best guy (Brian Robison) is not really close to the Broncos’ (Elvis Dumervil) level.

d.  Both teams have a good set of DTs who stuff the run well, and both teams’ LB corps are better against the run than in coverage.

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You Got Served: Why are the Broncos winning?

Happy Victory Tuesday, friends.  Are you getting used to Victory Tuesdays, yet?  I kind of like them, personally.  Those of you who had your hearts set on a Top-5 pick may not, but football is funny.  Players and coaches like to win, and they try really hard to make that happen, and sometimes they get it done, even if some find it to be strategically unpreferable.  In this space, we’re always pro-#winning, so deal with it.  Ready… BEGIN!!

1.  Today, I want to share some thoughts about why the Broncos are winning, and why it has seemed like a tale of two seasons.  There are a number of reasons for it, and it qualifies as a confluence of all of those reasons.  I’m one guy with an opinion, but here’s my list:

a.  It took a little while, but the team has taken very well to the new defensive scheme.  The Broncos tried to use even-front players in a Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4 scheme for two seasons and didn’t have great results.  This staff came in and installed an aggressive 4-3 that has a very simple and sound approach to gap control.

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Re-Digesting the Chargers

Happy Fat Man Friday, friends.  On Sunday, the Broncos will plays the Chargers for the second time this season.  What’s changed since October 9th?  Well, on the surface, the answer is everything.  Tim Tebow took over the Broncos offense in the second half of that game, with his team trailing 23-10 and looking sluggish.  Tebow then rallied the team to fall just short of winning at 29-24, as a pass into the end zone on the game’s final play was nearly caught by Matt Willis in the typical Hail Mary crowd.  On that day, the Chargers improved to 4-1, and the Broncos fell to 1-4.

Since then, the Broncos are 4-1 on the strength of an improved defense and running game, as well as some timely plays by Tebow.  The Chargers are 0-5 in that same period and have gotten really banged up in the process.  I can’t see any way that their season isn’t over, in terms of playoff meaning, at this point.

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You Got Served: Thoughts on pass protection

Happy Tuesday, friends.  It’s been five days since the last Broncos victory, so I decided not to rehash it, since it’s been done to death at this point.  I have been working on a short (for me) essay about pass protection, and I decided to make it longer and more detailed and give that to you today.  Friday, it’ll be back to Digesting the Chargers, and we should be on the regular schedule from here on out.  Ready… BEGIN!!!

1.  Once, when I was three years old, I woke my mother up from a nap.  A man was breaking into the house downstairs, I told her.  He was tall and had dark hair, and was coming in through the window in the living room.  I was telling my mom about this guy in vivid detail, and like any mom, she got scared.  I had three younger siblings who were all also having a nap at the time, so my mother went and frantically made sure that they were safe.  Then she locked us all in one room and called the cops. 

As it turned out, that was an early indication of the kind of storyteller I was to become.  It was like little Eddie Murphy telling the joke about the monkey kicking the lion in the ding-ding.  We are all uniquely ourselves, and our character starts getting revealed at a young age.  I wasn’t lying, of course; I had just thought up some cool fiction and was sharing it with my mom.  She was not as impressed as I thought she’d be, and on the rare occasion I’ve ever heard her tell that story, the context is how hard it was to raise four little kids at once, and tangentially, that I had a hellion moment here and there.  (Both are fair points, of course.)

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You Got Served: Now Digest the Jets!

Happy Victory Tuesday, friends.  Today, you’re going to get a Serving of thoughts on the Chiefs game, and something to Digest about the Jets, since that game is being played on Thursday night.  Get excited, because it’s a two-fer Tuesday.  Ready… BEGIN!!

1.  Sunday’s win came in an unusual way, but you should never apologize for a victory.  One of the Denver reporters got a little smart-assed with John Fox, and asked if he’d ever coached a game like that before.  Fox kind of smirked, and said that yes, he had.  It turned out that he won that one too.  Jake Delhomme was out, and they pounded the hell out of the Falcons that day and played good defense.

For the last two weeks, the Broncos have gotten in touch with their physical side on offense, and a creative and effective running game has led to back-to-back road AFC West victories against both of the Broncos’ most hated rivals.  For a Denver Broncos fan, it doesn’t get much better than that.

Somehow, though, being a Broncos fan has gotten to be more complicated than that.  Somehow, everything came to revolve around the Quarterback, and sides have been chosen; everybody seems to have a bias one way or another, and the Broncos and Tim Tebow keep confirming it, whatever it is.  For a while this was amusing, but it’s really kind of tiresome to me at this point.

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Digesting the Chiefs

Happy Friday, friends.  Today we Digest the Kansas City Chiefs, who’ve had a really weird season.  They lost key players in Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki and Jamaal Charles early on, and they lost their first three games huge, being outscored by a total of 109-27 in those games.  They then went on to win four in a row, beating Minnesota and San Diego at home, and Indianapolis and Oakland on the road.  Just when it seemed that they’d figured out how to play good undermanned football, they got crushed 31-3 at home by the Dolphins last Sunday.  As TJ would say in Gut Reactions, who the heck knows?

Today, we’re going to try to figure out what the Chiefs really are, and what we can expect to see on Sunday afternoon.  Really, what do you call a team that’s been blown out three times, blown out the first-place Raiders once (when they caught them on a Kyle Boller/rusty Carson Palmer day), and gone 3-1 in games decided by less than five points?  That’s what we’re going to try to figure out today.

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You Got Served: The Zone Read

Happy Victory Tuesday, friends.  I hope you’re ready for a Serving, because I’ve got one for you.  I’m in last place in the picks competition, and a primary reason why is that I’m now 2-6 in picking Broncos games.  (I had them losing to Green Bay, and beating Miami.)  You can’t win them all, I guess, and I just don't seem to have a great feel for when the Broncos are going to play well.  Maybe if I read the DP rather than Doug's parsing of their work, I might know if they "had a good week of practice."

Anyway, today we’re going to explore in detail why the Broncos beat the Raiders on Sunday.  It was a total team win, as has been said, but more than that, I would say that it was the first time this season that the offense pulled its weight.  Aside from a couple of missed throws by Tim Tebow and some penalties (I’m looking at you, Ryan Clady) it was a consistent and productive effort.  Since offense is kind of my thing, I’m excited to spend some time talking about it.  Ready… BEGIN!!

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