Nobody Puts The Stats That Don't Lie in A Corner
This week I did the unthinkable. I watched every play, but instead of focusing on one player on each side of the ball, I watched the play over 3 or 4 times and focused on multiple players. The upside is that I was able to take all of your requests from last week.
The downside? It took a hell of a long time. Usually I get this done on Saturdays, but with the extra player analysis, you are getting it right before Sunday's games. I hope this is okay. If not, I apologize and will get next weeks Spotlight out a little earlier. But, all in the name of Bronco analysis.
Fate laughs at probabilities. -- Lytton E.G Bulwer
The defense was rock solid, the Broncos won again, and Ryan Clady was so dominate, they pulled his dreadlocks.
Somewhere Al Davis is crying like a little girl.
Not a bad week, my friends.
If you did not see last night´s game between the Colts and the Cardinals, you didn´t miss much. However, if you missed Tony Dungy breaking down the Colt´s offensive pre-snap signals, you missed a thing of beauty. Dungy essentially took all of America through Petyon Manning´s pre-snap reads, what all of the hand gestures meant, the line calls and when they are made, the 3 plays that were relayed into Manning from the sideline, how Manning determined which of the 3 plays to call from his pre-snap reads, and finally, how he figures out whether he is in man or zone coverage with the most simple of moves. It was genius.
Last week, I took a play by play look at Brandon Marshall and Champ Bailey. This week, I had originally intended to look at Ryan Clady on offense. However, he was so completely dominant, I thought it would be more interesting to see how Clady does in later weeks against better competition.
So this week I looked at Ron Fields and Ryan Harris, play by play. As I stated last week, it's quite interesting to watch a game and not pay attention to the ball. It allows you to see things from a much different perspective. For example, as you will see from the drive log, Ron Fields does not generally play NT on passing downs. Marcus Thomas subs for him. Simply by watching this substitution, one can see pre-snap (without straining to see the secondary coverage) whether Coach Nolan is thinking the offense is going to run or pass. It also allows you to see when he guesses wrong, which means Fields is trying to generate a pass rush (not really his strength). It also allows you to see when Nolan guesses right, which is most of the time. Rarely does Nolan have Fields on the field when the offense passes the ball.
In God we trust. All others must bring data.
—Robert W. Hayden
After the crazy Indy and Miami game, I'm out a little faster with the stats for Week 2. Thanks to everyone for reading these. For those that want to review the rational for why I keep track of these four stats, check out the Introduction (not perfect, but useful). In short, there is a very high correlation between winning the battle of turnovers, time of possession, third down efficiency, and field possession. By far, the most important battle is turnovers, followed by field position.
Jail House (Raider) Rock - Lebowskibronco
The warden threw a party in the county jail.
The Black Hole was there and they began to wail.
The Hutt was jumpin' and the joint began to swing.
You should've heard those knocked out Raider Fans sing.
Last week I was guilty while watching the Broncos and Bengals. While I hadn't descended into the abyss that is being a Raider fan, I made a pair of very silly mistakes:
I made snap judgements on both Champ Bailey and Brandon Marshall.
And my evidence? A few plays. For Bailey, it was one play in which he cheated to the inside on a deep out (level 3) run by Chad Ochocinco. Yes, Ocho beat him on the play (not badly). But it happened to be the only play in the entire game that Bailey got beat. The only damn play! But, of course, when you are caught up with the emotion of the game, you tend to make snap judgements like this that are not normally in your character.
I never keep a scorecard or the batting averages. I hate statistics. What I got to know, I keep in my head.
There are some stats that are meaningful, and there are some that ain't (the blood alcohol content of a Raider fan, for instance).
I'd like to bring you each week the stats that matter. These are the stats that don't lie. These aren't your QB ratings or your road/dome winning percentages. No way.
Statistics are like women; mirrors of purest virtue and truth, or like whores to use as one pleases.
There were 16 games played in Week 1. Here's the big picture with respect to Turnovers, Time of Possession, 3rd Down Efficiency, and Field Position: