"The process was really thorough. We took our time. It was important for me to get the right fit for our football team."
--Matt Millen, Former General Manager, Detroit Lions
Matt McGuire, over at Walter Football, is probably best known for his mock drafts. But it's his blog that I enjoy more. Recently, he had a blog entry entitled, NFL Draft Picks Are Business Investments. He wrote something that I think deserves a lot more attention:
If I gave you $4 million to invest, would you invest that money into a company that didn't care very much about what they were doing? Would you be confident about investing in a business that didn't care about customer service, their product, employee relations, employee performance and leadership?
I doubt you would - you might as well throw the $4 million into a fire.
But what if this company had a lot of upside? Would you still be willing to lose the $4 million if you could get a large return in a couple years? It's a massive risk.
How can a company that doesn't care become profitable? It's almost impossible for that to happen.
So why should we evaluate NFL Draft prospects any differently? In translation: How can an NFL player be successful if he has a very mediocre work ethic, doesn't love the game, doesn't take the process seriously, and is immature?
Fat Man blogger TJ “The Dude” Johnson posts The Dude’s Mail Revue on Thursdays, in which he takes your questions about the state of the Denver Broncos. Got a titillating question? Put a dollar bill into the Dude’s G-String and he might answer it—after bowling practice.
Hey, TJ, just give me the stats! I've noticed that with the signings of Jamal Williams, Jarvis Green, and Justin Bannan, the Broncos are getting a little long in the tooth on the defensive line. Are these guys really the answer? I mean they are really really old.
---Mike, Norman, Oklahoma
In 2005, Cade Massey and Richard Thayer, two academics from Duke and the University of Chicago, authored a fascinating and statistically-heavy paper entitled The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft. While the paper is dated, and while it has received its fair share of criticism and analysis itself, I think the most fascinating sentence from the entire 59-page paper is the biggest and most overlooked truth from the modern-day NFL:
Buying expensive players, even if they turn out to be great performers, imposes opportunity costs elsewhere on the roster.
Christmas comes only once a year. And Pete Carroll isn't donning a santa costume.
While we all might have believed last week that Brandon Marshall was worth a 1st and a 3rd round pick, two things happened in the last two days that say otherwise:
The Boldin trade, in particular, dealt what could have been a giant blow to the idea that the Broncos will be getting what we as fans hope is a fair value for the player known as The Beast.
After the jump, we'll look at the Boldin deal, it's consequences for Marshall, and what both Seattle and Denver might be considering as they discuss what Bradon Marshall is worth.
One of the most important abilities as a general manager, a coach or a scout is the ability to analyze talent. Each of these professions needs to understand what a players strengths are, what their weaknesses are, and what they will and won't be expected to be able to do. It's particularly important - and difficult - when it comes to talking about quarterbacks. What is it that makes a quarterback successful? How can you structure an understanding of how effective a player will be in 1, 2, 3 and 5 or more years from when they will be drafted? Why is it, historically, that so many quarterbacks have failed to make the leap from college to the NFL? There have been many quarterbacks who we can look at, to try to discover why it's such a difficult decision.
Penalties and turnovers hurt, like a kick to the groin. Every coach will tell you that they can kill a drive faster than a Darrius Heyward-Bey crossing route (the groin of the Oakland Raiders). In fact, you hear about penalties and turnovers so often in post-game press conferences, you would think that play calling had little do do with the results of the game.
And often this is the case. The team that does the best job executing its own individual game plan is usually the winner. Penalties and turnovers are simply markers along the way.
But when you chart every offensive play in a given season, you tend to only focus on the big picture (trends, downs and distances, player values) and forget about just how large a role penalties and turnovers really play. Each holding call, each interception and fumble, each turnover on downs, and each missed field goal--each one of them were a piece of what became the 2009 Broncos offense. So I thought that I'd take a brief moment this week in the middle of all of the draft analysis, to explore, using expected points value, penalties and turnovers.
You know I never
I never seen you look so good
You never call the plays you should
But I like it
And I know you like it too.....
If you're ever in a jam for awesomely-bad 80s music, so bad that it's actually good, you don't have to look much farther than the band Poison. This little ditty, Talk Dirty To Me, is classic lipstick metal, so shallow that it's profound. So non-existential, it's almost existential. And it's a lesson for NFL coaches.
Be aggressive. Don't play it safe. Wear eye liner.
Well perhaps the third is optional (unless your the new Al Davis hire). But the first two should be requirements for all NFL coaches.
4...3...2..1...Kyle behind us...
passing, hurling....floating weightless
calling, calling...(Denver) home...
When I put these weekly columns together, I have so much 80s music to chose from it's almost criminal. This week it was a close competition between Motley Crue's Shout at the Royal or Falco's Rock Me Kyle Orton. But ultimately I decided there simply wasn't a better way to introduce the 2009-passing game of the Denver Broncos than with reference to this song by Peter Schilling in 1984, which was also covered in 2009 by Shiny Toy Guns. I personally could listen to either version 50 times in succession--the equivalent to the number of seasons the Raiders will wait for the playoffs--and never grow bored.
He just ran....He ran all night and day....
...Knowshon couldn't get away.
Perhaps the most disturbing part of the 2009 Broncos season (aside from knowing that Raiders fans continue breeding) was the lack of a running game. You've heard the storyline, but let's review the major plot points again:
Well I'm a stat-grinder, play-cruncher.
Now can we really keep our wide receiver?
Got no brains, he's insane.
McDaniels says that he's one big pain.
Brandon's like a laser, a 6-streamin' razor
He's got a mouth like an alligator.
But I want it louder. Sack power
Should we keep Elvis when it strikes the hour?
There are a lot of opinions on Brandon Marshall, Elvis Dumervil, and Tony Scheffler these days. Despite Marshall's verbal group hug during the Pro Bowl, the prevailing wisdom is still that the Broncos are going to look to trade (after tender offers) both Marshall and Scheffler, while making their best effort to retain the man-child sack leader in the NFL.