Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 10

I can save you three hours this morning.

The Broncos will win 15-14.  That's a 52.07% chance.

That's what the probabilities say.  What does everyone else say?

Hit the jump and find out.  

Enjoy the game today, everyone.

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Fat Off the Bone: Week 10 - The Chiefs and the zone read

A wise man once said, "Certain things have come to light, man."

He could have been talking about defending the zone read.

As I scouted the Kansas City Chiefs this week, I could have focused on the Chiefs' running game or Matt Cassel's limited ability to stretch the field.  Instead, it made more sense to continue to make fun of the Oakland Raiders.  That's because the Raiders' stupidity is as instructive as any scouting report.  This is especially true when considering the zone read.  Let's face it.  The Chiefs are going to see a ton of it tomorrow.

The Broncos--if we believe Jeff Legwold--ran some version of the zone read 17 times against the Raiders.  Football coaches are creatures of habit: they go with what works.  So unless the Broncos suddenly decide they want to unleash Tim Tebow's pocket awareness, it's likely they are going to pull the same stunts they did against the Raiders.

Will it work against the Chiefs?  Well, dude, we just don't know.

Until we find out, though, let's take a quick look at how they might defend it.

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The Daily Lard 11-12-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Pat KirwanMike LombardiMike SilverClark Judge, and Peter King preview the week's games: Kirwan wonders if Tebow could run for 100 yards on a frequent basis, Judge is picking the Broncos, and Silver thinks Penn State acted just like the Catholic Church in trying to first protect itself rather than do the right thing. Lombardi thinks the Chargers are suffering from a lack of talent at this juncture. Plus, Judge thinks it's ridiculous that the league scheduled three games for San Diego in 11 days, and it's hard to dispute that.

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Digesting the Chiefs

Happy Friday, friends.  Today we Digest the Kansas City Chiefs, who’ve had a really weird season.  They lost key players in Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki and Jamaal Charles early on, and they lost their first three games huge, being outscored by a total of 109-27 in those games.  They then went on to win four in a row, beating Minnesota and San Diego at home, and Indianapolis and Oakland on the road.  Just when it seemed that they’d figured out how to play good undermanned football, they got crushed 31-3 at home by the Dolphins last Sunday.  As TJ would say in Gut Reactions, who the heck knows?

Today, we’re going to try to figure out what the Chiefs really are, and what we can expect to see on Sunday afternoon.  Really, what do you call a team that’s been blown out three times, blown out the first-place Raiders once (when they caught them on a Kyle Boller/rusty Carson Palmer day), and gone 3-1 in games decided by less than five points?  That’s what we’re going to try to figure out today.

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STDL: Week 10 - Broncos at Chiefs

Welcome to the Week 10 Edition of The Stats That Don't Lie. Let's be blunt, here. This is one of those games that nobody outside of Broncos and Chiefs fans want to watch (Gators?). Denver and Kansas City rank 30th and 31st according to Brian Burke's efficiency numbers, respectively, ahead of only the winless Colts.

I'd like to make a point about these metrics (and any stats) - the goal here isn't to predict what's going to happen in any given game (win/lose/magnitude), because no set of numbers can do that - rather, it's just some commentary on what's likely to happen based upon past performance. These numbers are a guide to show you how efficient teams are in the various phases of the game, and of course a team can break out of a pattern of ineptitude or suddenly fail in a phase they've thrived in at any moment. Just because the Broncos don't fare well in turnover differential overall doesn't mean they can't win that battle on any given Sunday (like last week).

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The Daily Lard 11-11-11

Happy Veterans Day, Broncos fans, and our sincerest thanks to all those who have served! Carson Palmer apparently shook off some more rust this week, as he looked quite sharp last night in leading the Raiders to a 24-17 victory over the Chargers last night. Palmer threw for 299 yards and two scores, while Michael Bush had a ridiculous 242 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. As far as the Broncos' playoffs chances go, this was probably the best outcome since they've already split with Oakland and would have to have an outright better record than San Diego should they again lose to them (meaning, season sweep and first tiebreaker lost).

