Stats That Don't Lie

Relative to 2014 results, Broncos face 10th hardest schedule in 2015

We tend not to put much stock into strength of schedule based upon prior seasons. But it's a figure we all get bludgeoned with throughout the year, so it's pretty much impossible to ignore completely. Anyway, here goes:

Denver's 2015 strength of schedule as measured by opponents' winning percentages is .541, which is the 10th highest figure in the league.

Continue reading "Relative to 2014 results, Broncos face 10th hardest schedule in 2015"

Why Julius Thomas should get a big deal somewhere

According to the DP and Atlanta JC, the Jaguars and Falcons are expected to be among the suitors for pending free agent Julius Thomas.

Also at the DP, Troy Renck presents some excellent thoughts about how Broncos Country continues to bury their soon-to-be-former unique threat:

Julius Thomas makes an easy villain.

Continue reading "Why Julius Thomas should get a big deal somewhere"

Just how bad of a blocker is Julius Thomas?

Pop Quiz: How bad of a blocker is Julius Thomas?

  1. Julius Thomas is a terrible blocker
  2. Julius Thomas is the worst blocker in the NFL
  3. Julius Thomas is the worst blocker in NFL history

Ask a Broncos fan these days, and it seems those are the only three options. There's no room for nuance. It doesn't matter whether he improved from 2013 to 2014, and apparently, it doesn't actually matter how well other receiving tight ends fare in blocking. Everyone's suddenly an expert on tight end blocking skills, and JULIUS THOMAS IS THE WORSTEST.

Continue reading "Just how bad of a blocker is Julius Thomas?"

First taste of Connor Barth kicking off? As expected, not good

Yes, Connor Barth made five field goals against Kansas City on Sunday night, but as The Wolf says...

After all, those five field goals were from 22, 24, 30, 33, and 37 yards. Yes, Brandon McManus missed a 33-yarder last week, but none of his other misses came on short kicks.

If you want to assume that McManus would have missed enough of those attempts to cost Denver the game, you're certainly entitled. Of course, he would have had to have missed *all of them*, so there's that.

Continue reading "First taste of Connor Barth kicking off? As expected, not good"

The Broncos are #1 in all of the rankings, again

For the second straight week, the Broncos rank #1 across every major advanced statistical ranking system.

This is pretty remarkable, and speaks to just how well Denver is playing right now.

As writers at each site explain in their own words, the 2014 Broncos have a chance to rank with the very best teams of recent vintage.

Continue reading "The Broncos are #1 in all of the rankings, again"

Fun with projections, 2014 Week 7 edition

Thursday's game against San Diego will probably be one of those 23-20 slugfests.1

That gives us just under three days to pretend the Broncos are going to continue on the exact same pace they've established over six games.

Of course, it's extra fun to do this after a 42-17 all-phases blowout win over a supposed SB contender.

Continue reading "Fun with projections, 2014 Week 7 edition"

One more thing on Alex Smith…

While going through Peter King's MMQB column just now, the following line jumped out:

He’s going to complete 64 percent or so of his throws, he’s going to limit mistakes, and he’s going to give Kansas City a good chance to win most Sundays.

Continue reading "One more thing on Alex Smith…"

Obviously, Andy Dalton is not the next Peyton Manning

We could spend all day on this one, really. But we won't, because quite frankly, anyone dumb enough to buy that Andy Dalton is Peyton Manning 2.0 won't be swayed by our logic.

So, just a few key points, and no, this doesn't stand as proof that stats are useless.

As usual, it's instead a reminder that stats in the hands of the intellectually lazy (in this case, probably some NBC intern) can distort anything.

Continue reading "Obviously, Andy Dalton is not the next Peyton Manning"

Some perspective on just how much Denver is scoring

  • The Broncos have scored 179 points through four games, or 44.75 per game
  • Their per game scoring outputs have been 49, 41, 37, and 52
  • In 2012, Denver's highest score was 38 points in Week 17 against KC, trailed by their 37-point outburst against Oakland in Week 4
  • They didn't score their 179th point last season until the second quarter of their seventh game (at New Orleans)

Continue reading "Some perspective on just how much Denver is scoring"

STDL: Broncos upgraded a bit at QB in 2012

I wanted Tim Tebow to be a great NFL quarterback.

No, really. I did.

As Tebow's Hail Mary pass to Brandon Lloyd fell incomplete, thus ending Denver's wretched 2010 season, I was the one Broncos fan at SideBar in New York City (the birthplace of Tebowing) openly cheering the result.

Now, you're not supposed to root against your team, but Denver's draft standing was at stake - a win would have dropped the Broncos all the way from second to fifth in the 2011 Draft, and as much as we'd like to think that pick may have turned into Aldon Smith or J.J. Watt, we can be sure it would not have netted Von Miller.

Draft position aside, there was nothing to be gained out of finishing 5-11 rather than 4-12, and besides, I thought something much more important had occurred that day at the Big IF.

Continue reading "STDL: Broncos upgraded a bit at QB in 2012"