Stats That Don't Lie

STDL: Week 10 - Broncos at Chiefs

Welcome to the Week 10 Edition of The Stats That Don't Lie. Let's be blunt, here. This is one of those games that nobody outside of Broncos and Chiefs fans want to watch (Gators?). Denver and Kansas City rank 30th and 31st according to Brian Burke's efficiency numbers, respectively, ahead of only the winless Colts.

I'd like to make a point about these metrics (and any stats) - the goal here isn't to predict what's going to happen in any given game (win/lose/magnitude), because no set of numbers can do that - rather, it's just some commentary on what's likely to happen based upon past performance. These numbers are a guide to show you how efficient teams are in the various phases of the game, and of course a team can break out of a pattern of ineptitude or suddenly fail in a phase they've thrived in at any moment. Just because the Broncos don't fare well in turnover differential overall doesn't mean they can't win that battle on any given Sunday (like last week).

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STDL: Week 9 - Broncos at Raiders

Welcome to the Al Davis Memorial Edition of the Stats That Don't Lie. Being that this Sunday will mark the first matchup between the Broncos and their fiercest rivals* since the passing of The Crypt Keeper, I thought it appropriate to honor some of Big Al's finest personnel moves with today's STDL.

As for the game, this is not much of a rematch from the MNF opener, as both teams have new QBs (neither of whom has played as well as the guy they replaced, although it's early) and the Raiders will likely be without their best offensive player, RB Darren McFadden. DMC has 510 yards from scrimmage in the teams' last three matchups, helping turn both 2010 meetings into blowouts. Hopefully the absence of McFadden and the newness of Carson Palmer to Oakland helps narrow the gap between these two teams:

* If you think it's the Chargers, ask your dad or older brother

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STDL: Week 8 - Broncos vs Lions

Welcome to Week 8's Stats That Don't Lie. So far, the stats have not been lying, painting a bleak picture in Green Bay, giving the Broncos a fighting chance against San Diego, and predicting an ugly victory in Miami. Obviously, the question this week is whether the Broncos and Lions are true reflections of the figures they've posted to this point, or are they completely different teams with Denver making the change at QB and Detroit struggling on offense since Jahvid Best went down with his latest concussion? Quite frankly, we have to hope for the latter, as the numbers don't appear to give the Broncos much of a chance...

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STDL: Week 7 - Broncos at Dolphins

Welcome to the 2008 Gators Edition of the Stats That Don't Lie. After all, if the Dolphins are honoring Tim Tebow's championship team as he leads our Broncos into town, then who the hell are we not to do the same? In that light, for just this week we're going to name each category for a key figure from that title team.

Obviously, the context that overlies this Gators edition of STDL is that both teams have new quarterbacks - Tebow making his first start of the season, and Matt Moore making just his second for Miami, if his atrocious performance Monday night even counts. Let's get right to it...

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STDL: Week 5 - Broncos vs Chargers

Welcome to Week 5's Stats That Don't Lie, already featuring changes from last week's edition. As I explained on Sunday, I'm actually not that wild about using penalty yardage to assess teams, so in the spirit of wanting STDL to be a simple and svelte tool to help visualize the Broncos' chances each week, I've decided to axe that category. I've also changed the rushing metric from CHFF's rusher rating to PFR's Adjusted Rushing Yards per Attempt (ARY/A), also expressed as a differential between offense and defense.

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STDL: Week 4 - Broncos vs Packers

Over the years, TJ has presented The Stats That Don't Lie, a weekly glance at the Broncos' standing within the league in several key statistical categories. Going forward, I'm going to be reprising STDL by focusing on a few numbers that evidence a high correlation to winning (or losing) NFL games, and how the Broncos match up in those areas against their upcoming opponent. 

We'll start today with Broncos/Packers, which as you might have figured doesn't look pretty in bar graph form. Actually, no figures would look good in my crude charts, but we're working on coming up with something a bit more pleasing to the eye.

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The Stats That Don’t Suck (as Bad) - Week 16: Lloyd v. Marshall

It's been several weeks since we brought you our weekly summary of Broncos-related stats.  

There was a good reason--week after week there was nothing novel about the Broncos sucking wind.  The numbers were terrible, and the only question that remained after Week 8 was whether or not the team would rank last in each and every defensive category.  Snipers were beginning to assemble on rooftops.

Since the season is coming to an end, we thought it high time to at least give our readers what they deserve:  more crappy Broncos stats.

On the bright side, it will be a 20-minute distraction from your daily ritual of wondering who the Broncos will draft.

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The Stats That Don’t Lie - Week 12: 3rd downs, they ain’t what they used to be

How many video operations directors does it take to change a light bulb?

Who knows?  But it takes a whole hell of a lot of them to make the Broncos' stats look good.

After a few weeks on the sideline, The Stats That Don't Lie are back.

Unfortunately for the Broncos, they haven't made a triumphant return.

As you'll see, these stats can't be made to make the Broncos look good under any circumstance.

The good news?  You can change your own light bulb.

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The Stats That Don’t Lie - Week 10: Tebow in the Sky with Diamonds

Imagine there's no Hillis
It's easy if you try
Al Davis still below us
Above us playoff sky...

You may have remembered--just for a flash--on Sunday that the Broncos have a running back named Knowshon Moreno, who ran for 106 yards.

Another silly thought (a reverie perhaps?) probably entered your mind, too: the Broncos can still win this division.

Yes, it's true.  With 7 games to go, the Broncos can technically win this thing.  

The stats, though, have other ideas.

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The Stats That Don’t Lie - Week 8: A kick to the testicles

One trick almost all stats guys have in their bag is sample size.

If you cherry pick your sample size to your desires, you can make the numbers say almost anything.

For example, if a team loses 59-14, you can always focus on that one game and make a wickedly-good argument that the loser of that game was perhaps the worst team in history.

Now that the Broncos have finished 8 weeks of play, these tricks become less useful.  8 games turns into 81 drives, 316 passes, and 185 rushes. 

In short, it’s getting harder to hide.

With this in mind, I present to you this week’s Stats That Don’t Lie, which aren’t really bad.  They’re just drawn that way.

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