Doug Farrar reminds us that Palmer made a bunch of great throws on Sunday too, so this wasn't exactly like the phoenix rising from the ashes or anything. Ryan Wilson says the game was a bit of vindication for Hue Jackson, as Palmer looked almost worthy of the crazy trade Oakland made to acquire him, if only for one night at this point. Eli Kaberon says Palmer did a lot to silence critics like himself. Christmas Ape found last night to be a wonderful three hours for Philip Rivers haters, and of course some dude got stabbed outside the stadium during the game.

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Open Thread - Thursday Week 10

Enjoy the game, everyone!

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Thursday Musings: More on the Zone Read; a complete victory

I thought I’d share just a few more thoughts on Sunday’s victory in Oakland. I usually stay with the offensive lines right now, but there were a number of things that really deserved to be looked at after the Broncos took it to the Raiders right in their own home. I'll start with a reference from one of the OL pieces that the plays Denver ran were also part of - the Zone-Read running game of Wisconsin.

Barry Alvarez

Alvarez is the Athletic Director at the University of Wisconsin. I quoted some of his work a few weeks ago and mentioned him again earlier today - he took over as the head coach of the Badgers in 1990 and was trying to figure out his offensive direction when he, much like Denver coach John Fox, decided to put the onus of the team’s offense on the running game. Why? It wasn’t a preference one way or the other for a certain type of attack, although Fox has been rightfully accused of that. It was simply a matter of logic meeting necessity. Alvarez and his coordinators and position coaches met and talked it out. They all came to the same conclusion that Denver did, unusual though it is in the modern game. Alvarez explains:

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Fattening Up More on Ryan Clady

After bearing up through the first two weeks of Tim Tebow struggling as Denver's starting quarterback, Sunday's game was a grand change. It was the first time I've seen the Broncos play like a complete team in a long time. It was good to see, and I can't wait to see how much they can hold up to it consistently - they were able to put all the pieces together and despite Oakland’s protests that they expected it, it clearly caught their players off guard on the field. Stellar performances by the OL, Willis McGahee and Tebow, as well as a couple of nice catches by Eric Decker and an outstanding performance for Eddie Royal (with a tie-breaking punt return TD and a TD reception) rounded off a resounding route of the much-disliked (okay, hated) division rival.

The best part of the entire game was to see each aspect of the team (offense, defense, and special teams - even with that punting mishap near the end zone) contribute greatly to the final outcome. Without any one of them coming through on the right plays, the game goes down as a loss. With all three working together, the Raiders did not seem to know what hit them. It was by far Tebow’s best all-around performance to date and Denver’s best game of the season.

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The Daily Lard 11-10-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Andrew Brandt points out that the deadline has passed for teams to extend players' contracts and confine the financial impact to the 2011 salary cap. This means it's likely Denver will allow Eddie Royal, Daniel Fells, Marcus Thomas, Brodrick Bunkley, Wesley Woodyard, Mario Haggan, Joe Mays, and Matt Prater become free agents, among others (not that it's a shock). Based upon their respective roles, age and what interest they'd likely command on the open market (not much, frankly), I'd say the only one I'd like to have seen locked up would be Prater - and Denver can always franchise the guy if they're unable to reach agreement with him after the season. Then again, the team is still able to work on a new deal with any of these players until the day before the season finale, and Denver has plenty of cap room - so any guaranteed money would be prorated over the length of the contract rather than assigned to the 2011 cap.

Obviously it'd be nice to hang onto most, if not all of those other guys, but the question is at what cost and rather than which potential draft/FA replacements? Even if Denver were interested in keeping Royal, it's safe to presume he'll want to test the FA waters to find a situation where he can start instead of potentially being stuck behind Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas in a run-first (and second) offense. The question to consider is whether there will be better, cheaper and/or younger options available in the offseason, and the only resounding "no" in that regard is Prater.

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