Welcome to Week 5's Stats That Don't Lie, already featuring changes from last week's edition. As I explained on Sunday, I'm actually not that wild about using penalty yardage to assess teams, so in the spirit of wanting STDL to be a simple and svelte tool to help visualize the Broncos' chances each week, I've decided to axe that category. I've also changed the rushing metric from CHFF's rusher rating to PFR's Adjusted Rushing Yards per Attempt (ARY/A), also expressed as a differential between offense and defense.
Over the years, TJ has presented The Stats That Don't Lie, a weekly glance at the Broncos' standing within the league in several key statistical categories. Going forward, I'm going to be reprising STDL by focusing on a few numbers that evidence a high correlation to winning (or losing) NFL games, and how the Broncos match up in those areas against their upcoming opponent.
We'll start today with Broncos/Packers, which as you might have figured doesn't look pretty in bar graph form. Actually, no figures would look good in my crude charts, but we're working on coming up with something a bit more pleasing to the eye.
It's been several weeks since we brought you our weekly summary of Broncos-related stats.
There was a good reason--week after week there was nothing novel about the Broncos sucking wind. The numbers were terrible, and the only question that remained after Week 8 was whether or not the team would rank last in each and every defensive category. Snipers were beginning to assemble on rooftops.
Since the season is coming to an end, we thought it high time to at least give our readers what they deserve: more crappy Broncos stats.
On the bright side, it will be a 20-minute distraction from your daily ritual of wondering who the Broncos will draft.
How many video operations directors does it take to change a light bulb?
Who knows? But it takes a whole hell of a lot of them to make the Broncos' stats look good.
After a few weeks on the sideline, The Stats That Don't Lie are back.
Unfortunately for the Broncos, they haven't made a triumphant return.
As you'll see, these stats can't be made to make the Broncos look good under any circumstance.
The good news? You can change your own light bulb.
Imagine there's no Hillis
It's easy if you try
Al Davis still below us
Above us playoff sky...
You may have remembered--just for a flash--on Sunday that the Broncos have a running back named Knowshon Moreno, who ran for 106 yards.
Another silly thought (a reverie perhaps?) probably entered your mind, too: the Broncos can still win this division.
Yes, it's true. With 7 games to go, the Broncos can technically win this thing.
The stats, though, have other ideas.
One trick almost all stats guys have in their bag is sample size.
If you cherry pick your sample size to your desires, you can make the numbers say almost anything.
For example, if a team loses 59-14, you can always focus on that one game and make a wickedly-good argument that the loser of that game was perhaps the worst team in history.
Now that the Broncos have finished 8 weeks of play, these tricks become less useful. 8 games turns into 81 drives, 316 passes, and 185 rushes.
In short, it’s getting harder to hide.
With this in mind, I present to you this week’s Stats That Don’t Lie, which aren’t really bad. They’re just drawn that way.
The Broncos are going to London; their fans are just going barmy.
I’m not going to lie to you. This week’s version of the Stats That Don’t Lie aren’t cracking. In fact, they are quite beastly.
In what seems like a bad horror movie marathon, these stats just keep cutting deeper and deeper.
This week, in an attempt to keep you gobsmacked, I not only compared the Broncos to the league average in each category, I decided to give you their ranking as well. I wanted you to see just how bad it’s become.
So without further delay, let’s get to the stats, which are always on the job and never stop to take a mick.
Last year at this time, the Broncos were 6-0, and all Broncomaniancs felt higher than Brian Cushing on a fertility drug.
A year later, like Cushing, Broncos fans are feeling the crash.
The Broncos are now 2-4. Tied for 2nd; tied for last.
Last year the question was whether or not Kyle Orton could throw the deep ball.
Not only have we found out he can throw the deep ball, but he’s almost become addicted to it.
The Broncos are stacked.
Unfortunately, they are a little top heavy.
Like the guy at the gym who only works his arms, the Broncos have some gigantic biceps.
If they could only work on those chicken legs before they go puffing out their chest.
This week’s stats are going to show you what you already know. The Broncos can pass, but they can’t run. However, even the numbers are misleading (lying, you might say?). Most of these passing yards are hollow because the Broncos have been playing from behind in all of their games.
Either way, you’ve come looking for the stats, so you’re going to get them. Strong. Long. And ready to get the friction on.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done. —Vince Lombardi
Even though we’ve already reached the quarter point of the football season, it’s important to remember one thing:
We’ve still got three quarters to go.
That means, like in any game, there’s still time to make a run. The same is true for your division opponents (sans Oakland).
So do yourself a favor and don’t get too married to the following stats after only four weeks. Yes, the numbers will show exactly what you’ve been thinking—that the Broncos can’t run, but they sure can pass. But a lot of this can change in just a few weeks.