Mark it Zero

The Heyward-Bey Assault Index

One statement you hear frequently from fans and from the media is that certain quarterbacks are victims of bad receivers who drop a lot of passes.   The statement was made about Kyle Orton during the first three games of 2009.  It's also a constant mantra of Chicago fans this year with Jay Cutler.   The conventional thinking is that if only Jay's receivers could hold onto the ball, the Bears would be a playoff team.

But which quarterbacks in the NFL really are the victim?  And which QBs are just playing one on TV?

For the answer to this question, I'd like to introduce you to a fun little stat called the Heyward-Bey Assault Index.

Continue reading "The Heyward-Bey Assault Index"

Mitch Berger…he’s got a “good personality”

Sometimes the hot girl at the bar is only hot because she's wearing a lot of makeup and the lights are dimmed low.  And while she looks great now, you find out later it was all show, and perhaps you just had a little too much to drink.

Her friend, on the other hand, is only slightly above-average.  She falls into the "good personality" category.  But you know she's the kind of girl you could bring home to momma. 

Which one should you choose?  

Continue reading "Mitch Berger…he’s got a “good personality”"

The Dude Abides: It’s Charger limerick time…again

Divisional opponents inspire hate.  And mockery.  So let round two of the Charger Limericks begin!

Here are five that I created.  Please feel free to make up your own.   And Chargers' fans, please participate if you have the inclination (or the intelligence).  With the beach and the surfing, one wonders if Chargers' fans can count syllables.

At the end of the season, I'll do a post with the top 10 limericks of the season for everyone to vote on.

Continue reading "The Dude Abides: It’s Charger limerick time…again"

The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 10

I can no longer sit back and allow a stats infiltration, a stats indoctrination, a stats subversion, and the international stats conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids. --General Jack D. Ripper


Last week another disaster movie, 2012, opened across the USA. This coincided with Week 10 of the NFL season. We were reminded of three important things:

  1. Do not ignore ancient warnings (apparently, the world ends)
  2. Don't give Peyton Manning a short field (apparently, the game ends)
  3. Jay Cutler's arm is a Mayan calendar (apparently, the Bears end)

The Denver Broncos have thus far avoided complete catastrophe, sitting at 6-3. But another loss, and you should probably head to the basement with all of your canned goods, bottled water, and flashlight batteries.

Continue reading "The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 10"

Why history won’t have a way of repeating itself with the 2009 Denver Broncos

Note:  This post is a joint collaboration between Douglas Lee and myself. You can't gather this much data in such a short amount of time by yourself.  So hats off to the guy that not only brings us "Horse Tracks" everyday, but gave me the very idea for this post.  

Now that the Broncos, Captain McDaniels, and First Mate Orton are sailing through some rough seas (a 2-game losing streak), you knew it was bound to happen.

Mutiny.

This shouldn't surprise you.  Perhaps you should be more surprised it took so long, given the unexpected sinking of the 2008 season, in which the Broncos drowned themselves after holding a 3-game lead through 14 weeks.

Continue reading "Why history won’t have a way of repeating itself with the 2009 Denver Broncos"

The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 9

"So including last night that's three Stats That Don't Lie incidents that didn't kill you.  Pain, or damage don't end the world, or despair, or beatings.  The world ends when you're dead.  Until then, you got more punishment in store.  Stand it like a man...and give some back."

--Al Swearengen


Week 9 of the NFL.  Every team has now played half of its schedule.  We are beginning to see which teams are looking to give out the beatings on a regular basis (New Orleans), which teams are looking to take the beatings on a regular basis (Detroit), and which teams are just looking for Tim Tebow.

The Denver Broncos?  They took another punch to the face this week, but with a 6-2 record, let's just say, I wouldn't want to find myself in a back alley with Brian Dawkins.

Welcome once again to The Stats That Don't Lie for Week 9.  These are the adamantium claws of stats. Your statistical Weapon X.  In short, these are the stats that are enough to piss off a Wolverine. They are: Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

Continue reading "The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 9"

Getting the Berger Picture: Why Josh McDaniels is smarter than you

If you were inside the head of Josh McDaniels, you might be tempted to tell everyone how smart you really are.

Then again, if you were Josh McDaniels, you'd be smart enough to shut up and keep your knowledge to yourself.  Al Davis has spies everywhere (look behind your bushes right now if you think I'm lying), so there's really no need to give up trade secrets.

During the bye week, McDaniels waived Punter Brett Kern and replaced him with (let's just say it) journeyman punter Mitch "Where's the Beef?" Berger.  In a seemingly puzzling move, Denver's starting punter was on the street.  We can all sleep well, however, knowing Kern was picked up by Tennessee in a few days.  The bad news for Kern is that he's not going to the playoffs this year.  The good news?  He'll get plenty of practice kicking with Vince Young under center.

Continue reading "Getting the Berger Picture: Why Josh McDaniels is smarter than you"

The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 8

"Sure, The Stats That Don't Lie could have stayed in the past. They could have even been king. But in their own way, they ARE king. Hail to the king, baby."

--Bruce Campbell
 
Week 8 was Halloween weekend in the NFL.  There were some tricks (more teams rolling out The Wildcat), there were some treats (Brett Favre's saccharine-laced, I love Green Bay speech), but 8 week will be best known for the number of teams that got carved up like pumpkins.
 
Including your Denver Broncos.  In what appeared to be the most ghoulish of all acts, Denver dressed up like the Oakland Raiders and scared its fans by losing all of the important statistical battles.

Continue reading "The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 8"

The Dude Abides: Week 6 Spotlight on Mike Nolan (and his adjustments)

With the bye, it gave me ample opportunity to watch every play of the San Diego/ Denver game again.  Usually I do this Spotlight post on Saturday Nights/Sunday Mornings so that people will have something to read before the game.  I decided to continue this trend, even though two weeks have passed since this game, and much of what I saw when I looked at the game again has been mentioned by others.  So I certainly don't want to take any originally credit for all of these points.

This week, I had intended to look at Chris Kuper and Robert Ayers.  However, after another week of adjustments by by Mike Nolan, I simply couldn't resist looking at what he was doing.   Everyone in the MSM continues to talk about Denver's adjustments in the second half, but what exactly did they do so differently from the first half?  Did the players just play harder? Did Phil Rivers eat a bad hot dog at halftime?  Did Dumervil find a phone booth and put on a cape?

Continue reading "The Dude Abides: Week 6 Spotlight on Mike Nolan (and his adjustments)"

The Dude Abides: Turnover margin and winning percentage

(Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love Mike Nolan)

Al Davis once said, "Don't worry about mistakes.  Just win."

The problem with this statement is, that in the NFL, when you make a mistake, you rarely win.

In fact, you lose.  A lot.

And the more mistakes you make, the more likely it is that you are going to receive a first-class, gold-plated, butt whoopin' of the sort that is reserved for pickpockets and teams quarterbacked by JaMarcus Russell.

Continue reading "The Dude Abides: Turnover margin and winning percentage"