Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 6

The good news?  The Broncos can't lose this week.

The bad news?  They can't win either.

A bye week in the NFL is like going to jail in the game Monopoly.  You have to sit there and watch the rest of your family roll the dice, move their pieces (why the hell did everyone want to play the horse and rider?), and laugh, while you have to wait your turn.

At least in Monopoly you can roll doubles to get out and play again.  During the NFL bye week, you're just stuck.

Welcome to another edition of Fat Pickins, where we climb the stairway to crazy.  Here you get two things--our picks and probability.

Ask me no questions, and I'll tell you no lies.

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The Daily Lard 10-16-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! I had a rather disappointing Twitter exchange last night with former Denver GM Ted Sundquist, who had written on his own site earlier in the day that Brandon Lloyd "has a history of less than “exemplary” behavior in Dove Valley" and in response to a reader's comment went on to call Lloyd "disgruntled" and speculate that Denver would even consider deactivating the WR or releasing him outright. In yesterday's Lard, I had written that Sundquist was "sadly perpetuating the myths about Lloyd being a bad guy". Later in the day, Sundquist tweeted:

@craigary @IAOFM Nice blog, but I wouldn't "perpetuate the myth" if I didn't know what I was saying. Would never do that to a player.

This is fair. Ted spent 16 years in the Denver organization, and he presumably still has plenty of knowledgeable contacts there. So, perhaps there's some truth to what Ted wrote yesterday. I'm certainly in no position to dispute that, and I won't. But, Ted's writing now, and on his own site - and he's the first person to paint Lloyd as a malcontent in Denver. Yes, Brandon arrived with a less-than-stellar reputation; but again, we've had over two years to judge the guy for ourselves. There was no hint of Lloyd being disgruntled or having demanded a trade when Mike Klis broke the news the other day that Brandon was being offered around.

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Fat Off the Bone: Week 6 - Tim Tebow goes here so this page will get more clicks

Despite being well bred, well read, conversant in all manner of topics in multiple languages, and possessing an uncanny and impeccable taste for the finer luxuries in this world, I admit--during moments of weakness--a passing yet substantive fancy for tramping and a penchant for lap-dance discussions;  after all, there exist, as a matter of due course, those occasions upon which nary a second should pass without thrusting erect (oh yeah) and headstrong into those crevices of the human mind that have proven baser and more carnal.

In short, it's fun to argue.  I find great comfort in it.  If one can't anonymously jump on the internet and falsely lord over others with jargon, statistics, and outright buffoonery, where can one truly suck the marrow out of life?  Nowhere, that's where.  One's girlfriend or wife (or special lady friend) simple won't stand for it.  So on a Saturday like this, there are two options: 1) rake the lawn; 2) argue about Tim Tebow.

I'm picking the latter, thank you.

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Appreciating Mr. B. Lloyd Lard 10-15-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! No real news on the Broncos front, or developments in the Brandon Lloyd situation, but I thought I'd share some thoughts on Lloyd. Brandon has been a truly remarkable player for Denver, and it's been a shame to see folks dragging his name around like he's a malcontent or more of a "me guy" than any other NFL player. Sure, he never really did much of anything pre-Denver and never lived up to his billing, and perhaps he was something of an unhappy camper while playing for three different teams in six years. But really, who cares about that stuff? This is Brandon's third season in Denver, so don't we have enough to go on from seeing him on the field and hearing/reading what he has to say every week to form a true opinion of the guy?

For one, the guy spent 14 weeks on the inactive list in 2009 while making the minimum $620K (plus a $50K signing bonus) and we never heard a peep. He then goes out in 2010 and produces one of the best, if not the best, season(s) of any WR in the league and receives a $755K salary, which was the minimum for his experience level (he later received a $500K incentive for making the Pro Bowl). This year, he is playing for a $1.395M salary in the final year of the two-year contract he signed with Denver after having dressed twice in 2009. Yet, we have never heard any inkling of a complaint from either Lloyd or his agent about playing time, his salary or his contract in the 2.3 seasons he's been a Bronco, during which he's made about $2.36M so far and would make about $3M total through the end of this season.

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You Got Served: Tebow Time, Part 2

Happy Friday, friends, and welcome back for a bonus Serving.  As promised on Tuesday, I’ve come up with six more Tebow-friendly plays, and I’ll have some thoughts at the end pulling it all together.  First of all, though, I wanted to address a stupid notion from Trent Dilfer that appeared in the Don Banks article that Doug referenced in today’s Lard.

Dilfer knows what he’s looking at, and he’s a good judge of the ability to throw the ball, and of proper mechanics.  His premise in this quote is beyond stupid, though.

