Stats That Don't Lie

Fun with projections, 2014 Week 7 edition

Thursday's game against San Diego will probably be one of those 23-20 slugfests.1

That gives us just under three days to pretend the Broncos are going to continue on the exact same pace they've established over six games.

Of course, it's extra fun to do this after a 42-17 all-phases blowout win over a supposed SB contender.

Continue reading "Fun with projections, 2014 Week 7 edition"

One more thing on Alex Smith…

While going through Peter King's MMQB column just now, the following line jumped out:

He’s going to complete 64 percent or so of his throws, he’s going to limit mistakes, and he’s going to give Kansas City a good chance to win most Sundays.

Continue reading "One more thing on Alex Smith…"

Obviously, Andy Dalton is not the next Peyton Manning

We could spend all day on this one, really. But we won't, because quite frankly, anyone dumb enough to buy that Andy Dalton is Peyton Manning 2.0 won't be swayed by our logic.

So, just a few key points, and no, this doesn't stand as proof that stats are useless.

As usual, it's instead a reminder that stats in the hands of the intellectually lazy (in this case, probably some NBC intern) can distort anything.

Continue reading "Obviously, Andy Dalton is not the next Peyton Manning"

Some perspective on just how much Denver is scoring

  • The Broncos have scored 179 points through four games, or 44.75 per game
  • Their per game scoring outputs have been 49, 41, 37, and 52
  • In 2012, Denver's highest score was 38 points in Week 17 against KC, trailed by their 37-point outburst against Oakland in Week 4
  • They didn't score their 179th point last season until the second quarter of their seventh game (at New Orleans)

Continue reading "Some perspective on just how much Denver is scoring"

STDL: Broncos upgraded a bit at QB in 2012

I wanted Tim Tebow to be a great NFL quarterback.

No, really. I did.

As Tebow's Hail Mary pass to Brandon Lloyd fell incomplete, thus ending Denver's wretched 2010 season, I was the one Broncos fan at SideBar in New York City (the birthplace of Tebowing) openly cheering the result.

Now, you're not supposed to root against your team, but Denver's draft standing was at stake - a win would have dropped the Broncos all the way from second to fifth in the 2011 Draft, and as much as we'd like to think that pick may have turned into Aldon Smith or J.J. Watt, we can be sure it would not have netted Von Miller.

Draft position aside, there was nothing to be gained out of finishing 5-11 rather than 4-12, and besides, I thought something much more important had occurred that day at the Big IF.

Continue reading "STDL: Broncos upgraded a bit at QB in 2012"

We repeat: Adrian Peterson is not the MVP

Mike Florio gave his argument this morning for why he thinks Adrian Peterson is the clear-cut MVP, and it again rests on the idea that somehow, the Denver Broncos don't need Peyton Manning as much as the Minnesota Vikings need Adrian Peterson.

In the end, Peterson’s value to his team simply outweighs Manning’s — even though Peyton once again has had a season to remember, shrewdly picking a talented team with an easy schedule and pushing the franchise to the top seed in the AFC.  Last year, however, the Broncos made it to the final eight without Manning.  This year, the Vikings would have been nothing without Peterson, a man who overcame a serious knee injury to become better than he ever was.

Moreover, at a time when we are more sensitive than ever before to the damage inflicted on the bodies of NFL players, Peterson earned every yard, foot, and inch that he gained.  Even the long runs came after he ran through a potential tackler.  Or two.  Or five.

Continue reading "We repeat: Adrian Peterson is not the MVP"

STDL: Sunday a foregone conclusion?

So, the Chiefs suck, the Broncos are well-rounded and still improving, and may be the best team in the NFL.

The kickoff time for Pats/Dolphins has been shifted to 4:25pm ET, in order to coincide with Broncos/Chiefs, and ensure that Denver has something to play for.

Should be a blowout, right?

Probably, but the Broncos were supposed to have emerged from Kansas City with more than the eight-point victory they did a month ago.

Continue reading "STDL: Sunday a foregone conclusion?"

Post-Mayan apocalypse Lard

Happy Friday, Broncos fans! Hey, so we're still all here, right?

In lieu of a full STDL column, let's take a quick look at the advanced metrics and where the Broncos and Browns stand:

Denver remains atop Brian Burke's efficiency rankings (third on offense, second on defense), with an 81% probability of beating the Browns and an 86% chance of gaining a first-round bye. Cleveland is 23rd in overall efficiency (25th on offense, 13th on defense).

PFR's Simple Rating System ranks Denver fourth overall (offense second, defense fifth), and Cleveland 25th (28th, 17th (tie)).

The Broncos remain second to the Niners in PFF's grading, but they narrowed the gap a good deal last week. Denver grades out at third on offense, and first on defense, while Cleveland ranks 23rd on offense, 11th on defense, and 17th overall.

Continue reading "Post-Mayan apocalypse Lard"

STDL: Broncos can lock up three-seed with win at Baltimore

The Broncos need to win tomorrow if they're to keep alive any hopes of gaining a top-two seed and first-round bye in this year's playoffs.

But beyond those loftiest of goals, a Denver victory tomorrow would be significant on its own, as it would ensure the Broncos of being no worse than the AFC's number-three seed in the playoffs. Denver would move to 11-3, drop Baltimore to 9-5, and also own a head-to-head tiebreaker over them, were both teams to finish with 11 wins.

The difference between a three and four seed may not seem that great at first glance, but without knowing how the rest of the AFC will shake out, it certainly could end up being a big deal.

Continue reading "STDL: Broncos can lock up three-seed with win at Baltimore"

How good are the 2012 Broncos in short yardage?

Readers of this site are well aware that we collectively favor aggression on fourth down.

One or two yards to gain, anywhere from near midfield to the opposing goal line? Go for it.

Third-and-short from within that same area? Call your play with the intent to go for it on fourth if you fail, barring a loss of yardage on third.

Peyton Manning scores touchdowns--that's all he does. Putting the ball in the hands of your punter, or at the foot of your placekicker, provides said touchdown-scorer with fewer opportunities with which to score touchdowns.

It really is that simple.

Continue reading "How good are the 2012 Broncos in short yardage?"