His biggest issue will be, every good passing offense in this league, without exception, is based on rhythm, timing and location. There's a rhythm to a pass play, there's a timing to a pass play, and there's a location the ball and the receiver needs to be on a pass play. And those are the three things he really struggles with.'

I think Dilfer’s point that every good current NFL passing game is based on timing is dubious, but I’m not going to lose focus on arguing that.  My big problem with this statement is the inherent assumption that just because things have trended in one direction throughout a lot of the NFL that everybody has to go with that trend.

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The Daily Lard 10-14-11

Happy Friday, Broncos fans! Don Banks wrote a lengthy article about Tim Tebow's prospects for the next 11 games, getting analysis from skeptics Brian Billick and Trent Dilfer and the more optimistic Jabar Gaffney, who of course played with Tebow last season and worked out with him over the offseason. Dilfer believes Tebow will have some success early on, but that adjusting to his skills will only be a matter of time for opposing defenses. He also thinks that Tebow's struggles with "rhythm, timing and location" will ultimately be his undoing, and that although Tim has the talent, he's just not consistent enough to be successful at this level. Dilfer goes on to say that Tebow would have had a better chance in the deep-drop NFL of the 1980s, but today's precision passing game based upon timing and shorter drops does not suit him well.

Billick, meanwhile, thinks that Tebow's ability to extend plays is going to end up getting him injured, and he finds it nonsensical that folks are comparing Tim to Cam Newton, whom Billick says is a much better thrower than is Tebow.

Finally, Gaffney says Tebow was exhibiting more poise and a quicker release during the offseason, and that Tim "can make every throw out there." Gaff also points out that the young QB's mobility gives his receivers confidence in that he can keep plays going long enough to find them open. Obviously, we have to hope that Jabar is correct and not just sticking up for his former mate and fellow Gator...

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Brandon Lloyd reportedly on trading block

According to Mike Klis, the Broncos are looking to move WR Brandon Lloyd, with Carolina and Tennessee reportedly among the three or four teams showing interest. Denver is reportedly seeking a draft choice in the third-to-fifth-round range in return for Lloyd, who is playing out the final year of his contract and is making a relatively meager $1.395M this season for a player of his skill and production levels. The trade deadline is Tuesday, and apparently the Broncos and Lloyd's representatives have discussed a contract extension but have not been close to any agreement. Denver is expecting to have their full complement of receivers available for their next game, including Eddie Royal (who is also unsigned beyond this year) and Demaryius Thomas. Are the Broncos setting Tim Tebow up for failure by possibly dealing away the best pair of hands on the team? We'll have to wait and see...

Tim Tebow Random Quote Generator

Ever wish you had a hundred or more Tim Tebow quotes in one place?

Wish no more.  Game on.  Welcome to our new Tim Tebow Random Quote Generator (TTRQG).  For a new Tebow quote, simply click on the button called "Work Harder," because, after all, you don't deserve another quote from Tebow if you're too lazy to click.

Yea, though you walk through the valley of the shadow of Oakland, you will fear no evil, for Tebow art with you.  

Enjoy this crack pipe after the jump.

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The Tebow Billboards - Part Deux

If you didn't notice on Tuesday, my billboards changed the entire course of the Denver Broncos.

That's right, my billboards from last week were the primary reason John Fox made the change at quarterback.

What?  You don't agree?  Well, blame it on Kyle Orton's 21.0 quarterback rating if you want to, but I know I played my part.

I was just getting warmed up, too.  Here's another round of Tebow billboards on the house.

Feel free to enter your own billboard slogan in the comments below, but be warned:  you might put your eye out.

Or worse, you might pull a groin.  Then were will you be?

Enjoy!

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The Daily Lard 10-13-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! In his latest Walkthrough, Mike Tanier reimagines the Denver QB change and the Peyton Hillis saga in Cleveland, among other dramas. Plus, he diagrams the final play from Sunday's game and says it was all about Knowshon Moreno's excellent pass blocking. But of greater interest to us, Tanier offers his take on the whole Orton/Tebow thing - he believes John Fox should have started Tebow from Week 1 of the preseason, and that he instead went with Orton out of stubbornness and needed Orton to be a resounding success to get away with it.

Meanwhile, Tanier is sticking with his evaluation that Tebow will not make for a good pro quarterback, and he writes that none of Tim's passes Sunday were on time, and that all followed some confused backpedaling. But he does point out that designed runs were quite effective with Tebow and leaves open the possibility that the young QB's "running and his intangibles make him a viable quarterback." Tanier also stresses that Mike McCoy must tailor the Denver offense to highlight Tebow's strengths rather than try to foist the offense as operated by Orton upon Tim. Ultimately, Tanier just wants to be able to write about either the Broncos' future with Tebow or which QB they'll be taking come April - and a long look at Tim starting next week is the only way to get there. Sounds good to me.

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